OK Gang, I’m not a Conspiracy Freak BUT the Anthrax Case Raises some Serious?????????

by John Galt

August 6, 2008

Gang, I am NOT one of the tinfoilers by and large. I do not believe that the government conducted 9-11. I do not believe that one person was responsible for Oklahoma City. I do not believe that Janet Reno was the final decision maker for Waco.

Those are simple enough.

But I just read the affidavits for the Bruce Ivins investigation which you can read here:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc…7-08062008.pdf

I’m sorry but there is a huge, gaping freaking hole in it. How can the FBI conduct an investigation of the individual in question and not put one key piece of information into the affidavit:

Where are the gate logs for Fort Detrick, MD?

They noted his “unusual” working hours. Granted, they are bizarre then again so are the habits of almost every scientist most of us have ever known in our lives.

The dates they put in the documents are interesting. Wonderful. Interesting but not conclusive. Why? This is just my opinion but it is approximately a 6 hour trip barring a nightmare in Baltimore or Philadelphia with traffic to and from the mailbox used in Princeton, NJ.

While the documents analyze the daily lab access in September 2001 etc. for the scientist, I find it peculiar (as most people with more than 2 working brain cells) that the work schedule inside the base and gate access logs were not obtained to present within the affidavit to any grand jury which may or may not have indicted him.

Also, I’m not a government scientist nor worked within a bio-warfare lab in my life, but does anyone find it just a tad unusual that we do not have better tabs on these scientists such as a daily register or on-duty roster with accounting for his location and activities on a daily basis? At least where are the entry and exit time stamps for his entering and leaving Fort Detrick? If someone is going to tell me that the logs “just vanished” then put me in the conspiracy camp.

The “closing” of this case raises more questions than answers. If you look at the big picture, AND THIS IS JUST MY OPINION, it sounds like we could be covering the bases with another politically correct cover up for the Religion of Peace since it has been widely known and acknowledged from laptops that our soldiers found in Afghanistan after the invasion that AQ and other terrorist groups were seeking biological warfare agents.

Call me tinfoil now if you would like but think. There are more questions now than answers.

Paging Fox Mulder, paging Fox Mulder……

FYI, pictures of the envelopes in question and again, more questions than answers…

http://www.handwriting.com/anthrax.html

It’s Time for a Polaroid Moment

By John Galt

August 4, 2008

Instead of just reflecting on the usual rants, raves and more, I thought this would be a good day to post up some of those charts with a little commentary that only us boring historian types find interesting. I hope you enjoy the perspectives I am trying to present because to by quite honest, I had a little hope for our future.

Until I started reading all of the news and reports on Sunday.

1. Let’s Review Inflation and Monetary Reports 

So you think the government CPI data is bad? Well, let’s look at some charts.

Well ,using their own data, it would appear that inflation has been sufficiently out of control since Paul Volcker brought it under control. Historically speaking to unwind this much inflationary pressure will take another, much bolder, Volcker like action yet we can not do that without wiping out the banking system. More on the banks later. Why is this the case? Let’s look at the remaining monetary indicators since the Fed disposed of M3, using M1, M2 and MZM.

Don’t see a downward spike there yet. Let’s try M2…

Nope, not quite there yet. MZM?

Hmmm, money stocks still seem to be accelerating. And if you use a ruler, you can see the similarity to the CPI chart at the top of this series. Of course we could not possibly have that much currency in circulation either. Then again, let’s just take a peek at this last chart in the monetary series that indicates that there is only one direction, thus far, regarding our monetary policy history of the last 25 plus years:

Just keep that snapshot in your mind and let’s see if there are any currency comparisons that illustrate just how bad the dollar has been devalued. For the sake of argument, let us pick on an innocent land locked little nation where billions of our dollars have been hidden from the IRS according to recent news reports. How does the Swiss Franc look historically against the dollar?

Ouch. We are below the recessionary levels of the past and in truth below the horrid inflationary periods of our past. I guess this means the Swiss do not want to drink the Kool-Aid and destroy their currency now. Since Bubblevisions 1, 2 and 3 all feel we must follow the popular US Dollar Index, let us look at some of the Trade Weighted version to get a clearer, more accurate picture.

Pretty darned ugly. And that is against the major currencies.  Once again please note we are well below all previous recessionary levels. The fantasy that the commodity bull market is over is about to surprise the cheerleaders once again because the fact that we have displayed a willingness to print like there is no tomorrow and issue debt like we will ever have enough to pay for it guarantees that the monetary inflation will accelerate. Just because there is “demand destruction” it does not necessarily mean that the prices of the goods needed for an individual’s survival have to drop also. The dollar  may drop into a black hole as other nations do everything in their power to divert their financial resources into tangibles, as Helicopter Ben offers no indication he will pull back from the brink and with the economy slowing along with no indication at all that we will “defend the dollar” the box he has put himself into is obvious. The credit crisis is about to undergo the next major lurch into burning death and a lot of people who played the side that it was “over” are about to go down like a Kamikaze pilot in the gun sight of a P-51.

2. It’s the Economy SLOWING Stupid

You hear the cheerleaders and commentators night after night saying such clever phrases like “it’s contained” or “a bottom is in sight” or “housing is about to turnaround”, etc., etc..

Horsehockey. This is only the start of the recession. The most over used words on television and radio now are “bottom” and “capitulation.” The fact is that we have neither sniffed nor recognized either of them. There has been no mass liquidation of soured assets. The charade pulled by Merill Lynch was a public relations stunt of unheard of proportions and now they are acting quickly as many investors and politicians are demanding an investigation. I hope we get one. As I would like some sort of public accounting to confirm that TSLF loans were not used by Merrill to loan to Lone Star to finance the CDO purchase.

That story is for the lawyers to investigate and it is doubtful we will get an honest accounting of this in our lifetime. So why do I insist that things are just now slowing? Let’s take a look at private business inventories:

That chart indicates the change in private inventories. Thank you FRED for that one. I was not aware of just how drastically this chart would indicate the suspected change when I first looked for the data. If you note, that rate of change is well below recessionary indicators of the past, keeping in mind the size of our economy since the start date of the chart. To analyze this further, let us look at the percentage rate of change:

That should be a major hint that the sunshine and lollipops crowd that perhaps private industry has recognized the enemy that inflation presents to the system since PPI has been one heck of a lot worse than CPI in recent years no matter how much you exclude food, energy, lollipops, sunshine, fresh air and widget dust. Now that we have notice that private industry has seen the slowdown coming and is trying to adjust their inventories for it, let us look at some other charts, courtesy once again of the Fed.

