9/15 Unemployment Claims: Seasonally Adjusted=BOHICA, NSA=Re-election Party

By John Galt
September 15, 2011 – 17:20 ET

So let’s get this straight; if you listen to the headlines today, the Great Depression started last week.

BUT, if you look at the non-seasonally adjusted numbers, the recovery is around the corner again (and again, and again, and again, …etc.).

I tend to lean towards the NSA numbers only because I believe raw data is a better indicator and despite the improvements of the last month, the reality is that we are still substantially above the 300K level and lower which indicate pre-recessionary levels of claims. Time will tell as the number is probably honest since Christmas hiring for warehousing and retail help began last week and with the holiday on Monday there was one less day to file claims. The next two reports will indicate the reality of the situation.

Here is the first block from the report this morning:

(Click to enlarge/reduce chart)


The weekly chart looks great but the revisions continue to increase by 2,000+ per week and with the “holiday” period of Labor Day ending, I expect this number to climb substantially and cause the seasonally adjusted figures to stabilize in the low 400,000 range if not a tad lower.


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