29

06/09

Obamarket Update #107 for June 29, 2009: Formula for Disaster

20:58 by Administrator. Filed under: Whatever


Filed under: Old Posts — John Galt @ 8:58 pm

by John Galt

June 29, 2009

“This market continues to be propped up by government intervention and manipulation…..”

Larry Levin, Secretsoftraders.com on CNBC (Video Here)

Let me get this straight; until Mr. Levin spoke today, drawing the ire of Steve Liesman in the process who also participated in that segment, few people wanted to even consider or accept the fact that the government has been active in all aspects of America’s capital markets for years now but once it becomes “obvious” to all then people slap themselves in the forehead and go “wow, I could never have imagined this happening here.” Folks, the reality is not just the PPT or plunger team, but that America’s political elites along with the Fed now have controlling interests in so many trading desks that the “market” is nothing more than a grand video game to most of this crowd. The fact that they have been able to decimate so many retiree’s nest eggs and force a greater dependency on the government either indicates a grand plan to create a new generation of elderly welfare addicts or just blithering incompetence. I’ll let you draw your own conclusion.

This is what you could easily call a week of vacation but a surprise revision to last month’s unemployment numbers, which I am counting on, and a big number this month could trigger a shock to the system right before the second quarter earnings reports start to roll out. The Russell 2000 and the US Dollar were not what I would call reassuring aspects of the market and the Dow Transports basically served the role of spoiler to today’s lightly traded rally. What we could see after this holiday week with more bad news on the way and perhaps indications that the idiots in the Senate will pass the Cap and Trade fiasco along with some bad earnings reports and the bear market rally could start that long slow painful rollover into a bear market rout. Who knows at this point in time, but one thing for sure: With the government actively interjecting into almost every financial market inside of our borders it is only a matter of time before the foreign investors finish the process of extracting themselves from our nightmare.

That’s when life in the U.S. of A. will get very and disturbingly interesting.

The bananas poured themselves a cold one after the Turbo Timmy PPT bought a moral victory today to keep the country focused on more important issues like the celebrity death of the day or some other such nonsense. The DJIA was up over 90 points but on only 1.063 billion shares on the NYSE and nothing really special beyond that.

The UTT-BUGLY Chart of the Day is actually a “bullish” chart but it is UTTBUGLY because of its implications for the dollar in the future and the fact that there is a growing market for shorting our currency and betting on a major decline. The UUP and UDN are two good extreme ETFs to watch in addition to the dollar index for some idea as to where people are betting on the future of our beloved and ever more worthless buck.

Until tomorrow.

-John

27

06/09

The Goebbelsnet

18:30 by Administrator. Filed under: 2009,ARCHIVES OLD BLOG

by John Galt

June 27, 2009

The death of an Iranian protester. Outside of the members of that protest, the Iranian exiles worldwide, and a few “human rights” socialists, does anyone really care?

No.

The gift we have now and have taken for granted was seen as a “news source” and voice of freedom for exactly one week’s worth of a news cycle after the Iranian election. The mullahs and their fascistic power hungry minions thought they had the off switch to the internet under control but alas, there were gaps. Sadly for the dead protester above, peace in that region and America, they found their holes and have patched them.

Why do I say “sadly for America” you might ask? Simply put we have no influence in that region despite the popular protestations of hypocritical conservatives and allegedly concerned human rights liberals. As I outlined in another commentary here last week we could have changed the story but instead we decided to just depend on the citizens of Iran to take care of things on their own. However this editorial is not about rehashing the failures of thirty years of U.S. foreign policy in the region it is about information control and flow. It is also about this editorial, as every word you read now is subject to the control, review, editing and oversight of a computer, an agent or even a disgruntled local politician looking to make a splash.

Welcome my friends to the Goebbelsnet.

The internet is a fantastic tool. I remember using the original DARPANet (what we called it in college aka ARPANet) and all of us were absolutely fascinated as sophomores trading small bits of data and documents via dedicated lines with other students at UCLA. Ah, those were the days as we received information, printed it up on green bar and then attempting to explain it to family and friends. Fast forward to the early 1990’s and the Bulletin Board craze which lead to America Online and the World Wide Web. Thankfully American capitalism got its hands on the internet first during this period and while 2400 bps sounds slow now back in the mid-1990’s that was smoking when using the original Netscape!