I elected to only use the 5 year chart so we do not argue apples and oranges about the 91 or 79-82 recessionary periods. The most recent recession pretty much ended in 2003 and as you can see we are accelerating upwards not in short term unemployment but in the numbers of people out of work over 6 months. If you look at the BLS Unemployment Data release last week under Table A-12, Section U6 “Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers” it is now up to
a very recessionary 10.3% rate. Time for another Polaroid moment…

As you can see from this graph, we have surpassed the unemployment levels in the last recession and this time I fear that unknown distortion to the data is the fact that we have upwards of anywhere between two to five million more 1099’s or “independent contractors” in various fields from programming to plumbing that are being under counted as they are not eligible to file for unemployment nor accounted for in any BLS statistical models. Then add in the additional five to ten million uninvited guests, invited by Jorge, and you can see that one aspect of the employment picture that is not measurable and very muddled is the population of illegals doing lower end jobs that unemployed Americans normally would resort to during slower economic times. That will build a new amount of social pressure unseen in prior economic downturns but that is for another posting at another time.

If you would like another picture of the duration of unemployment, no problem. It just validates the chart above even more so.

As the chart above illustrates based on historical norms, we are well into recessionary territory but have no fear “it’s contained and we are not in a recession until we see two quarters of consecutive declines in GDP.” If I hear that one more time, I’ll be cleaning puke off of my monitor. For those that continue to use this definition, I offer one more time, the true definition per the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research):

 ”A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

The 2001 recession NEVER experienced two consecutive periods of decline of GDP into negative territory yet the main stream media persists in using this convenient conclusion to proclaim their ignorance of fact.
So of those who are working, just how many hours are they working?

Better pray those wages accelerate soon or we are looking at a nightmare; an under utilized wage earning class who are making less than they did fifteen or twenty years ago due to the inflation tax but working harder and fewer hours to earn less. Not good, not good at all. But what about all the “overtime” they get? Let us check out the manufacturing sector, where overtime and higher output go hand in hand:

Well, with the decline in manufacturing and this chart that speaks volumes. We are below the hours of overtime in the last recession approximately and there is no indication that we are about to see this chart turn upwards. For those of us on a salary however, there is not enough room on this graph or this page to illustrate the “overtime” we are putting in now to bail water out of the Titanic with our sand buckets. The reflection on just how bad things are about to get is obvious when one looks at the housing statistics that are not often discussed and the situation the banks find themselves in now.

3. Paging the NAR, Your House is Not in Order, Nor On Order, Nor Sold, Nor Financed, Etc….

First the really bad news….

That is not a pretty picture for single family home sales.Nor does it appear that with the firecracker called WCI going off in the distance that supply is going to be in shortage any time soon. Let us get one more perspective on this:

Now the good news:

It appears we may have found a temporary bottom but it is too early to tell. Just because a permit is issued, it does not mean the building can or will be built. We can compare that chart in about six to nine months to the housing starts chart to get a better picture. Either way, the data indicates a recession has or is occurring. The problem is that the stress on the banking system may prevent the credit necessary from being freed up to loan to individuals unless a government sponsored enterprise agrees to buy every shanty on the side of the road. Oops, they already did!

4. Banking Troubles Blowing Bubbles, or Dear Ben, Can We Keep our TSLF for Ten Years Please?

Now the obvious consequence of a slowing economy in an inflationary environment with a deflationary housing market which will soon have a deflationary commercial real estate market joining it.

People are over extended.

Duh.

Understatement of the century. How understated?

Not good. Even if 5% default, not good. But in a deep recession 10, 12 or 20% default rates would not be unreasonable. That will not sit well with the banking system and starts to paint the fiscal stimulus camp into a major corner.

When did the problem start? Here is my theory:

It was about this time on the graph that I have highlighted that the first hints of a solvency crisis began to rear its ugly head. The consumers were applying for and receiving credit cards in record numbers. Automobile manufacturers, desperate to rotate inventory and continue producing at a rate far beyond demand offered 72, 78 and yes 84 month loans along with creative finance options on leases of every variety. The SUVs had to move so why not just “get them off the lot” was the theory. Then add in the housing circus that was peaking with “Flip this Outhouse” being the theory of the day and the first of the Subprimers calling up the banks and saying “Uh, nice house but I do not understand this word ‘reset’ that is in this letter you sent me. I can not afford a house with payments of $3400 per month on my Bennigan’s waiter’s salary. Care to cut it back and just rent it to me?” What is the hint that this problem is starting to get really bad? The chart above just illustrates that Debt Service Payments are declining as a percentage of disposable income at that time. Why is that important? Because in a lot of cases, the debtor just walked away and quit paying. It is that simple.

How are the banks faring now? Let’s look at nonperforming loans…..

As you can see from the graphs above, the charts indicate that the non-performing loans and assets are accelerating upwards while revenue streams due to tightened credit restrictions are starting to constrict. Maybe the Fed can create a ten year temporary loan facility to prevent those bonuses from going “buy-bye!” And if you think this is bad, think of the consequences of numerous small banks failing again. The small banks were supposed to screen applicants and prevent unqualified applicants from getting homes, cars, etc. at every level. But with “securitization” also know as pass-the-buck-to-the-Chicom-Indian-Saudi-Franco-Brazilian sucker theory, who cares who got what? They could approve people living under bridges for $300,000 homes and if they only had to keep ten percent of the liability on their books, they figured that the government would bail them out thanks to the new Greenspan Benefactor Policy. The problem with losing the local banks for day to day dealings and having to deal with the mega banks will become a fact of everyday life when you try to get a loan and have to explain everything to “Emma” in Mumbai at extension 2197.

The harsh reality is that the next shoe is dropping now, as I warned about and predicted well over a year plus ago. The commercial real estate failures always follow residential ones and since we are only halfway through the housing crisis, just wait and see how severe the commercial real estate crash is about to become. Per a Reuters story today, Delinquent US Property Loans Rise in June, the pace of defaults is starting to increase now up to 0.45%. While that does not sound like much, it is the relative impact you have to pay attention to. 0.45% to Citigroup is nothing; to a small undercapitalized bank that is borderline in FDIC violation of reserve requirements that dollar figure could trip it over the edge. In other words, one major project failing could trigger action at the local level due to too much bad paper on the books.

The reality of this is illustrated here:

The pace is starting to creep into historically recessionary territory. Add that in with residential weakness and this could get very, very ugly and much faster than the Fed or Congress can respond.

This chart:

Indicates that we are now above the 2001 recessionary levels. At that time though we did not have the residential real estate problems we are witnessing now.

