Tropical Season Heats Up: Invest 91L 100% chance of development

By John Galt
July 30, 2011

It would appear that July might mew out like a kitten with a very weak storm named Don, but with the activity picking up in the Atlantic basin August could be roaring in like 2005.

I personally hope not because who wants to go through that again.

From the National Hurricane Center in Miami:

(CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ENLARGE or REDUCE SIZE)

This will probably be the last satellite photo for this thread we’ll see today before I start a Tropical Storm/Hurricane Emily thread:

INVEST 91L

And now this special statement at 1655 EDT which really throws the tropics into a loop:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 312053
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

UPDATED…COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER…REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
…ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE…AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE…NEAR 100 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
…TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE…AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN

0800 7/31 TWO:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SATELLITE IMAGES AND NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AND
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED…AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY
TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…NEAR 100 PERCENT…OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY…TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART000
ABNT20 KNHC 302332
TWOAT

Tags: HURRICANE, HURRICANE SEASON, INVEST, TROPICAL STORM