As our now beloved “web” evolved the dangers of free speech became apparent not just to our government but to nations worldwide. Message boards, email, Twitter, Facebook, you name it all appeared and along with cell phone interfaces and once again private enterprise had leaped ahead of the concept of ‘control’ which makes governments and politicians nervous everywhere in the world. As information flowed faster, fiction and fact becomes distorted and as long as the politicians have total control, that is acceptable. If they need to introduce ‘doubt’ into a citizenry it is as easy as having an apparatus such as a cabinet level department leak information to a media outlet and presto, bango, a story appears that creates doubt or worry in the sheeple or masses. If a bureaucrat is instructed to ‘flush out’ troublemakers, they use their agents to mix with the crowd, introduce a fictitious story with supporting evidence on the web and some idiot will make a flagrantly felonious statement and “BOOM” the problem is picked up, sent to jail and does not collect $200.

Thus why Iran is a lesson for Americans. Our dependency on information flow for everything from business transactions to paying our bills at home, from emailing Mom to emailing an idiot politician, and from buying movie tickets to downloading music is all at the mercy now of one three letter word:

OFF

Don’t believe me? Go to an Iranian news site for anyone opposed to the mullahs, let me know how that error message works out for you; and I do mean an Iranian site, not an opposition site here in the West. You see after their original blunder, the mullahs figured out that their camels could not turn off the internet. So they sent out their technical experts and shut it down. No information in, no information out. No propaganda in, no pleas for help out. The protesters feel exactly like those in 1956 Budapest, 1968 Prague and 1970’s Cambodia; abandoned by the West. Right or wrong, that is just how they probably should feel, yet what happens when it hits our nation? What happens when ‘the BIG emergency’ hits the United States?

The American people are under this false impression that there is no “OFF” switch for our internet, our phone system, our radio broadcasters, or our television broadcasting system. Ah ye of little understanding, comprehension or awareness. There are systems in place started since the 9-11 attacks for FEMA and other agencies to intervene and take over every aspect of communications for the allegedly ‘free’ citizen. The problem is we have never been tested so how would we know what it was like? Joseph Goebbels would know and he understood that during his time period, that was critical to controlling the masses.

By now you’re wondering how a dead Iranian protester, a map of shortwave radio density by region/nation, and Joseph Goebbels might tie together with how America is now totally susceptible to an information blackout and why you had best prepare to either accept the ‘facts’ as presented by the mainstream media or had best open your mind up immediately to hearing what other nations and broadcasters have to offer.

Let’s take it from the Iranian situation and track backwards for a bit of discovery. First and foremost, how many Iranian internet non-governmental broadcasters with the opposition point of view can be heard now? Uh, yeah, zero. If you were in the region, how many mediumwave (that’s A.M. FYI) and F.M. broadcasters do you think are now under opposition control? Uh, yeah, zero. How many cell phone towers are allowed to freely interact with Iraqi and other nations to broadcast or transmit unauthorized data? Uh, yeah, zero.

Now what happened to the Western news media as soon as the information flow was restricted by the Iranian government? “We” went silent on the elections. You could probably find a story or two in your nearly bankrupt newspaper on page A13 right underneath the July 4th bra and pantie sale at Sears. In reality the coverage though in our broadcast media has been supplanted by the death of a freak, a Charlie’s Angel, and a gentleman who introduced a late night legend. Thus in the average American’s mind, the problem in Iran must be solved because you do not see people getting shot on television every night now. Yet in reality, mass graves are being constructed and executions under way. Can I prove that? No. But it is not a reach when dealing with a psychotic regime which is the equal of a Nazi nation that bows to Mecca daily. They announced they would crush the protests and the VEVAK shall enforce the actions desired by the embittered old fools that run that nation.

So how hard would it be to manipulate information here? Not hard at all. Look at the map above for some idea about shortwave radio ownership and activity by region. Then ask your neighbor if they listen to the Voice of Russia, China Radio International or Radio Australia. The first thing they probably will reply is something like “Is that on Dish or Direct TV?”