There you have it boys and girls. I see no indication that without a massive inflationary effort will the problems illustrated above be reversed or prevented from worsening. Now that the FDIC is in action starting to clean up the obvious, one has to wonder at what point and pain level will the American people accept an Argentine style inflationary spiral to avoid the deflationary pain that is needed to clean the system out? I just do not see a student of history, especially the Great Depression, like Ben Bernanke making the same mistakes of his predecessors which allows the corrections to occur and spiral beyond the Federal Reserve’s control. Thus I see nothing to turn off the monetary spigots at this time. They will inflate and if the Fed refuses to, the politicians will introduce a fiscal monetary stimulus which will have the same impact by flooding the nation with money for projects we can not afford.

On the good news, one more graph. Someone is still hiring at least:

Prepetorial#21: Wet Foot, Dry Foot

Prepetorial#21: Wet Foot, Dry Foot

August 3, 2008

By John Galt

Juan and Isabella were exhausted, but the land they had been seeking for escape finally appeared over the horizon. The lights of the big city were way off to the West so they figured that their little boat with thirteen other refugees was safe and sound. Once they were ashore the group pushed the boat back out to sea and started to move inland, hoping to find some safety inland and to merge with the local population to find the underground help stations rumored to be there. As the group passed through the first clearing in the light of dawn the sound of weapons firing caused everyone to run and dive for cover in the underbrush. Juan volunteered, much to the consternation of his wife, to go ahead of the shaken souls to see what was going on. As Juan peered over the rise he saw a bunch of men dressed in what looked like hazmat suits with flamethrowers burning bodies. Just as he was going to creep back to the group “bang” another salvo of rifle fire and after shuffling to his left about fifteen yards, he could see another area in the field where people were being shot by a firing squad and the bodies being hauled off and burned by the strange men in the hazmat suits.

“My God” Juan thought to himself “what has happened to our world?” The soldiers were shooting men, women, infants, the elderly, it did not matter. What freaked him out is why in the world would they be burning the bodies. The smell of the pyre started to drift towards the group by the time he returned to them with the horrific news. Juan held Isabella’s hand as he spoke, “Everyone, please listen. We have to head towards the forested areas over there. The soldiers are shooting everyone, and I mean everyone then burning the bodies to hide the evidence.” The one family that was with them with the three and four year old children who burdened the trip but behaved well immediately shot up to their feet and started running, carrying the two kids on their backs. The rest of the group then took off like scalded dogs in every direct. Juan looked at Isabella and she knew what he was going to say and without a word they started running into the woods without paying attention to which direction they were heading, other than away from the gunfire.

It seemed like days running through the tropical forest in the 92 degree heat, but in reality it was only about eight hours when they came upon a small town which looked like a tourist town. They noticed what appeared to be a spring training baseball facility just to the left of them. Isabella said “How do I look?” Juan said “Gorgeous baby. Let’s see if all this running from the dictatorship has paid off.”

As they walked into town, nobody really gave them a second look. Then they both noticed the checkpoint over by the road leading to the baseball stadium and a sudden surge of soldiers in trucks, all wearing what looked like surgical masks. As they appeared around them, the citizens started running into shops, offices and back to their homes, locking the doors and looking for cover.

Juan said to Isabella “Let’s head over to the trinket shop over there and act like tourists.” As they started to walk into the door of the shop a stern voice yelled “HALT! DO NOT MOVE! PUT YOUR HANDS ON TOP OF YOUR HEAD!” The same instructions were repeated again in Spanish much to Juan’s surprise. The two of them dropped to their knees, more so in obedient exhaustion than anything else and put their hands behind their heads. Before either of them could utter another word, everything went black as they were both tasered into unconsciousness. Or so they thought….

Juan woke up in a tent, stripped totally naked with his hands handcuffed behind him as he sat in a wooden chair. As the fog started to clear he heard a scream elsewhere in the compound of a woman but his full attention was turned forward to the officer who barked out at him “SPANISH OR ENGLISH?” Juan, still groggy from the unwelcome nap looked up at the soldier and said “English is fine, how long have I been out?” The officer snapped back in a gruff voice, “You can address me as Captain from this moment on. You have been asleep for an hour. We tranquilized you and sterilized your body. We want to know how many of you snuck ashore illegally in your boat?” Juan was stunned. As he started to answer the question the Captain said “And if you lie, it is of no matter. If you lie, you will be dead in two hours. If you cooperate, you may get a chance to apply for repatriation.” Juan perked up “My wife also?” The Captain said “Yes, your wife included, of course. We are not animals, but we have been forced into extraordinary circumstances.”

Juan immediately ratted out his fellow boaters. He spoke about the couple in their fifties looking for a new start after losing their business to the new regime. Juan then told the story of the family of four who wanted to farm again. The story of his wife and his trials and tribulation. And then other five who the Captain just nodded and took a few notes about. After it was over the Captain barked out “Recordings off! You can proceed with the private here and he will get you some clothes and reunite you with your wife. You will be kept in a holding cell for one hour pending test results. If I were you, I would keep my mouth shut until you receive further instructions.”

Juan just nodded, put his head down and shuffled out of the room with the private. He was given a chance to use the community shower and then issued a white jumpsuit with an orange stripe down the middle of the back about an hour later. When he saw Isabella, she was in tears and just ran into his arms. “Oh honey…” she started to speak and Juan said “tell me about it all later, just keep quiet until we get our new instructions.”

Juan was sitting with her just holding her while she sobbed. A man in a white lab coat with a UN emblem on it said to them, please come with me. Juan and Isabella followed where they were informed that all of the tests were negative and they could proceed to the boarding area. As they did so, they noticed a large group of people, speaking various languages all happy and laughing as the fresh air of freedom laid ahead. “Juan and Isabella Castillo, report to desk 19″ the voice from the loudspeaker barked out in English and Spanish. Juan walked up to the desk holding his wife’s hand and said “We’re here. What do we do next sir?” With that the powder blue uniformed helmet on the guard glistened in the sun and he said “Sign here for your tickets” again, in English and Spanish. Juan looked at Isabella after leaving the desk and said “Why is everything in two languages? You would think they would just speak one or provide a translator.”

Juan and Isabella eagerly waited for their numbers to be called. The tickets were nothing more than numbers, but to them these numbers meant freedom from tyranny and a chance to start over. When their numbers were called they boarded an old school bus that had all of the windows blacked out and what appeared to be an armed guard sitting up by the driver. After everyone was seated on the bus, the driver spoke up on the speaker and once again, spoke clearly in English in Spanish “This bus is designated for repatriates. You will be given further instructions when you disembark. The bus is blacked out to prevent any unauthorized viewing of our nation’s military bases which are on the way to the repatriation center. Thank you.” And the bus lurched forward out of the base and on to a small highway.

