9/21 Tropical Storm Ophelia: A weak storm but worth watching

By John Galt
September 23, 05:15

She looks like she’s fading fast and no further updates after this morning’s advisory will be posted on this storm.


September 22, 2011 05:00

She looks like she’s trying to get more organized but shear is strong and the probability of a recurve out to sea via Bermuda is growing stronger. We’ll check this again tonight at 17:00 ET.

 

September 21, 2011 05:00 This one is forecast to be impacted by massive shear so it may not amount to much of anything if it survives the march into the NW Caribbean, but if it does it will be worth watching for residents of the Southeast U.S.   Satellite photos will update automatically from NOAA:

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NCAR/SWFMUD MODEL PLOTS

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(click to enlarge/reduce charts)

ophelia_ncar0921_0600

ophelia_swfmd_0921_0600

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

000
WTNT31 KNHC 230851
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

…OPHELIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.5N 51.0W
ABOUT 740 MI…1190 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H…AND A
MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS…AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES…415
KM…MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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