By John Galt
September 2, 2011 – 17:50 ET
Now that I’ve rejoined the 21st Century, the hurricane season accelerates. Pray for New Orleans folks and pray this storm does not stall.
Usual and full package below.
Satellite photos from NOAA will update automatically along with track updates from the NHC:
T.S. LEE - VISIBLE
T.S. LEE - INFRAFRED
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NHC ADVISORIES
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 022051
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
…TROPICAL STORM LEE DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA COAST…SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA…
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.5N 91.5W
ABOUT 185 MI…295 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS…INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS…LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH…4 KM/H. A SLOW AND
POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.
REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325
KM…MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 60 MPH WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED ON AN OIL RIG LOCATED ABOUT 65
MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AN ALTITUDE A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI…AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY…WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING…ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE WARNING AREA OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN THESE AREAS. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING…MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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NHC TROPICAL STORM DISCUSSION
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 022052
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
DATA FROM SATELLITES…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…DOPPLER RADARS AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE TROPICAL STORM
LEE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.
BUOY AND OIL RIG REPORTS OF 39-42 KT…ALONG WITH RELIABLE RECON
SFMR WINDS OF 38-40 KT…JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 2 KT.
LEE REMAINS TRAPPED IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A DEEP
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES AND
DIGS SOUTHWARD. BY 48 HOURS…THE NARROW RIDGE TO THE WEST OF LEE
THAT EXTENDS FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO MISSOURI IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO SLOWLY ERODE…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE AND MOVE TOWARD LOUISIANA. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY 72 HOURS SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER…ALBEIT LESS
THAN 10 KT…FORWARD MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. BY DAY 4 OR 5…A
WEAKENED LEE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY…THE
SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A HEAVY
RAINFALL SCENARIO OVER LOUISIANA AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS A
BLEND OF THE GFS… UKMET…AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LEE HAS BECOME ENTANGLED WITH A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THIS CONFIGURATION SOMETIMES LEADS
TO A RAPID SPIN UP OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL VORTEX…VERY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS UNFAVORABLE CONDITION IS EXPECTED
TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE FOR THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS…DESPITE THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND THE CYCLONE BEING OVER VERY
WARM SSTS DURING THIS TIME. BY 48 HOURS…THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH…WHICH SHOULD ACT TO CAP OFF THE STRENGTHENING
PROCESS AS LEE ALSO MOVES OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS…AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE NHC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL…ICON…WITH THE
STATISTICAL MODELS ABOVE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BELOW THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 27.5N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 27.9N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 28.5N 91.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 29.2N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 29.7N 91.1W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 30.1N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 31.5N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
120H 07/1800Z 33.6N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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