Juan, unable to keep his mouth shut, asked the people in front of them what they saw. They recounted an almost similar story except they found out why the people were being shot and the bodies burned. The elderly man looked Juan in the eyes with a scared, gaunt look and said “They were infected. They had that bird flu thing. The new government here and the UN have agreed to destroy all carriers no matter the age or sex of the infected. It’s getting bad my young friend. I just pray this bus is not on the way to those camps.” Juan looked at the old man with a smile and said “Rest easy old timer, the UN doctor told us our tests came back negative. I’m sure we would all be dead if that were the case now.” 

After what seemed like ten hours, the bus came to a stop. There were guards speaking back and forth in English and Spanish and what Juan swore was another language but could not identify it. As the driver instructed everyone to leave the bus in pairs or families when their names were called, he heard crying outside or so he thought. Isabella looked at him with that worried look and he softened his tone telling her “We’ll be fine sweetheart. Do not worry.”

As they left the old school bus, they saw the military compound they were in was crawling with activity. Then a young man with a UN and US flag patch on the shoulder of his uniform barked out at Juan “Okay you traitorous pieces of crap, welcome to the United Nations and United States Marine Corp Repatriation Processing Center. If you think escaping our shores and running will be that easy next time, think again. Women are to assemble in the line over here, men over there. Any disobedience and you will be shot on sight.”

Juan started to cry. He thought the new Cuba would save him from the conflict back home. After all these years of listening to his grandmother talk about how nice Cuba was in the 1940’s, he thought it would be a paradise after the fall of communism. 

Instead, Cuba signed on to the North American Commercial Union Treaty and agreed to repatriate refugees and terminate infected citizens per the U.N. Infectious Disease Treaty of 2013. No more wet foot, dry foot freedom agreements; no more freedom for those who did not leave before the war inside the Americas started.

Unlike the prior Prepetorial, where I painted a picture of “refugees” being returned to the U.S. for trying to escape, this one will approach a different subject from the same theme. There is a natural bias to think that people named “Juan” and “Isabella’ would indeed be illegals sneaking into the U.S. from Cuba. This time, as the financial media likes to say, it is different. I was inspired to write this particular prepetorial by Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour program for this weekend, the last before he heads of to his well earned monthly vacation. There was a moment, dropped in the flow of conversation with James Turk, about the new “exit tax” which has been enacted inside the United States. Just what is an “exit tax” you may ask?

Have a H.E.A.R.T

An exit tax is for any citizen or green card resident to pay a tax on their desire to repatriate to another nation. In other words a penalty for not wanting to stay on the team and be part of the “program” (or pogram in this case) with the Big Kahuna. While the tax may not seem exorbitant, when you read the devil in the details, it should wake you up. As America sinks further and further into a worldwide debt death spiral, what leader would want anyone with the ability to work, a marketable skill or resources to leave the plantation. Your job is to sit down, shut up and pay your tribute no matter how high the Patron Saint Obama and his party of drunken Caligulans raise your taxes.

The revisions to the exit tax were ushered into a Veteran’s bill which you can read by clicking on the link above. It is a shot across the bow of those who are capable of leaving these shores and trapping those who wish to work overseas as U.S. citizens earning very good wages then electing to stay there. This means you and I, the average citizen who may or may not inherit, earn or create enough wealth and elect to leave these shores for greener pastures in the future will not be allowed to take our money with us. The politicians will be demanding more and more revenue so look for taxes and fees to increase across the board. To escape their clutches you have to have the financial clout to rent one and pay for the privilege of bypassing the bureaucratic thievery they have in mind.

How Bad Will it Get?

There is the seven hundred trillion dollar question. I have been wondering that myself and after reading Mike Morgan’s excellent blog I am rethinking the possible final outcomes. A bankrupt nation takes desperate measures and I fear we may be on the precipice in the next four years of some unheard of and absurd course of actions which will leave true Constitutionalists searching their souls and praying that we can dig old Ronald Reagan up and jump start him again. The future for our nation is bleak.

The how bad question is one I often receive and every time it is asked I end up revising the determination downwards to a new low, a further deterioration, and a prayer we do not ride around on dune buggies like the Mad Max movies envisioned. The problem is that this period of uncertainty has no real political, moral, or symbolic leader that appears to have the “magic” to coalesce a tired, disgusted and  frustrated nation behind them. The new leadership that does emerge will not want any capital flight and the new exit tax legislation is the first building block of preventing this from happening. The next layer of restrictions will be placed on exporting assets overseas deemed of “value” by the authorities. This means that selling your precious metals or commodities to overseas buyers could create a massive tax liability as the protectionist bent of our new modern progressives is a well established fact. It also means that labor will be deemed the next commodity of value. And what does that mean?

Is there a Doctor Willing to Stay in the House?

Imagine a nation where doctors, engineers, specialists and military personnel are not allowed to leave their nation of origin and forced to work at home only because of shortages in their fields due to restrictive taxation and labor laws. It is not going to be hard to imagine inside the U.S. in the next ten years. We are already facing issues with medical staffing in rural America. Imagine what would happen if income is “assigned” based on where you live and what profession you are engaged in. I know that if I were a doctor the airport would not be in my view fast enough. And that is something that our new progressive socialist movement is fearing and with great justification. If I were a financial specialist or software engineer and I could earn four times as much in Hong Kong or Singapore than I could in say Sioux Falls, SD would I stay in town? Nope.

That is the next shoe to drop in our lifetimes. There will be no desire to keep people out of our nation as the elderly population will  not produce enough revenue to keep the Ponzi scheme afloat. This leaves only one option for our future (D) or (R) socialist tax planners. And I look for the new restrictions to be enacted the minute capital flight is detected and blocked or obstructed by the authorities within the next five to ten years.

Got Frequent Flier Miles?

Better think about using them……

Ignore the Noise

By John Galt

July 30, 2008

Here we go again. The talking bubblevisionistas are all proclaiming the end of the oil, gold, commodity and anything else that doesn’t sell commercials bull markets.

Don’t believe the white noise they are broadcasting.

