Tropical Storm Nate: Soon to sip some Tequila?

By John Galt
September 9, 20111 05:10

Nate is starting to look better and appears to be a Mexico storm thus this will be my last update unless there is a dramatic shift in the models or upper air patterns.

 

September 8, 2011 15:45

This storm does not appear to be a threat to the U.S. despite the apparent weird model run amok during the last run. Updates will only occur once daily unless it shifts and becomes a threat to South Texas. Welcome to the teeth of the active hurricane season….

Satellite photos will update automatically from NOAA:

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NCAR/SWFMUD MODEL PLOTS

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(click to enlarge/reduce charts)

nate_0908_ncar

nate_0908_swfmud

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TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 090852
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011

…NATE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY…STILL NEARLY STATIONARY…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.9N 92.3W
ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI…290 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN GULF
COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST. NATE HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY…BUT A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO…WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NATE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT…CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION…AND NATE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE EITHER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AND AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL…NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE AND TABASCO…AND OVER SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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TROPICAL STORM DISCUSSION

===============================================

000
WTNT45 KNHC 090855
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011

NATE HAS SEEMINGLY WEAKENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS…ALTHOUGH THERE
HAS BEEN A MODEST COMEBACK OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. THE HIGHEST
SFMR WINDS REPORTED FROM THE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE AROUND 06Z
WERE 47 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT…AN AREA WHERE 60 KT SFMR
WINDS WERE FOUND YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS ALSO
UP…TO 998 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA…THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 55 KT. AN ASCAT PASS ALSO SUGGESTS THE WIND RADII HAVE
CONTRACTED.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NATE IS STILL
ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY…AND THE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO STRONGER
AGREEMENT THAT NATE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD
PROGRESS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A NARROW RIDGE DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NATE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. IN FACT…THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF GUIDANCE NOW THAT TAKES NATE WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SOUTHERNMOST MODEL IS THE HFIP
COAMPS-TC…WHILE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS
DEFINED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE PRESENT MODEL SUITE REQUIRES A
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST…WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF BUT STILL NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

ALTHOUGH NATE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE…THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A DIFLUENT AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT…AND ONCE NATE BEGINS TO MOVE IT WILL HAVE
A DEEPER RESERVOIR OF VERY WARM WATER UNDERNEATH. THE DRY AIR IN
THE WESTERN GULF APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE TRADITIONAL
GUIDANCE…CLOSE TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL…THE HWRF…AND
GFDL. AMONG THE HFIP MODELS…WHICH AS A GROUP PERFORMED VERY WELL
DURING IRENE…THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN UWN8 IS MOST
AGRESSIVE…BRINGING NATE TO ABOUT 90 KT…WHILE THE COAMPS-TC AND
AHW ARE 15-25 KT LOWER.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.9N 92.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.3N 92.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 20.7N 93.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 20.8N 94.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.9N 95.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 20.5N 97.5W 80 KT 90 MPH…INLAND
96H 13/0600Z 20.0N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
120H 14/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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