Recovery? Nah, more Pain to Go!

by John Galt

Thank you Barry.

You gave us hope.

I’ll shoot back with some change.

You see, some people actually believe the “national” summary reports. Then again, I like to look at the big picture by dissecting the smaller ones. Instead of just using my the FRED charts from the Federal Reserve in St. Louis to look at the big national picture, I thought I would pick four states at random but not so random. The largest and third largest (CA and FL) versus two smaller ones but in different regions, Missouri in the Midwest and Delaware in the East. While Delaware is a very small sampling, it’s corporate headquarter base and relative population should provide a decent sampling to compare to the other three, but the charts are what tell the story. I looked at the big story, housing permits and starts, unemployment, and coincident economic growth. Other than the vacancy rate not being as severe in Missouri as the rest nor the other non-farm issues, the other states indicate we have rolled over as of 2008 and this will accelerate at least through the third quarter of 2009 in my opinion unless the Obamamiracle takes hold.

I think it will, but only as an inflationary government employment mirage as the private sector has no motivation (that’s profit for those of you in Ft. Pierce, FL and Rio Linda, CA as Rush likes to say) to expand nor create new jobs due to the threat of revisions in the tax system and supervision of capital creation from the new administration. With that in mind, I warn you, these charts reflect not my opinion; they are straight from the Federal Reserve. Think about what they indicate and the fact that unless two of the three largest states in GDP and population recover, any recovery “claimed” by this current regime is a mirage.

Enjoy the charts:

Yes I do actually think the Florida and California unemployment rates top out above 12%. We married the devil and forget that industry and manufacturing, not housing and “service” creates real jobs.

For comparison, that’s the 1st and 3rd largest states. Let’s look at an Eastern state and Midwestern state:

Delaware will be toasted by their location and dependence on the financial industry. No Bidenomics here….
Missouri will recover sooner because they have been there, done that and have the agricultural and manufacturing base to move out of the recession before many states.

So what does economic growth look like? Let’s look at the coincident charts for each of these states…

I do not see Missouri suffering as much as the other states, and for the record all lines are my estimates of worse case scenarios and potential bottoms or end of moves. The worst case scenario is we return to levels of growth and employment of 1990-1992 which in this day and age would be a total meltdown thanks to population growth and the boomer retirement crisis plus the illegals still resident in the states.

To indicate that the NAR (National Association of Realtors) is still on crack, enjoy the following charts from the FED, current as of 2-1-09 and not revised yet….

Woohoo! FL is back to before 1985 levels in permits issued! I guess the snakes want a new home.

Uh, yo quiero Taco “holy crapola” senor?

Small chart, small numbers. Oh, and that is total units, not in “thousands” FYI….

Maybe MO sucks too!

Well, single family is no better. Need I say more? For a population of over 18 million that’ sit, less than 2000 permits. We are not recovering any time soon.

Ditto California. Do the math.

Who would want to live next door to Biden anyways?

Good thing they grow things for now there in the Midwest….

I would post the tax receipt charts but they are all flat lined through 2008 without any data from the Fed (gee what a shock) since 1/1/2008. As soon as that is updated I hope to post those but these charts shoudl give everyone some hint as to the depths of the crisis we are in. When states like California and Florida issue less than 2000 permits for single family homes, it means “recovery” is a long way off. The fact is single family and any sized unit permits are lagging indicators of future growth. This means that if you see a permit issued there is now only about a 60% chance of the building actually being financed or completed.

Let that sink in. And this is before the Commercial Real Estate crisis comes home to impact every market already hurting from the Residential crash.

The recession does not end until Q4 at the earliest.

Let that sink in, no matter the lies the Bubblevision networks or Obamites try to preach.