This morning oil is down about 75 cents and gold another 12 bucks or so. Big deal. Every year we see massive fluctuations in both commodities but if you look at the food complex there is no 10-20% drop across the board. That is your hint that the real markets are calling for a problem this fall. If you out into the distant futures and options play the pattern is still intact on gold and worse, the grains complex. Oil was due a 20% correction as it went parabolic and was way ahead of itself. The fact that Chinese demand has dropped off due to massive civilian driving restrictions to “clear the air” probably did not hurt either.

So when does the bull return? Probably with the first hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. From a historic perspective, look for a return to skyrocketing precious metals prices in late September or early October as the seasonality returns. Today and tomorrow I’m just looking for the usual window dressing and once we get to Friday and our usual 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. FDIC watch, we will start to get a better picture of what August will look like. The artificial constrictions being put on the markets by regulators and stresses being introduced into the credit system by attempting to keep AAA paper on their books when it is really CCC- will eventually catch up to the rest of the banksters and that is when all hell breaks loose.

For those that think the housing crisis is actually getting better, I simply advise you drink a shot of bourbon every time the NAR calls for a bottom or says “the end of the decline is near” or some other such nonsense. The truth in the story was published last night in the Financial Times with this story:

Mortgage approvals hit record low

That is in the U.K.

I can almost guarantee you that the same headline should appear in the U.S. also. The funny business is over and only the cream of the crop will be getting mortgages now.

And the crop report for qualified buyers is pretty dim at this moment…..

Now that the Homeowner has been Bailed out, Time for the C.R.A.P. to Bail Out the Rest

July 27, 2008

By John Galt

That’s right, I’m totally satisfied that by putting into law a new series of power grabs that the Federal Reserve and Treasury have the RMBS situation totally under control. Well, maybe not, but if you drink enough vodka, whiskey or Prestone, you might believe that also. With the residential side now stabilized and the shareholders of Freddie’s Fannie about to get it in the you know what (Sometimes it pays to hold bonds boys and girls), it is now time to focus on the 800 lb. gorilla sitting at the dinner table which enjoys getting those annoying little black hairs on your food. No, that’s not your mother-in-law, that’s the commercial real estate crisis that does not exist according to Sub Prime Vision, but in all actuality is on hold waiting to see if they can convince the Fed and the government to bail them out before 4000 banks fail.

I hereby propose the Commercial Realty Assistance Program or “CRAP” to keep these banks from crashing and burning. The CRAP could be used to boost bank balance sheets, prevent Pakistanis from conducting mass reverse migrations from convenience stores back home and help condominium projects unfinished in Florida, California and Las Vegas become converted bird sanctuaries with a resident environmentalist commie wacko living on every floor. The CRAP could also be spread over many congressional districts by politicians who fear these regional bank failures and desire to insure stability where non-citizens and citizens alike can borrow fiat taxpayer backed dollars to insure more projects could be completed. I know that I’m dying to see the Turbostrip finished up the street from me where the turbo-wash cleans my car while the hair on my back is stripped off by waxers who follow the Karate Kid mantra of “wax on, wax offf” to the tunes of various musicals paid for also by taxpayers. Lord knows we need that chain to succeed.

So if you think the housing bailout was bad, if you think it has no purpose, fear not. CRAP is coming your way soon and it may not be called “CRAP” it might assume another name. Due to an attempt to show some decorum and taste, I shall refrain from spelling that one out for you. But the socialist housing intern training program does show a lot of hope.

How Now, Dollar Dead Sacred Cow?

By John Galt

July 24, 2008

Ah thank you oh former Bear Stearns cheerleader Christopher Cox who occasionally fills in as the “ENFORCER” at the Securities and Exchange Commission  when he is not on Bubblevision promoting a particular stock which needs a bailout. It is the special order issued from up on high and the absurd way in which the media has been promoting it that inspired the “Sacred Cow” which can not be gored per the Grand Pooh-Bahs up on high. The funny thing is that as I listen to the various financial call in shows the intended impact of the order has already happened. The phrase “naked” was left off from the order against “naked shorting” and that means that the average schmuck thinks “oh my I don’t want to go to prison like Ken Lay did, I had best get out of all my short positions and just sit on the sidelines or do what Cramer says.” Of course that is a bit of an exaggeration as Ken Lay never did any prison time for his SEC approved approach to creative financing and investing (gee, any of the names on the cow seem similar)  but the average individual investor is calling up the various shows down here in Florida terrified of the consequences of shorting stocks. Thus the government and financial industry inspired rally to save the banksters after the smooth transition the FDIC executed at Indymac just a little over a week ago.

So today, the US House of Representatives struck a deal so they could all go home and fleece, er, campaign for re-election by agreeing to provide an Unconstitutional expansion of powers for the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Oh and it also bails out 400,000 horrid mortgages the banksters are stuck with but the law of unintended consequences from overdosing on stupid pilss will be impacting the banksters beyond the last seventeen months or so of “oh crap” the executives who dabbled in this mess utter every morning when they walk into the office. Unfortunately for the Zippy the Pinhead crew who crafted this fine piece of legislation to insure the flow of political contributions continues uninterrupted, there will be an unintended side effect from this “bailout” of the terminally stupid.

There is a phrase that sends shudders up and down the spine of the banksters and our government dopes which has been dismissed as “not happening” even though it is happening every day. The homeowner who is upside down, the homeowner who owes considerably a lot more than the home is worth, the homeowner who did not belong in the home they own as the ARM resets, and the investor who purchased homes based on a DVD or some seminar shyster will probably want to follow Jim Cramer’s advice and walk away from the home. If the politicians want to commit another act of ultimate futility, who am I to stop them? By creating this new program, people who are in owner occupied homes with negative equity and actually read the details of this type of program will simply stop paying on their homes and wait until the new law takes effect so they can get a new mortgage based on a realistic valuation for their property. If I was drunk enough to buy a $200,000 home and get it at what used to be called “the only one of its kind at the bargain price of $425,000″ (I loved those ads and the realtors that used to promote them in their slutwear) then hell yes, let me go into default so my neighbors can bail me out. Of course they will really hate me because now their homes will get a de facto valuation assigned to them because of this program. I am sure my neighbors would appreciate a 40% plus haircut in their home values and the government will not mind one bit as long as the Graft Express never gets derailed. The consequences of this new bailout will trigger this problem and more.

Which will probably trigger another round of foreclosure activity.

Which will probably trigger more banking problems.

Which will probably trigger more Bubblevision wrist slashing round tables.

You can still stop this. Call your Senators NOW! This morning! Before it is too late! Here is a link to call your Senator to tell them to kill this legislation now before President Bush can push us into the EU Socialist model!

On to more news, fun and the rest of the story…..

Wow! What a Rally! 