The consolidation of information control while expanding information access is the double edged sword that all regimes, be they “democratic” or totalitarian have always dreamed of. The ability to restrict the flow of news and information to citizens allows these governments to create a perpetual power base, creating a nightmare that keeps either party in power and destroying the ability of new ideas to contaminate their sandbox. Thus the dangers of information rationing throughout history become obvious. Americans, and by extension, the “West” have become slovenly in their desires to seek out the truth, ignoring non-approved opinions and ideas. History is replete with examples of the old media assuming the role of history revisionists and thus power brokers for the elite. For example, I was listening to 820 WWBA in Tampa on Thursday morning drive and Steve Roberts the ABC-Radio political reporter tried to justify the weak approach the media took towards Obama by claiming that Clinton despised the mainstream media because it was “their exposure of the Lewinsky story” that caused him all the problems he endured for two years plus. That is a bald faced lie, misstatement, or manipulation of the facts though. It was Matt Drudge at the Drudge Report who blew that whistle and exposed the fact that Michael Isikoff at Newsweek was sitting on the story for weeks.

Yet nobody cares about the lie, the changing of facts or by extension what else they might be lying about.

Thus our mainstream media, by and large, is now an extension, as Rush Limbaugh likes to joke, of a state controlled media, allowing political dissent to be “heard” but dismissed as the rantings of an elite class of ignorant people who just pay more taxes and shut up.

Meanwhile, as I type this, I am sure another hundred Iranians met their fate with a bullet to their heads.

So just how do I tie Rush Limbaugh, mass murdering mullahs, Steve Roberts with ABC radio and shortwave all together?

Think people. The internet has now been demonstrated multiple times as a compromised source of information. If the Iranians can read every email, control every portal and disseminate only information favorable to the regime, then what would stop our much more technologically savvy NSA from doing the same? Nothing, nothing nor one soul at all.

This leaves you limited outlets for information and limited time to learn how to bypass the Goebbelsnet. F.M. and mediumwave (A.M.) radio are limited in their broadcasting range and also already have been set up for government control to usurp the private owners and create a massive ‘emergency’ network for the Federal Government. This leaves shortwave radio as your last source and trust me, if you are a ham radio operator in these times, you are on the same “list” as message board owners, gun owners and broadcasters who refuse to cooperate with a sudden emergency that violates the U.S. Constitution.

Thus a shortwave radio, just to listen might save you. The Iranians thought that the U.S. Information Agency’s broadcasts of Radio Farda would provide needed information in the past but in reality, it is a joke. In recent years the programming staff at USIA due to budgetary restraints has gotten lazy and even broadcast original Iranian government news and information back into Iran instead of our own propaganda! Talk about a huge waste of money and most Iranians would agree. This lesson should not be lost on you though. You have to understand that as America disintegrates, information independent of all sides no matter the bias, could keep you alive. You must learn where, how and what to listen to. Do not trust the government, do not trust your neighbor, do not believe every word being uttered or you could end up like the dead man at the top of this commentary.

Then reflect on the map above again. The “third world” is replete with shortwave radios owned by the citizens yet America thinks that internet streaming is the solution to reach them. Really? Any “streaming” into China is blocked by our own hardware and software inventions. Radio Canada International, about as neutral a nation as there is leases time on Chinese transmitters to broadcast to the region in other languages not to China yet their website is blocked to prevent them from hearing Chinese language broadcasts! Thus the foolishness of using the internet as the “cheap” solution to information providers and governments outside of a particular nation. Also you learn what Goebbels learned back in the early 1930’s; broadcasting to other nations in their languages is the key to creating disruptions in their population and the feelings about their own governments.

Thus the off switch on the internet now takes an even more prominent role.

Public opinion in those nations with huge shortwave radio ownership can easily be moved if a nation desires to. China broadcasts to all of them in their own languages while the United States and the West continue cutting those broadcasts back due to budget constraints. Thus, just who do you think has more influence in those resource rich regions? You guessed correctly if you screamed Chow Mein.

