By John Galt
August 19, 2011
Only update for this storm folks as it is a Central American event. Pray for those poor people as it could get ugly with mudslides and flooding.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 192353
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
…AIRCRAFT FINDS HARVEY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS…
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.1N 84.6W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 255 MI…415 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED.
AT 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH…14 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS
HARVEY APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT…AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT…AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL…HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS…GUATEMALA…AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES…ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
Go north, young Harvey, go north! Or go to Acapulco and then turn northeast! Chihuahua needs rain! I need rain! Texas needs rain!