I elected to post this home made chart just to illustrate the start of the mess from February 2007 to the market close today. If you notice, we are not exactly lighting the world on fire and the bailout moves by all parties involved have stabilized the market each time a major corrective move is initiated to flush the system as to how bad it really is. Well how bad is it? Let us analyze a little if ever referenced portion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release from June 2008. I have edited the table to get to the key lines at the bottom of the CPI-U.

So based on the “purchasing power” of the consumer dollar in 1982-1984 dollars the DJIA would look something like this:

Hmmm, same pattern as 2008 but the numbers are not nearly as pretty. In fact, it does reflect that our dollar is worth less than half as much as it was some 25 years or so ago. Not a positive sign if you ask me, but then again, what do I know? I’m just a blogger with a chip on my shoulder because the government is hell bent on letting the Federal Reserve and financial community turn us into a third world Banana Republic with a currency that works as a rolling paper or toilet paper. I wrote about this in the op-ed “Weimarica” believe it or not one year ago today on July 24, 2007. If you think it is not that bad, using the same BLS data, let’s see what the DJIA is worth in 1967 dollars:

Once again, same pattern but boy do those numbers speak volumes. We have essentially destroyed the value of our dollar by about 85% and at the same time expanded our ability to commit to the destruction of our monetary system by failing to rein in the political and financial elites to a level which actual endangers the viability of our economy and the nation as a whole.

But few people care. The crash will happen, today, tomorrow, a year from now, who knows. But the bond market is speaking loud and clear. The news today highlighted the absurdity of the bailout package the House and Senate are ramming through with this blip off of Bloomberg:

 Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

While that may not seem like a big deal because what’s a measly five billion bucks when we were talking FIVE FREAKING TRILLION last week, but it is indicative as to the severity of the problem that the interference in our free markets is not being allowed to correct.

At some point, barring the introduction of a fiscal and banking monetization of  our debt, the stock market, dollar and real estate industries will correct to realistic levels and valuations commensurate with the risk they provide the markets. Unfortunately our nation does not have the will power nor the stomach or political class willing to withstand such a correction so logically speaking they will hyperinflate. They have to. Or they will watch their derivatives accelerate downward to zero. Still think there is a rally? Check out the ABX then; here is the ABX-HE-AAA-07-A chart and please, show me the huge rally:

Good thing the underlying AAA securities were vetted and given those ratings by the rating agencies (snicker) and probably have bond insurance from a company with an A2 rating (double snicker). You can check out all of the Markit products here and while that is not a total representation as to what is going in within the securitized debt markets, it should wake you up to the fact that as Mike Morgan wrote today in his excellent article:

The Back Half of the 500 Year Hurricane - Gets Worse

It is your must reading assignment as he is pointing out the obvious: Nothing has changed.

The powers that be can collapse the commodity markets (just remember who owns the ICE) and use their hedge funds to stabilize the US Treasury markets, but in the end the market always wins. And when the market finishes the job it started last February, to correct and wring out excesses, our nation and the people who reside here will see a change of historic proportions. As we have a lazy electorate, an inept group of leaders in Washington, and a complicit financial press the answer to the question is simple and hyperinflation will begin. The underlying economic statistics, no matter how much lipstick is applied, will only get worse and he end result will bring us back where we started about seventy-five years ago.

Consider this the time where the job FDR started gets finished. I hope you have prepared accordingly.

Got Gold?

Got Food?

Got a passport to get the hell out of here?

Watch the Real Money Today

July 23, 2008

By John Galt

Just a quick note for the day; the 10 year bond is moving up in yield again, now around 4.14%. These moves are indicative of trouble ahead and the reports that the CONgress has reached an agreement on the “housing bailout” means that they are going to use their fiscal printing powers to light the inflationary fuse even if Benron won’t finish the job. 4.25% should not be hard to reach and I look for a breakout over 4.5% at this pace. More later…..

Pollax Tuesday

July 22, 2008

By John Galt

Today is the day we find out just how ugly it could get. With WB, STI and WM reporting today we will either flush the system or worse (gasp) get some honesty out of it. I use the word “pollax” because it is my word of the day and based on the reports after the bell last night, the market is going to get whacked pretty hard this morning. It is a good thing the regulators (cough, cough, gasp, snicker) are cracking down on naked shorts now so we don’t have to worry about “rumors” (that’s for  you Charlie G.) may have undo influence on the markets.

After the close tonight and the reports are all in, I will have a lot more to say on this paricular thread. In the mean time just ask those stocks today if they would like a blindfold and a cigarrette. Because as a bear market should, despite the government interference, stocks and sectors are being taken out and shot one at a time. Without mercy. And just like every bear market in the past. Let’s hope the idiots like Cox, Paulson,  and our Senate butt out so the effiicency of our markets function as it should instead of prolonging and dramatically worsening the downturn.

*****************************

7/22/08 1900 EDT Update (as promised)

Aw gee, John, the market was not really as bad as you said it was. Gee willikers everything was up, up, up and Cramerica has parted the Mississippi River and found Catfish Souffle so he can start a new company and rally the world as oil squirts out of his butt.

Uh, no. Something got pollaxed (God I love that word) today. Gold? Yes, but still in it’s consolidation trading range. Oil? Yup, bushwhacked but a 20% correction still leaves us above $100 per bbl; the last price Bubblevision told us meant the end of civilization as we know it. Silver? Yeah, sure, it’s all the way back to the $17 range. Sold to me.

So what got whacked? Here is my POLLAX CHART OF THE DAY (Hit the music) :

Ooops. That might be important. We’ve kissed 4.10% again, the Mendoza line of death for Benron, Hanky-Panky and the Congressional Socialist wannabes. After the action since the bear market rally began, I fear we will see the proverbial line where the Black Hole gravitional influence begins:

4.25%

Just why is this, you may ask or you may not, so danged important? Let’s review quickly the problem with the banksters, the economy and the lower life forms who reside in D.C. The housing crisis is about thirty percent over. That’s right, as someone who deals with this issue daily it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that a nation with a negative savings rate is not about to meet the requirements of 20% down for mortgages on homes which are still stuck with a median national price of $206,700 (as of May 2008 per the Ministry of Propaganda) and real inflation running well above 11% (thank you www.shadowstats.com). You see, when a family sees gasoline, heating oil, utilities, medical insurance, property insurance, property taxes, food, clothing and Fluffy the wonder poodle’s medication all going up in price while real net wages (not income, please pay attention to real money, not the government distorted figures; add in my salary and Steve Jobs and that distorts the numbers) are declining and you are going to have a hard time finding families, singles or people living under bridges saving up enough extra cash or aluminum cans to finance a down payment, much less the annoyance of having a realtor convince you that a home is an “investment” that you can make a profit on in less than a decade. Hopefully the realtor (he or she) is not wearing that horrid twelve your old perfume you used to smell on the back of your grandmother’s toilet.