You, the reader, has to take a minute and divorce the Goebbelsnet if you wish to survive. You must learn about alternative means of communications, information gathering, and most importantly other languages if possible to hear the truth after our nation collapses. The debate might rage for years or just months about the pace of our collapse but with the currency about to implode, the lack of cohesiveness and unity in our nation and the Balkanization of our citizens for political exploitation being the rule of the day, it does not take much of a reach to expect the worst here and soon. Learn and learn fast my friends.

Your family’s lives might just depend on it.

24

06/09

Obamarket Update #104 for June 24, 2009: Just the Charts

20:09 by Administrator. Filed under: 2009,ARCHIVES OLD BLOG


Filed under: Old Posts — John Galt @ 8:09 pm

June 24, 2009

John Galt

Just the charts here. I have a long rant about the bumblers to type.

The UTT-BUGLY Chart of the Day, Ambac and if you don’t know why, open a newspaper. It is a crisis emerging but once again the regulators are quiet, blind and thinking it will just go away.

24

06/09

Obamacare Will Create Even More Donut Flight

15:30 by Administrator. Filed under: 2009,ARCHIVES OLD BLOG

By John Galt

July 24, 2009

The ongoing blubbering about America’s need for universal health care and a government program to gain control of our lives has Canadians and other nations smiling from ear to ear. The proverbial ‘flight of the donuts’ will not only insure that institutions of powdered sugar flee our nation in fear of the almighty Health Gestapo to be formed to insure you don’t have that Boston Creme instead of a Tofu Tootie, the flight will just be an acceleration of something these pages have been warning about and shall accelerate. To highlight this point, let us review this story from the Vancouver Sun on June 30, 2009, as our Canadian brethren to the north gloat quite rightfully I might add:

Hortons move signals Canada’s gaining tax appeal

OTTAWA — In a clear indication that Canada is starting to be considered a low-tax place to do business, Tim Hortons Inc. announced Monday plans to shift its base of operations from Delaware to Canada for tax purposes.

The flight of capital from America has begun and the morons in charge have yet to even get their Cap and Trade bill nor the Obamacare plans voted into law. The reality I warned about after the outright theft which occurred in the Chrysler and General Motors’ bankruptcy cases that robbed securitized bond holders blind was the warning shot. The $235 billion in Treasuries to be auctioned next week is a screaming siren but the Bubblevisionistas shall continue to ignore it. The CIT warnings about bankruptcy have Dunkin Donuts franchisees trying to warn Washington to get its house in order.

Yet all the screaming, all of the capital trying to leave our shores does not appear to be sending the message.

Thus I think at some point, some sort of health care plan will pass our hallowed halls in the District of Columbia along with the necessary tax increases to support the broader bureaucratic socialist structures planned by our fearless leaders. The sad, dirty secret is that businesses are already gearing up for the hidden tax of inflation to be inflicted as rumors swirl of an obvious dollar devaluation appears to be underway soon to help restart our export markets and give what is left of American industry some sort of a competitive advantage.

Thus the flight of the donuts will continue, starting with Tim Hortons, which are pretty darned good if you’ve never eaten there, and soon to be followed by Krispy Kreme and Dunkin Donuts if our government is not brought under control. This outrage can not be allowed to continue! Stop taxation and over regulation without representation now!

Oh the ignominy of it all if we allow this to happen unchallenged.

24

06/09

Bernanke Remains In the Box, America Continues to Crash

02:00 by Administrator. Filed under: 2009,ARCHIVES OLD BLOG

By John Galt

June 24, 2009

He must like it in there.

Just what in the world was the FOMC thinking?

Press Release



Release Date: June 24, 2009
For immediate release


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months.

Let me get this straight:

1. Housing starts and permits are at levels unseen since the mid 1960’s when our population was substantially lower.

2. General Motors and Chrysler file Chapter 11 bankruptcy, albeit with unconstitutional assistance from the Executive Branch.

3. Home sales are at mid 1990’s levels.

4. Real unemployment is in excess of 16%.

5. Consumer loans are still constricted at best, highly rationed in reality with such high front end costs to the customer that they are prohibitive to most citizens even at these interest rates.

