24

12/09

Economic Data Dump For Christmas Eve: Durable Goods Numbers “Ain’t” what they seem

14:43 by Administrator. Filed under: Whatever

by John Galt

December 24, 2009

That is the headline number you will hear touted on the news all day. If you were watching Bubblevision and their Bubbleconomists Bob Barbera and Steve Liesman both pumped it as a good sign.

Bah Humbug.

The Report from the Department of Commerce when you actually break it down is not an indication of a “growing” economy if anything it is further validation that we are witnessing a government voodoo statistical GDP pump and dump and that in fact the U.S. economy is still in fact contracting when you subtract the witch doctor accounting (FASB 157 repeal) and “stimulus” spending. Let’s take a look at the numbers I prefer to watch and that would be New Orders for Durable Goods, non-seasonally adjusted (Raw data) on a year over year basis:

If the manufacturing sector were indeed recovering new orders and shipments of machinery, fabricated metals and primary metals would look much stronger. Instead off of a report that indicates growth off of 2008′s weak numbers we in fact are continuing a slump which started in the economy in December of 2007 and has continued. For comparison, let’s look at the same chart (with Seasonal Adjustments and without) from November 2007:

If you take the Year to Date numbers excluding defense on a non-seasonal basis, it amounts to a 27% decline from 2007 and this means there is no recovery, no growth and total nonsense being spewed by the Bubbleconomists and administration spokescritters. If you think it is bad now, wait until Q1 of 2010 when the markets realize that the opiate of the masses did not work and that in fact there is no real expansion under way. Meanwhile next week the United States is going to attempt to auction of $118 billion in Treasuries next week and just how well is that going to go over?

To make matters worse, the unemployment claims and EUC claims (Emergency Unemployment Claims) are trending in the WRONG direction heading into the Christmas season….

Thus why I’m warning everyone to keep your powder dry but enjoy the Christmas season with your families and we’ll get back into the tragedy which is Obamanomics and the Marxist usurpation of the United States of America.

I shall return after December 25th to publish more fun, more information and hopefully something that you can use to help your family prepare for what is about to become the most turbulent year in U.S. history both economically and Constitutionally, in my opinion. On December 26th I shall start reviewing the predictions I made on January 2, 2009 for this year and begin to post the predictions for this year so you can scream “you suck” and yell “scoreboard” on my misses and I can spike the football on the touchdowns I scored. On December 27th I shall post the Chapter IX of the The Day the Dollar Died Series here for those who are keeping track and more predictions along with an editorial about the dangers our society now faces.

With all of that gloom, doom and other stuff now off the table, please remember and try to help someone in need, not just today and tomorrow but every day you possibly can. Our society was built on the morals and values of helping our neighbors and sharing in times of need. That is the lesson behind the Christmas season among oh so many others but enjoy it with your family and do all you can to put a smile on a child’s face.

God Bless Everyone and a Merry Christmas to All!

-John

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