Once the ten year bond progresses back to levels that will create not just issues for the mortgage markets, but for the entire bailout system concocted by Benron and the Boys, the penalty phase begins anew. Despite the popular belief that the US Dollar has “bottomed” (just like Bubblevision Baldy’s finanicals have. Again. Today. For the 6th time since March) it is in the same decisive consolidation phase that the metals and many other commodities have been. Despite this bear market rally in equities there has been little if anything accomplished to reach the 200 DMA which is not poised to move sharply below the 74 mark and on to the 72 level, the Mendoza line for America.

Since we keep failing to reach the 200 DMA, watch out gang. Look at all of the history since April of 2007 where the first rally to the 200 DMA failed. Then again in the Fall when the fan started to smell funky. Then again in January of 2008. Etc. Each time it triggered a new, sharper decline.

This current consolidation will also.

The choices for stupidity and Benron are pretty simple: Pour more money on to the fire or watch bank after bank, stock after stock, company after company and consumer after consumer go belly up. Oh and since it is an election year, look for one more huge fiscal stimulus package to be dumped on America all in the name of saving “Santa” and making sure the chuldren have plenty of ChiCom lead laden toys to eat this Christmas so they can get autism or grow a third eye in their foreheads so they can get prescribed and suck down government funded prescriptions to keep the pharmaceutical industry contributing to their campaigns.

Ain’t being a debtor nation just great? Welcome to the Banana Republic of the United States, just like I broadcast about every Friday night.

So as of this point, let’s review the ongoing beating we are all taking:

1. There will be no housing bailout by the “investors” as the banksters are demanding some absurd down payments. I mean how dare they return to the “traditional” role of forcing the buyer to have a vested interest in the properties just like the “good old days” most of us grew up with.

2. The housing price decline will not meet the median income of the average American family because the investors who own the paper will not let the banksters nor anyone else mark the prices to market. If the original mortgage was written for $350,000 on Mr. and Mrs. Joe Blow’s recently foreclosed home, the banks do not want to take the hit to their assets or capital reserves by marking the price down to the current asking price in the various markets of $250,000. Add in the owners of the paper be they JPM, GS, or Wi-Wi Wi in Beijing demanding to be made whole again on their MBS and the insurance holders of that bond laughing and crying while playing drinking games, and you see we are in a gridlock of death financially.

3. The dollar has found a new resistance level and will have one heck of a hard time getting above the 73 to 74 range any time again in our lifetime unless there is a move to raise interest rates to a level unseen since 1981 and the willingness to reign in the Congressional Cominetern’s desire to finance pet projects and their retirements on our backs. Since we know that will not happen, look for option “B” where the dollar proceeds, hopefully orderly, down to the 62ish range to freak out the Kudlowites of the world.

4. Market interference will continue at the regulatory level where eventually even commenting on the individual stocks, bonds or derivative creations could result in civil or criminal penalties as the First Amendment is reserved only for those who have a 1% controlling interest in Goldman Sachs or a membership as a shareholder in the Federal Reserve.

5. Stocks are still in a bear market. We shall see rallies, we shall see declines. But the bottom line is until we test the 10,000-10,680 range, we are not anywhere near an intermediate bottom much less a long term one. If you want to see a bottom, well, here:

Now that I’ve had my obligatory three cheap shots at the shyster and his network, let us all speculate or try to determine what will meet the firing squad next.

Banking on Trouble

Despite the desire of every man, woman and child to believe that Indymac was it and we’ll never see another one in our lifetime, I present to you a chart. I know, charts suck and do not explain everything but this one does.

That is the BIX or S&P Banking Index for about the last five years. If you would like to really get depressed, here is the 3 year weekly candlestick chart:

Notice a trend here? I’ve added the Bollinger Bands (something I studied and have followed for years) just to illustrate how bad this trend is. The bottom band has blown way out and is approaching the 150 level. The 50 DMA has crossed the upper band and appears poised to accelerate to the downside. Why do charts tell us we have a problem coming either tomorrow, September or after the election?

Money is leaving our shores. Why would anyone overseas invest in a net asset which is declining in value? Why would anyone who has more functioning brain cells than Bove even fantasize about business in the U.S. growing and more investment being put into the system the banksters control? There is nothing, absolutely NOTHING, that the government or private industry can do to increase credit growth and expansion without the consumer participating. The new rules on giving credit to consumers be it a credit card, loan for a toaster oven, car or home are so restrictive as the banks are so desperate to raise cash that asking 5% of the population to bail out 95% is beyond absurd, it’s a pathetic excuse as a joke. The politicians will not relent. The bankers are terrified thanks to the problems they know about but refuse to fully disclose publically. And the government is more concerned with expanding the power over the free markets that their very actions will destroy the allegedly free markets we have now.

Just because short sellers are scared to cross the SEC and CONgress with the rules, people with common sense are repeatedly selling their long term holdings in the banks and getting the heck out with each rally. The long feared capital flight has begun and the morons in the District of Columbia are looking under rocks for speculators to blame for the problem. The biggest speculator of them all will never be held to blame and that is why the Federal Reserve’s actions will eventually trigger the final collapse of the banking system they have designed. They will not deflate because it is not only politically impossible in this nation to allow corrective pricing to occur, the investors who hold our paper, be it agency or Treasury have the ability to impose thier own rules restricting the ability of our government and Central Banker to take any action which harms their “investments” which we sold to them with a straight face.

Thus why I shall continue to stress safety for my household. Why I shall continue to be jealous that I do not have the grapefruits to gamble as a day trader (ah the 90’s) and make some big money in the coming calamity, especially if that money is denominated in Swiss Francs.  The rotation should start to impact the commodity stocks full force for the next 4-6 weeks in my opinion. We may rally back up to 12,160 on the Dow but that should just about do it as the weightings of the banks and oil stocks will eventually trip it up again.

Barring Hanna arriving early, the end of August should trigger the next major down leg in the equities and the final roll over past the 4.25% level and the realization of the real winter crisis will begin.

Better hope that wench (yes, it rhymes with that sort of) arrives late.

If Hanna shows up early in August, it is over. And that means a lot of people will realize what frostbite and starvation are really all about.

