05.02.08
Optimistic Perspectives
Today’s headlines about the renewed optimism on Wall Street brought back some memories….
From the AP today (May 1, 2008)….
Stocks rise as dollar advances on optimism about US economy
NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street has enjoyed a big rally, with investors sending the Dow Jones industrials up nearly 190 points in response to a stronger dollar and falling energy prices.
————————–
And from yesteryear….
Editor Marcus A. Rose of The Business Week: “Business will be good in 1930 for the lean, hard firms. It will not be good for the fat, soft outfits.”
————————–
And back to today’s NY Times….
Optimism Begins to Ease Onto Wall St.
Main Street may be struggling, but Wall Street is on a bit of a roll.
Despite a drumbeat of bad economic news, the stock market is up — almost 11 percent in the last few weeks. Junk bonds, those risky corporate I.O.U.’s, are rallying. The value of financial shares, bank loans, tricky credit derivatives — up, up, up.
Many on Wall Street, the epicenter of the credit mess, seem to think that the worst is over. For the first time in months, analysts and executives sound upbeat again. Many of them see a broad, sustained recovery in both the economy and the financial markets coming in the second half of this year, a prediction some market strategists call hopeful at best.
For now, policy makers are echoing the mood on Wall Street. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Thursday that “we are closer to the end of this problem than we are to the beginning.”
A report from the Bank of England, meantime, concluded that mortgage securities, which have been at the heart of the financial troubles, probably have fallen too far. The central bank said prices of such securities should “improve gradually in the coming months.”
——————————
And from yesteryear again…..
Editor Ralph C. Busby of India Rubber & Tire Review: “Distributors everywhere in looking to 1930 have legitimate reason to be conservatively optimistic.”
——————————-
And back to the present from Michigan Live today…
Survey reveals optimism among Midwestern executives
by Carol Marshall | Oakland Business Review
Thursday May 01, 2008, 3:00 PM
The state economy could stabilize and begin producing jobs in the next two years, but that’s only if the state legislature addresses the newly enacted Michigan Business Tax and if domestic automotive manufacturers stay on the course to sustainability.
That’s the message from a panel of local Plante & Moran experts when the accounting firm released the results of its survey on middle market companies in the Midwest.
What the survey revealed is a high amount of optimism among those who responded to the survey - 344 respondents in all, with 145 located in Michigan. Half were CEOs, 25 percent are CFOs, and the rest are a mix of COOs, vice presidents and directors and company owners.
With 67 percent reporting optimism, that’s a gain from two years ago, when 56 percent reported they were optimistic or very optimistic, said Susan Telang, Plante & Moran partner.
————————
And one more from 1930……
Editor A. C. Saunders of Furniture Manufacturer: “. . . the business, valley will not be deep and will be crossed during the first quarter of 1930.”
————————
OH what the heck, let’s pick on the real estate fans and builders who know no downturns…from Globe St.com today…..
Last updated: May 1, 2008 12:50pm
Land: Now’s the Time to Go Back to Market
By Mark Cooney
Land has normally been the key to gauging whether the current economy is still in a trough or taking an upward climb toward normalcy. Well, if the past two months are an indication, land is back in play and the months ahead should bode well for all other commercial sectors.
We are finding a significant increase in owners wanting to list their acreage. More flexibility regarding valuations and lower interest rates are making it easier for additional players to obtain financing for new acquisitions.
There remains a large number of single-family lots and homes yet to be absorbed surrounding Tampa Bay. However, the entitlement process for some tracts takes months, if not years, and now is the time for owners to put their acreage back in play.
————————
And back to the future, 1930…..
Editor Peter A. Stone of American Contractor: “During the year 1930 the volume of building construction work materializing will be greater than in 1929. . . .”
And my favorite quote from the TIME magazine article, Dole or Revolution on Monday, April 14, 1930…..
Meanwhile Secretary of Labor James John Davis, than whom none has been more officially cheery in the present labor crisis, explained himself in the April issue of the Financial Diary: “I’m no believer in empty optimism. At the same time one doesn’t improve the condition of a sick man by constantly telling him how ill he is. On the contrary we do our best to fill him with courage and confidence. . . . Business is staging a record recovery.”
——————————-
Need I say more? It’s beginning to sound like an echo in here. A somewhat historical echo……stand by as the next shoes hit this fall.