6. Regulatory oversight of our financial markets is still a joke. (See: Citigroup Halts Some Mortgage Applications, Cites Missing Data )

7. Personal and bankruptcies continue to increase despite the bankster inspired revisions designed to block them. (See:Total Bankruptcy Filings Increase Nearly 35 Percent Over First Quarter 2008 )

8. TEU traffic at our largest ports continues at a historically low pace, intermodal and boxcar traffic is down, over the road trucking statistics are down and one of the largest LTL carriers is on the verge of bankruptcy (YRC).

9. Credit card delinquencies continue to increase. (See: Credit-Card Charge-Offs Surpass 10% In May -Moody’s )

10. The CMBS market is still pretty much locked up, presenting an entirely new set of problems that accelerate in Q3 and Q4 that have not been addressed by the TALF, TARP, CRAP or CARP programs that have done nothing to solve the issues of credit quality in the securitization markets, the ratings agencies issue, or the toxic (aka legacy) debt issue still on the balance sheets.

That’s an improvement?

Back to the FOMC Statement:

Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.

11. May Retail Sales Fall More As Most Stores Miss Projections

Uh, huh. Keep wishing. Unemployed people do not buy anything but food and necessities boys.

Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.

Should not that sentence read “manipulated market forces” as most hedge funds and institutions with intelligent investors are playing it very safe. The fiscal stimulus phrase is a joke so why even begin to address that. And Mr. Ben and gang, I just remind you, regarding the “gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability” phrase of this headline:

12. U.S. Economy In “Shambles” .. No Signs of Recovery Yet

That was from one Mr. Warren Buffett, not John Galt, not any other bloggers. He calls it correct, retailing, manufacturing, whatever (his words not mine) are just not happening yet. Back to the FOMC….

The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

I think he means disinflation. It’s not inflation if you leave $9 trillion off the books and answer the Congress with the “Banker’s Privelage” retort. I also remind you of what old Warren said in the interview above to the CNBC infobabe: “You won’t see deflation in your lifetime.”

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn.

The problem is the agency debt is just being recycled so Fannie and Freddie can buy the Chinese holdings back at a profit to them and to insure they will not nuke our dollar. The reason monetary velocity is in the toilet is that the funds allocated to purchase so-called toxic assets are being used to repurchase the bad MBS from certain foreign owners to prevent a run on the dollar at this time. Thus the reason the Federal Reserve could care less about the population as long as the fiscal appropriations provide a minimal safety net to prevent civil unrest. The fallacy of this statement is that by failing to inflate and commit to it now with any voracity, the danger of any unforeseen event will force another panic response in the near future which destabilizes the economy or the nation further and creates the fuse for hyperinflation immediately removing all controls from the Fed’s hands.

From every appearance, and without some course of action in July, this is another colossal blunder just like the one I said he committed in October of 2007. During that meeting, no major course of action was engaged in by the FOMC which insured the series of collapses in financial institutions the remainder of 2007 and the Bear Stearns fiasco some five months later. That was the chance to inflate heavily, overwhelm the over-leveraged system with cash to acquire and monetize the debt before the boomerang of deleveraging begins.

The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.

I can’t wait to see them buy California.

The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

That’s nice FOMC. Now what about your off balance sheet transactions that are not recorded on any Federal Reserve website. And just when and what are you going to do about the technically insolvent FHLB’s that are stuck holding worthless Countrywide and WaMu paper?

With that statement above, all in italics, and with sarcastic comments included, the Federal Reserve is embarking on another feel good tour to convince the people that are too stupid to understand Donkey Kong and Pac Man up on the Hill that all is well and that “less bad” is good. So to say that “hey you only lost both of your legs but we have your fever under control” is one hell of a statement for the Fed to make at this time.

The economic recovery is a mirage, much like seeing Pamela Anderson with your beer goggles on then realizing you’re hitting up on a 300 lb. Rosie O’Donnel with a 5 o’clock shadow when your buddy slaps you upside the head. The reality is that as long as unemployment continues to rise, housing remains at pre-1970, hell 1990 levels, the automotive sales activity remains at historic lows, and the President of the United States continues to inject socialist partnerships and takeovers of private corporations, there is no reason or market based impetus for the economy to recover before 2011. I was hopeful that the new administration would let the unwinding finish but alas, i was mistaken he was a man of his word and instituting policies that would make 1923 Mussolini blush. These people in charge do not realize that they are stifling financial innovation and as they usurp two centuries of American capitalist freedoms they are creating the pages telling the story of their own demise.

