Tropical Storm Philippe: No threat to the CONUS but Storm #17 in a busy season

By John Galt
September 24, 2011 17:15

No further updates other than this entry as this storm is projected to become a hurricane then fizzle in the North Atlantic as a fish. The fascinating storyline though is that the season is still quite active and running far above the averages. Let’s hope this doesn’t mean October and November mean a lot of action for those of us in the Southeastern U.S.

Satellite photos will update automatically from NOAA:

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NCAR/SWFMUD MODEL PLOTS

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(click to enlarge/reduce charts)

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TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 242055
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

…DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…11.2N 27.9W
ABOUT 345 MI…550 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 27.9 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY…FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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TROPICAL STORM DISCUSSION

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000
WTNT42 KNHC 242056
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS RESULT…THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT…WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS BEEN
SLOWLY IMPROVING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48-72
HOURS…A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W
LONGITUDE AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PHILIPPE SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…
AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL POSITION…AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN IS EXPECTED TO BE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE THE GREATEST. BY 72 HOURS…SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT…WHICH MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
AS A RESULT…PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
48-72 HOURS…AND THEN LEVEL OFF SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST BY THE
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER…IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE
PHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 11.2N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 11.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 12.5N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 13.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 14.8N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 22.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: HURRICANE, HURRICANE SEASON 2011, PHILIPPE, TROPICAL STORM