16
12/09
More Government Propaganda: Housing Starts and Permits Report for November
By John Galt
December 16, 2009
I’ll hit the inflation report tomorrow night gang in much more detail but the “huge” increase in housing starts month over month was once again another statistical mirage among many created to make everyone feel their “Animal Spirits” and go hump Santa like a dog in heat with a credit card they’ve attempted to max out over and over again.
First and foremost, why they use “seasonal adjustments” for the Building Permits number on new homes is beyond most people with any common sense. The number is readily available from every county in every state and the reporting is fairly standardized nationwide. As they media attempts to pump you up with more hype, look at this chart for some reality:

Now I’m no expert and no, I did not stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night but sadly, unless I’m blind, those starts are still below the levels of the Eisenhower administration and for some strange reason I just do not think of Obama as Ike in any way, shape or leadership form. But alas, the MSM decided to hype up the Housing Starts data so perhaps the Bubblevision Bubbleconomists had some great news there that even my Department of Commerce spreadsheets missed:

Color me insane but if my eyes do not decieve me, those starts are down there in Ike territory also and I do not mean Hurricane Ike! That’s right gang. When you look at the data that is not seasonally adjusted (Translation: Manipulated to make the Fed and Administration look good), you get new housing permits ringing in at a horribly low 40.2 thousand and housing starts were a 42.2 thousand. Thus the proclamations that housing has improved and more building was on the way, like we needed more empty homes, are completely false and the statistical recovery that is being proclaimed is just that, because without new home building starting up and expanding there is no recovery any time soon.
Because the other dirty little statistical detail that “they” don’t want to admit when they announce new home sales is that they never ever ever ever want to give you a hard number on the amount of actual closings.
Party on Wayne, Party on Garth.
And Merry Grinchmas.
Jim ODonnell
17.12.09
10:28
Here is my sacirical take on Ben Bernanke being named Time Magazine Man of the Year for 2009. He joins Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin in the pantheon of important world figures, this is too good to be true. Read all about it here and see the pictures also:
http://groups.google.com/group/aaa-jod-economics/browse_thread/thread/e837a78b2f3d87b9#
Rookie
17.12.09
16:41
Well this is it…
Last night after my 16 hour work day I saw a replay of Charlie so and so from ABC (all bull crap) interviewing King…sorry…President Obama. I only watched about a minute of it when I broke into a turrets like episode of rage. After my wife calmed me down so I would not wake the children I realized that I am actually well dug in and I need to take comments like Obamas in stride as they are all steps in this great play that non-contrarian, liberal, sheep can not see.
I am sorry if the quote is not perfect but when Charlie asked O how he saw the countries progress, the reply was “I see the health care reform bill as the most important thing to happen to this country since social security”!!!!!!
WTF… SS is dead, its a failure, and if he is promoting the health care bill in tandem with socialist security… Well, I think that was a slipped up, highly quote able line that someone should save that will only compare to the likes of “I’m not a crook”, “I did not have sexual…”, and “turn in your gold”.
When I thought of the comparison between FDR and O, I had an even clearer vision of Ben Bernake being handed the award for person of the year by none other than John Law, who F’d up the fiat monetary system back in France circa 1700ish. That man was praised a savior prior to the collapse of the Mississippi Company and subsequent failure of France in general.
I have a bad feeling that Ben’s Mississippi Company is similar to the JP Morgan Company of today.
Take a glance down, we are falling, how’s your safety net looking? It may be a good idea to fill in the holes with some beans, bullets, and band-aids!
Fight On!
17.12.09
21:53
Wayne: doodledo doodledo (wayne waves his hands)…
Garth: Dude, it’s not a dream! Ewwww..
Wayne: doodledo doodledo (wayne waves his hands)…
Garth: Man, make it go away! It’s not a dream!
_________________________
1-3-6?
1 – 0.01% (down from 0.02)
3 – 0.04% (down from 0.05)
6 – 0.15% (down from 0.17)
Uh, is it time to CQ CQ… where do I go buy myself an amateur radio rig?
The only guys I have ever met who know amateur radio was the dad of one of my friends. The rest of us are on the internet only.
Jim ODonnell
18.12.09
00:31
Well for some reason all this information comes with humor:
[1] Peter Schiff YouTube On Time Man Of The Year
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-yd-eZNf38&feature=sub
[2] Jim Cramer On How To Lose A Bundle On Citi Corp In Three Days
http://groups.google.com/group/aaa-jod-economics/browse_thread/thread/11df11acee04ccaa#
[3] This is the best of all: Blizzard Covers Denmark Under Snow As Global Warming Is Debated, ha-ha-ha-ha
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601130&sid=a5wStc0K6jhY
Alwie
18.12.09
10:17
Hi John, year end is coming. Can write about your prediction what’s going to happened at 2010, quarter by quarter?
Thanks.
Administrator
18.12.09
10:21
I shall be doing so over the next two weeks. And grading my predictions from January 2, 2009. Some were good, some really really sucked.
Mark
18.12.09
14:22
hey john what do u think of the possibilities of a weak then failed treasury auction next year.
TommyT
18.12.09
15:25
Interesting housing blog on California…
the housing starts reflect the presence of the shadow inventory…
http://tinyurl.com/ycu63hd
(Doctor Housing Bubble blog has been covering the issue of these shadow inventories. These are thousands of homes where the foreclosure already occurred, no one lives there, and the home is not being sold or moved).
The current housing price is artificially over inflated based upon the permissiveness of the accounting. Since the accounting does not force the banks to “mark to market”, the home can be left in limbo and the banks never have to reflect reality.
It is a very bad thing when your central banking institutions do not need to reflect the reality around it.
Administrator
18.12.09
20:12
Very, very likely. As in with a HUGE tail that shocks the markets…