America was never meant to be run as an oligarchy, yet today, sadly, it is nothing more than a banana republic with three piece suited lobbyists, two bit conniving lawyers, and the banksters running our nation into the ground. The “V” shaped recovery is now projected by the ‘experts’ to be more like a W; bunk I say. It is a “L” as on the Highway to HELL much like the post-Soviet oligarchy was, and apparently the model for this government and its banking overseers.

15

06/09

Obamarket Update #98 for June 15, 2009: Ut-Oh Butkwheat!

20:47 by Administrator. Filed under: 2009

Obamarket Update #98 for June 15, 2009: Ut-Oh Butkwheat!

Filed under: Old Posts — John Galt @ 8:47 pm

By John Galt

June 15, 2009

buckwheat.jpg

The President freaked out today when he heard the market report from his economic team!

Hopefully they can push his hair down before he speaks tomorrow about the new seizing of financial corporation’s freedoms when he introduces a new level of bureaucracy guaranteed to expedite the exodus out of our nation’s financial system. The news is not good and a lot of it will not be reported on by the Bubblemedia and of course not by the United States Department of Obama Propaganda (USDOOP). The USDOOP crowd will instead focus on our tribal leader’s imminently more important plan to insure that Grandma Crackers living in a shoebox under an overpass in Washington, D.C. will have access to a public health care insurance program where she can get her corns treated after a hard night of panhandling on K Street. Of course the fact that Grandma Crackers is living in that shoe box under the bridge because one of her Wall Street based brokers took her entire retirement program and doubled down on the now government owned Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, General Motors and Citigroup will never be revealed. Hell at $30 plus per share each, it sounded plausible that stocks, like real estate would never go down, right?

Story#1: New Trend or Running for the Lifeboats?
The start of the run for the lifeboats may have begun in April, but it is way to early to tell. The TIC report was issued today and for those of you who did not read the story from Reuters today:

Foreign buying of US securities drops in April

let me just extract a key point:

“Total net foreign purchases of U.S. equities plunged to $4.58 billion in April from $13.15 billion in March. Meanwhile, foreign investors sold $9.73 billion worth of U.S. corporate bonds in April, compared with purchases totaling $3.54 billion in March.”

But don’t worry, nationalization sprees by President Buckwheat did NOTHING to impact the decision of foreign buyers of our corporate bonds and equities, right? Now that you have stopped laughing and wiped the cocktail off of your keyboard and monitor, the TIC report also reveals that some of the banksters were allowed to have their island entities sell some bonds apparently:

TICapril2009.jpg
Good thing we still have those banksters on the taxpayer dole to buy up any more slack that appears in the Treasury market because I can not believe the old Pirates down there in the islands would stop at $200 billion or even $300 billion to keep the yields in a moderate range between 3-6% on the 10 year Treasury. Remember one other bit of data we’ve been tracking here in bananaland; the 1-3-6 month Treasury yields are still quite low (1700 ET tonight: 0.05%, 0.15%, 0.26% respectively) and that tells me the parking in short term yields for safety is a trend that will persist. There was heavy foreign demand for the six month Treasury today at the auction.

Story#2: Would you buy Insurance from this man?

nedryerson.jpg

Apparently no one else is either. These headlines caught my eye on the feeds today:

Net Premiums Written Drop 16.5% for Life/Health Writers in First Quarter

Insurer Lincoln National to Take Bailout Funds

Hartford to get as Much as $3.4b in TARP Funds

and these are not good signs of good things to come. If you look at the chart of the S&P 500 Insurance Industry Index indicated that the death cross experienced back in 2007:

0615sp500insindex.jpg

I fear we are about to see the insurers start to drop a hint along with the regional banking index and some of the other “superstars” like Citi begin to roll and barf up a hairball taking us to a retest toward the March lows. There is no guarantee that we will get there but a failure by the Fed to support a very weak financial system could easily turn a normal low volume down day like today into a major implosion that cripples equities for the rest of the year. Any hint of tightening up on the liquidity spigots would go against his protestations about the Great Depression and could extend this recession into the second quarter of next year. Watch the insurers gang because as the jobs go, the luxury of life, casualty and property, and auto insurance is often moved into the discretionary spending category in a household of the unemployed.

