By John Galt
September 7, 2011 07:10-
Since this storm is behaving and will recurve back out to sea, this will be the final update on it unless there is a sudden change in direction. Last updates from NHC in this posting below. If you wish to follow the storm further, please consult the NHC website.
September 5, 2011 17:25-
Another major hurricane but thankfully this is looking as if it will recurve out to sea. I’ll continue to update until it’s no longer a threat to the U.S. New models and updates below.
September 4, 2011 20:15-
I have been busy enjoying some family time the last few days and since Katia has been more of a non-event than worthy of getting in a froth about, it is time to start updating everything again. Below are the latest model runs, advisory, and discussion. More to follow if it becomes a threat to the islands or U.S.
September 2, 2011 17:35-
Yes Virginia, there is a customer service rep in America that does a halfway decent job. I’m back online after almost 18 hours of internet depravity and of course updating my loyal readers and listeners. Back to the hurricane….
The storm continues to chug along to the West then West-Northwest but some scary indications are starting to appear at the end period of some of the model runs, as I commented on to some members of S2k a few days ago. IF this storm shifts west towards the Carolinas and East Coast, the fact that Irene was a non-event could lull a sense of false security into the same people that were way to easy to make fun of a week ago. Let’s hope that’s not the case. Full update and new model runs are now below with a new update at 2300 ET tonight and again early in the morning.
September 1, 2011 05:00-
She’s gaining strength steadily and after the shear drops off in the next 24 hours, intensity is expected to increase rapidly to a Cat 2 or 3 storm. Model runs below have been updated also.
August 31, 2011 – 17:30 ET -
Up to 70mph. Will update model runs in the morning but is looking more like a “fish” at the moment….
August 30, 2011 – 05:00 ET
And let the fun and games begin as Katia has officially formed with the 0500 update. Tropical Storm Katia advisory #1 and discussion is below.
August 29, 2011 – 1100:
Here we go again….
Yup, another Tropical Depression has formed and TD12 is in a historic region for the Cape Verde portion of the hurricane season where some very strong storms have developed. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) this will probably become Katia very, very soon. Below is the usual model runs, satellite pics, etc. and this thread will change names after the storm is named by the NHC.
Satellite is in position so photos will update automatically:
NOAA VISIBLE
NOAA INFRARED
First model runs (Click on image to enlarge/reduce):
==================================================
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORIES
==================================================
000
WTNT32 KNHC 070843
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011
…KATIA A LITTLE WEAKER…EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.7N 67.9W
ABOUT 310 MI…500 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…973 MB…28.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CORE OF KATIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY…
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES…335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB…28.73 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…BERMUDA…THE GREATER
ANTILLES…AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…ARE
POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY.
RAINFALL…KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
=====================================
HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION
=====================================
000
WTNT42 KNHC 070849
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KATIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WARMING AND
DRY AIR APPEARS TO WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION…THE LATTER GIVING THE CYCLONE A SOMEWHAT HOLLOW
APPEARANCE. IN ADDITION…THERE APPEARS TO BE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE HURRICANE…AS EVIDENCED BY CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS AND
CONFIRMED BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE LOWER…AND A REASONABLE BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KT. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT
BEGAN 24-36 HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN INTERRUPTED…WITH EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING AN OUTER EYEWALL AT LARGE RADIUS THAT WAS
NOT CONTRACTING MUCH. THIS STRUCTURE…ALONG WITH THE MODERATE
SHEAR…SUGGESTS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH…FOLLOWED BY ONLY A
SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS KATIA REMAINS OVER
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. AFTER 72 HOURS…KATIA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ALONG A STRONG GRADIENT OF SSTS AND ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT…BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID
TRANSITION TO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS LOWERED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A FAIRLY SLOW 315/08. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW KATIA
GRADUALLY TURNING FROM NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT…THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN HANDLING THE STEERING FLOW
AROUND THE STORM WELL FOR SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES AND IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED…GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK…WITH THE CURRENT
NHC TRACK AGAIN CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 28.7N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 29.8N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 31.7N 69.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 34.0N 69.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 36.4N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 40.9N 58.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 47.0N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 59.0N 17.5W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
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