Time for a Sunset

Sanibel Island 2007

St. John, USVI 2007

That is the end of my mellow side. Back to work. Check back tonight or in the morning for more as the world is about to change again……and not for the better.

Your Vote In November Does Not Matter

By John Galt

July 17, 2008

Meet the electorate of the Presidential Election of 2008. Between Tweedledee-dee and Tweedleduh the world is prepared to vote on who will be our next President.

That’s right gang, it is not our choice.

It is not the choice of some far flung Indian tribe in the Southwest U.S. It is not the voice or protests of the envirocommies. It is not the selections made by the minorities of this nation. It has nothing to do with the the proverbial AWM (angry white male) or ERA chickies. This is all about the people who hold us by the proverbial short hairs, the creditors of the United States.

Now you ask, who of this group above will be the most active participants in our election? Let us take a moment to review the big players, all three of whom will decide unilaterally or in some cases jointly to shift our nation in one direction or the other. I introduce to you:

The United States Electoral College of 2008-2009
In this corner:

Wen Jiabao, Chinese Premier who is in control of a Communist party that just happens to hold, according to some estimates, $1,000,000,000,000.00 plus (yes, that’s one trillion) of our toxic MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities). Add in another $20 billion in holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds controlled by the Bank of China, which the Communist party holds a controlling interest and you can see where if Wen says dance, Ben and Hank do the Shuffle, the Alligator or the Polka. The Chinese have wisely used their U.S. dollar reserves to out bid our own companies on the spot energy and metals markets acquiring a strategic reserve position that our nation could only envy and has not achieved since World War II. If you doubt the ability of American politicians to dance to the Chinese music I simply ask that you do a search for “Loral” and MIRV.

In this corner:

Good old Puty-Put. Yes, the one, the only Vladimir Putin, the black hand in control of Russia which is now a free (cough-cough), independent (cough-cough), and democratic (cough-choke) Republic  which is the example that all capitalist societies wish to achieve. Well, maybe not, but it is one that some of our Sorosian types have wet dreams of. The nightmare society being constructed in Russia is something that we do not have to fear with a resurgence of their secret police, a propagandist press, and desire to re-centralize every aspect of society under government control. Wait a sec; maybe we should be concerned or just damned scared. The fallacy of our “friendship” with this government is fading quickly with the friendly diplomatic warnings about obliterating any miltiary facilities which have ABM capacity in Eastern Europe but hey, I’m an optimist and think they will be our buddies after we are a smoking hole in the ground or bankrupt IMF basket case. Their controlling interest? Puty is no stupid soul, and instead of following the Reagan model to the letter, he figured out that if you control another nation’s currency reserves to some degree and some of their most strategic bond issues you may have the attention of that government; especially when you set the short hairs on fire. Take for example this story from the International Herald Tribune on July 14, 2008:

Russian Finance Ministry says not concerned over investments in U.S. mortgage debt’

From the article:

The Russian government has sought to deflect fears over risks to its $100 billion holding in U.S. agency debt, a proportion of which is held in embattled mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

“Unlike the share price for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, their debt remains stable. This is because the U.S. government has publicly stated its readiness to provide financial support to these companies,” the Finance Ministry said in a statement during the weekend.

That’s good news that they have a lot of faith in the stability of our debt because many of us who live here and Indymac depositors are not so keen at this time. The bad news is that those baby blue eyes Bush looked into are staring at something other than our best interests. And payback for collapsing their empire by putting us into third world status and achieving de facto control of Europe has long been a goal of the old KGB and the new political elite of Russia.

In this corner:

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia presents King Abdullah, ruler of the holy land, leader of God’s people and gas station attendant to America.

To say they have their fair share of control over our society is one thing. To say they do not is a denial of reality. Does anyone honestly think that the U.S. would waste the time of our Secretary of State prancing around with a bunch of thugs in the West Bank like a Chihuahua in heat unless someone threatened to force us into a prolonged economic downturn by cutting our gas supply off?

And if anyone is under any misconception about the control that they have, I remind you of the pie chart above. When you see “oil exporters” as a label on any graph, subtract the 0.92% from it and you have the House of Saud. They have no desire to do anything but spread the word of the Religion of Peace via their Wahhabi export program and if you don’t like it, spank your children and have them kneel to the east five times daily in penance. Their control is not just of a critical natural resource but our Treasury and agency paper is frightening. The politics attached to that escape most souls but I’m just a small time commentator with a once a week radio program that is trying to warn everyone that marriage to tyranny is equal to an acquiescence to slavery. Add in even the weekly veiled threat to shift the peg of their currency from the dollar to the Euro or some other regional currency construct and you get the idea that they have every intention of keeping the current administration on a short leash. Here boy, come on Bennie, roll over, keep that tail down, good boy….

And the Electoral College Says…..

That is the big unknown. The strength or weakness of the American economy is only relevant to these nations as far as our ability to repay any debts we owe. As long as we can service the debt and service their international political desires they could care less if Americans are eating Friskies Pacific Salmon Delight or McDonald’s. They have had historical and long term goals to eliminate the influence of the United States and its allies from the political scene and thanks to the ineptness of twenty plus years of greed, avarice, corruption and apathy they are close to achieving their final goal. The American public will walk into the voting booth this November and vote for the person who will promise them the most.

McCain is saddled with eight years of meandering and policies of convenience instead of conviction leaving an uncertain determination to the war on terror, an irrelevant system of finance to manage the nation’s affairs and the legacy of a party that will be remembered for squandering a chance to achieve a stable world of perpetual freedom and opportunity.

Obama is saddled with the desire to become the new FDR yet the lack of experience to outline a long term strategic set of goals which will guarantee his place at the table.

Thus the desire to please everyone might lead to Obama selecting a team of players which are tied to the very interests that the new Electoral College has been influencing all along. The desire to introduce a kinder more gentle socialism into America might very well lead to the hard core Chinese model which modern day oligarchs and corporatists will embrace and force him into an uncomfortable alliance with the elites of old and the Comintern world structure he claims to forsake.

If I were a betting man, the lack of conviction, policy, instability and history leads me to believe that one candidate might eliminate himself within two weeks of the election.

If McCain fails to do this by then, those members of the “new” Electoral College might well liquidate a fair portion of their holdings to bring our system to its knees and create the Obama dynasty and and the proverbial new world order of internationalism which abandons the America ideal we all knew.

Mark this author’s words; if the Dow Jones Industrial Average is below 10,000 on November 4, 2008  the Republican nominee and a substantial portion of his party’s members will find themselves unemployed the next day. Countless American citizens will find themselves unemployed and begging for the government to save them shortly thereafter.