Story#3: What if you had a Stock Market Rally and Everyone got Bored and Went Home?

First the S&P 500 Volume chart and note the trend since the early May volume peak in both charts:

0615sp500vol.jpg

And now the NYSE volume chart:

0615nyseVOL.jpg

The trend is identical and not an indication of a bullish base building for a new long term move. If we can get one good downturn with a massive volume surge toward the March lows or even a break below them, then we could probably see a long term bottom in this secular bear market.

To make matters worse, the bananas, who have been sunning themselves on the beach and working on a new book,

computerbanana.gif

finally got to take a break and enjoy some downhill summer skiing courtesy of today’s UTT-BUGLY Chart of the Day, that’s right our beloved Dow:

0615dowfinal.jpg

With that being identified as a potential new break to the downside we will all just have to wait and see if the S&P holds the 892 level or if we get one more ramp job going into options expiration this Friday. My money is it is a new break as Doug Kass went to cash and expects at least a 5-10% correction in the short term.

Hope it doesn’t happen in one day Doug or we’ll all be freaking out and we’ll lose a lot of bananas due to skiing accidents.

Until tomorrow night’s fun accelerates with the BRIC meeting and the new regulatory regime from our fearless leaders are announced…..

-John

10

06/09

Now Boarding at Gate C14: Capital Flight Airlines

18:00 by Administrator. Filed under: 2009

by John Galt

June 10, 2009

Ah a beautiful picture of a commercial airliner flying off into the sunset. Except this particular flight is only symbolic of a new phase in the financial crisis which had many a blogger and most people with any sense of sanity deeply concerned:

Capital Flight

I have been warning since last year about the dangers of this happening. I have been screaming that government meddling in the economy, the distortions created by the actions with Bear Stearns, Fannie and Freddie, the banks and now the automobile companies would finally shatter the full faith and confidence of foreign bond and equity holders in our system. Yet the sheeple just graze on their American Idol peanuts like a bunch of ignorant fools while the financial industry says to Uncle Sam “just save me and the hell with the rest of the country” allowing illegal and unconstitutional interventions which distort the true nature of free markets. This dangerous precedent started under that buffoon Bush with the talk up then forced merger of Bear Stearns, an event most have forgotten about because the markets did not experience the ultimate plunge at that time. If one looks at the volume numbers though you could see that everyone, domestic and international institutions alike, were disturbed at the process used to incinerate the equity holders of BSC, and worse, the Federal Reserve’s blatant intervention into the management of the company’s assets which is still reflected in their holdings in Maiden Lane, LLC. that has proven to be a losing proposition thus far.

Fast forward now to the summer of 2008 where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken over by the government, then AIG, then Citigroup, etc., etc. In each case the corporation’s bondholders were made somewhat whole yet that process is still ongoing due to the complicated nature of some of the derivative contracts and other instruments this same government allowed to be created without any supervision or regulatory clue as to the impact on the financial system as a whole. When you have a bureaucrat with taxpayer dollars to guarantee horrid decisions made by private industries, aka “socializing losses, privatizing profits”, then you have distorted the true nature of capitalism and introduced doubt into the functionality and openness of our markets. The first major action last fall to validate the level of distortions started with Hank Paulson’s false bravado about the necessity of the creation of TARP which has turned into what many of us feared, a taxpayer backed slush fund to allow government takeovers of private corporations without due process. That was followed up with the folly of banning short sales on “financial” companies by the SEC which was a joke as many manufacturers were included in the original list and that accomplished zero, zilch, nada with regards to any stabilization of the system and in fact truly induced some foreign institutions and hedge funds to say “goodbye” to the American markets as open and free participation was now a government controlled function and not a function of the natural activity of markets.

That was under Bush, when the dangerous precedents were set. Let’s fast forward to the current day and age several months later when a Socialist President Obama has usurped not just the rule of law, but the basic foundations for the establishment of capitalist markets and our system of finance.

