Tropical Storm Maria: Getting her Act Together finally

By John Galt
September 12, 2011 08:55

This will be the final update. Advisory is below. Storm does not appear to be a threat to the U.S.

September 11, 2011 08:30

She’s getting her act together but after a trip through Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands it does not look like it will be a threat except possibly to Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane.

September 10, 2011 08:00

Latest report is looking like this could become a fizzle soon so let’s up. Discussion and public advisory updated below.

September 9, 2011 05:05

So far, so good as the models indicate it should probably curve out to sea but because it is still a weak tropical storm, accuracy in these models is somewhat iffy. I’ll post new model runs after the 1800 UTC runs this afternoon, meanwhile discussion and public advisory are now updated. Well, she’s not disappointing anyone who thought she might misbehave. Some of the models are having trouble with her because of her poor organization and fast forward speed to the West. We’ll see what happens overnight and hope that if dissipates but is is THAT time of year. Models and advisories updated and will now appear at least twice daily and more if she becomes a threat to the United States.

September 7, 2011 – 12:50 ET

Here we go again. And the snippet from the National Hurricane Center’s graphics page was hilarious because of what it said (circled portion):

Meanwhile, back on the storm front, here is the usual package of satellite pictures and advisories. Satellite photos will update automatically from NOAA:

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NCAR/SWFMUD MODEL PLOTS

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(click to enlarge/reduce charts)

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TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 120840
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST MON SEP 12 2011

…MARIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.8N 66.3W
ABOUT 165 MI…270 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 800 MI…1285 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND PASS WELL EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES EAST OF THE
CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIND…WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN…IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…AND THE
EXTREME NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM AST.

$$

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TROPICAL STORM DISCUSSION

===============================================

000
WTNT44 KNHC 110837
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

ALTHOUGH SHEARED…FINALLY MARIA LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATELLITE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED. IN FACT…BOTH TAFB AND SAB
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE WAS IN MARIA UNTIL AROUND 0600 UTC…AND FOUND THAT THE
CIRCULATION WAS BETTER DEFINED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ONLY…AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004
MB. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 50 KNOTS. HAVING SAID THAT…WATER VAPOR
IMAGES STILL SHOW THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MARIA PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING THIS TROUGH…BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESILIENT AND IT
HAS NOT GONE YET. ON THIS BASIS…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS…WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS
THE LGEM MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSERVATIVE…BUT IN
GENERAL MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE
SAME STEERING PATTERN THAT IN GENERAL HAS PREVAILED THIS SEASON…
AND MOST LIKELY WILL FORCE MARIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST LIES IN MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH IT IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MARIA
WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS…AND THEN RECURVING IT BETWEEN THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND BERMUDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 19.0N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 20.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 21.5N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 22.5N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 23.5N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 27.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 43.0N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: HURRICANE, HURRICANE SEASON 2011, MARIA, NHC, NOAA, TROPICAL STORM