Shenandoah

October 30, 2009

by John Galt

From demotivatorsite.com comes the only appropriate answer to Mr. “Buy Bear Stearns at 32″……

by John Galt

October 30, 2009

Even though the Bubblemedia might have you believe that all is improving with the housing market, unless there’s a whole lotta birthin’ going on, we’re in some serious trouble with 18, 843, 000 vacant homes per the latest Census Bureau Report for Q3 2009(PDF File).  As you can see below, the raw numbers do not look that bad at first glance:

That chart, for those who wonder is direct from the report. When you start to review the historical data back to 2000 though, you get a better picture of the condition of our housing markets and realize that this will take years to dig through the inventory, even if we stopped building tomorrow. In the graph below, I decided to post the quarterly data along with the Census Bureau’s category for “Held Off Market” which is a subset of the massive vacant inventory number:

With the Cash for Clunk Houses tax credit soon to expire, a wee bit more of the inventory was put on the market but as you can see, the total number still being held is at a historic high and with the demographics of a retiring population, unless these homes are in prime retiree regions (which some are by the way) and affordable and less than the 2900 square foot McMansions than they will not move. Unless the economic “expansion” gets real and creates millions of new jobs soon, this number will continue to grow and act like an anchor on our economy, creating such a drastic drag that the statistical recovery will be dragged into a prolonged period of flat to negative GDP for many years to come.

By John Galt

October 30, 2009

I’m often told that I blabber too much and don’t let the facts speak for themselves. Well, too bad, I’ll blabber less though and let three key figures do the talking from today’s BEA GDP report.

1. Durable Goods/Non-Durable Goods

Basically we are still below the quarter when the recession started. As many love to say on the financial media only to be shouted down, this is a “Statistical” recovery as this chart and the next two shall bear out.

None too impressive, eh? Stick that in  your Liesman and smoke it.

2. Residential and Non-Residential Structures

Both are still far below the beginning quarter of the recession thus officially making GDP a Bubblevision “lagging” indicator. Wait until they find out that commercial and residential construction still has further to fall.

3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

Uh, that’s not what I would call a “V” shaped recovery in that number. Nor is it that awe inspiring a future indicator for the quarters which follow. Perhaps Obama can double down and get the Congressional spendpigs to double down and add another $2 trillion to the deficit to insure their re-election.

And just for fun, I’ll drag out an oldie but goodie private chart that I shared last year just to illustrate that when you start to compare economic growth via the Nominal GDP numbers compared to the equivalent in 1982 and 1967 (Gold Standard era) dollars, you realize just how much destruction we’ve imposed on our society by diluting our currency:

Woo-Hoo! Rip roaring happy days are here again times return.

Once again boys and girls, don’t believe everything you hear. Once the government trough is taken away and the realization that risk has been assigned to taxpayers while profit assigned to campaign contributors, the capitalist system some of us grew up with will fade quickly into the background.

Parlez-vous Francais?

Say around 1973?

Ugh.