To state that the events of the last ninety days are profound is an understatement. I wish to provide an example that most at home can relate to and will exhibit the audacity of hope, change and fascism we are witnessing on a national scale. Imagine you are living happily at home but due to some job problems at your wife’s place of work her pay is cut in half due to the scaling back of hours thanks to the economy. Your pay is also cut back but not to that degree and your household starts to have problems paying its bills. After paying your mortgage payment late a few months, your local bank representative urges you to attend a meeting to discuss this problem to prevent any action of foreclosure against you if you miss another payment. The bank rep says that only one of you need attend so you elect to go so your wife can work that day. You arrive at the bank and sit down with the head of the home loan division and he has a huge file in front of him that contains all of your mortgage paperwork, payment history, etc. The discussion begins about the problems you are having at home and you explain the troubles you are having. The manager looks you in the eyes and says “Well, it would appear to me the solution is obvious. You will have to divorce your wife if you wish to remain in your home. If you do not within the next fourteen days, we will begin foreclosure proceedings.”

That fictional scenario is exactly what happened when Obama fired the CEO of General Motors. The independent Chief Executive Officer was terminated by a non-member of the Board of Directors, a non-shareholding interest who’s only action was to act as a loan source for company operations. That direct and illegal action should have been (and you were warned by these pages) your first hint that that “damned piece of paper” as Bush called it was no longer relevant. The other aspect one had best consider is that the takeover using taxpayer dollars of AIG, Citigroup and other institutions gave the government trading desks to command and the power to order purchases of various instruments to influence the direction of bond and equity markets. Yet few believed in the PPT and write it off as fluffernuttery; however, how can it be dismissed now when Smith Barney/Morgan Stanley’s trading desk along with AIG’s are now under the thumb of government oversight and this administration has demonstrated openly that regulatory oversight and free markets are irrelevant to their activity and desired goals. It can not now nor ever. The non-shareholder forced bankruptcy by the government with imposed redistribution of assets in the 363 filings for Chrysler and General Motors should prove that beyond the shadow of a doubt.

That being said, last night’s Supreme Court decision and lack of intervention has opened the door to a flight of critical proportions. With contract law now essentially up to the whim of a bureaucrat and not the private agreement between two individuals or corporations, there is no viable guarantee that investment dollars via bonds, preferred shares or common shares hold any validity. They now are as viable as a casino chip and to say that I am overstating this is foolishness on your part. Judge Andrew Napalitano on Glenn Beck’s program Monday evening on the Fox News Channel warned that if this case is not heard and the request for a full hearing denied, it would be almost impossible for any contract law to be worth the paper it was printed on as the Federal government, not the rule of law, would be the determining factor in the validity of any aspect of said contract.

The implications of this are obvious as we are now no different than the Russian Mafia run corporations that defaulted on foreign investors on a regular basis in the 1990’s, where the Russian government took over corporations and seized shareholder and bondholders interests without even batting an eyelash. Foreign capital has yet to return to the Republic of Russia with any volume or voracity and thus one has to ask the question:

Are we really that different?

The answer is obviously a resounding “NO” as any guarantee and faith that backed the rule of law behind our investing instruments is now null and void if the Obama administration feels the empathy to say so otherwise. The result will be a quiet, and I do mean very quiet, exodus out of dollar denominated assets and investments by foreign investors, including sovereign wealth funds and banks. As that exit accelerates and becomes more obvious it will be reflected in the TIC report and US Dollar index first and foremost. Once the US Dollar index drops below the 72 level again, the capital flight will become obvious to all parties involved in our nation and the destruction of our financial system will accelerate as the Federal Reserve will be forced to intervene by monetizing the debt at an accelerated pace to offset the selloff of our Treasuries and to prevent a further collapse of the real estate industry domestically. The problem is now set in place for this problem to feed on itself and there is no exit since the politically unpalatable choice of allowing the natural flow of business, bankruptcy and rebirth, to occur. Thus I look for the remainder of this year to be the most politically unstable period of time in modern American history, and for the world to exit our nation financially to preserve their systems to the best of their ability.

Please put your trays and seats in the upright position. Turbulence is ahead.