10/19 Housing Data: Not as good as the Headline Propaganda, as usual

By John Galt
October 19, 2011 – 21:45 ET

US Economy: Home Starts Jump, Consumer Prices Stabilize

BusinessWeek 

Housing starts jump 15 percent in September

Kansas City Star

Increase in housing starts could portend improving market

The Hill (blog)

Just sigh. There is no bottom until there is no hope.

When will these people learn?

Of curse when there is an agenda to yell into an empty stadium for everyone to rise up and cheer, the current crop of “journalists” and “economists” acting as agents of propaganda do the best they can even though the majority of the masses reply with cat calls of “BS” as they proclaim the recovery is just cooking along.

The housing data all but verifies that the U.S. residential market is still bouncing along the bottom and with this bleak out look from today’s report, it is highly unlikely we will see the recovery which so many have called for in 2010, er, 2011, er, 2012, er, 2013, etc….

The first chart, the the data of total  permits issued, single and multi-family, is still far below any level for modern history:

(Click to enlarge/reduce chart size)

permits_jgfla_sept2011

 Ouch. But the most revealing chart is that of single family permits which dove 40,800 to 35, 900 on a non-seasonally adjusted bases from August to September:

permits_singlefam_jgfla_sept2011

The new chart I’m introducing has a lagging indicator displaying permits issued v. residential construction, both non-seasonally adjusted:

permitsvresconstspendnsa_jgfla_aug_sept2011

If this were a true housing recovery both would be skyrocketing upwards but it has been nothing but starts and stops with sharp sudden declines all far below historic norms.

That’s just a brutal outlook for the construction industry in early 2012. The starts data pretty much reflects the same with single family housing starts dropping from 38,600 to 37,700 offset by a large increase (over 7,000) in multi-family units:

starts_jgfla_sept2011

Units under construction also reflected the dead housing market in the September report:

under_const_jgflasept2011

Lastly, the completed units which thankfully have not accelerated, seems to finally be tamping down the inventory slightly, but as the foreclosures ramp up, do not expect this number to do anything but decline as more small builders fall to the wayside.

completions_jgflasept2011

Thus why I say ignore the headlines and grab the spreadsheets to find reality. The U.S. is on pace for the lowest dollar total for residential construction spending in modern history if this trend continues. However, since unemployed construction workers do not count if they were laid off in 2007 or 2008, it really can’t be that bad for the political class when dealing with the mistakes they’ve made in the past and continue to make which is destroying the housing economy of our nation.

%d bloggers like this: