The FDIC DIF cost for October 2011 totaled an estimated 776.7 million dollars. Rounded out to the nearest million dollars we get 777 million dollars (lucky sevens?).  This total ends the well established 17 month DIF cost pattern. If the pattern would of held this month, we should have seen DIF cost between 1.1 – 1.3 billion dollars.

So what’s next? We will just have to wait and see.

What have we learned in the past seventeen months?

Here is my evidence that the too big to fail bar has been lowered. On April 30^th 2010 the FDIC got hammered by large DIF cost. Since that day, the too big to fail bar has been lowered.

The list below shows the last group of weekly closures by the FDIC prior to the 17 month pattern. That Friday there were five closures. Three of those cost the FDIC over 1 billion dollars each.

Since that day we have not seen a single bank failures which has cost the FDIC over 1 billion dollars. As a matter of fact, the largest single bank failure had an estimated DIF cost of 406.9 million dollars. See list below.

DATE	STATE	BANK NAME	COST IN MILLIONS
10/15/10	MO	Premier Bank	406.9
8/20/10	IL	ShoreBank	367.7
10/22/10	KS	Hillcrest Bank	329.7
1/21/11	CO	United Western Bank	312.8
4/29/11	GA	The Park Avenue Bank	306.1
6/4/10	NE	TierOne Bank	297.6
8/19/11	FL	Lydian Private Bank	293.2
7/8/11	IL	First Chicago Bank & Trust	284.3
7/8/11	CO	Colorado Capital Bank	283.8
5/20/11	GA	Atlantic Southern Bank	273.5
9/23/11	VA	Bank of the Commonwealth	268.3
1/28/11	NM	First Community Bank	260
4/15/11	AL	Superior Bank	259.6
1/28/11	CO	FirsTier Bank	242.6
7/23/10	GA	Crescent Bank and Trust Company	242.4
10/21/11	CO	Community Banks of Colorado	224.9
5/14/10	IL	Midwest Bank and Trust Company	216.4
7/22/11	CO	Bank of Choice	213.6
11/5/10	MD	K Bank	198.4
6/25/10	FL	Peninsula Bank	194.8
4/29/11	MI	Community Central Bank	183.2
4/15/11	AL	Nexity Bank	175.4
7/29/11	IN	Integra Bank National Association	170.7
6/11/10	WA	Washington First International Bank	158.4
5/20/11	GA	First Georgia Banking Company	156.5
11/19/10	WI	First Banking Center	142.6
11/12/10	GA	Darby Bank & Trust Co.	136.2
8/5/11	WA	Bank of Whitman	134.8
10/7/11	MO	Sun Security Bank	118.3
8/12/11	KS	The First National Bank of Olathe	116.6
7/30/10	OR	LibertyBank	115.3
7/16/10	SC	Woodlands Bank	115
10/1/10	FL	Wakulla Bank	113.4
9/17/10	GA	The Peoples Bank	98.9
5/28/10	NV	Sun West Bank	96.7
2/18/11	CA	San Luis Trust Bank FSB	96.1
7/30/10	FL	Coastal Community Bank	94.5
4/29/11	GA	First Choice Community Bank	92.4
5/28/10	FL	Bank of Florida – Southwest	91.3
2/18/11	GA	Habersham Bank	90.3
12/10/10	MI	Paramount Bank	90.2
5/7/10	CA	1st Pacific Bank of California	87.7
2/11/11	MI	Peoples State Bank	87.4
9/17/10	WI	Maritime Savings Bank	83.6
9/24/10	FL	Haven Trust Bank Florida	83.6
10/15/10	KS	Security Savings Bank, F.S.B.	82.2
6/18/10	NV	Nevada Security Bank	80.9
1/14/11	GA	Oglethorpe Bank	80.4
6/17/11	GA	McIntosh State Bank	80
5/7/10	FL	The Bank of Bonifay	78.7
7/9/10	OK	Home National Bank	78.7
1/7/11	FL	First Commercial Bank of Florida	78
7/16/10	SC	First National Bank of the South	74.9
7/23/10	NV	SouthwestUSA Bank	74.1
9/24/10	WA	North County Bank	72.8
8/13/10	IL	Palos Bank and Trust Company	72
10/14/11	GA	Piedmont Community Bank	71.6
2/4/11	GA	American Trust Bank	71.5
5/28/10	FL	Bank of Florida – Southeast	71.4
9/17/10	GA	First Commerce Community Bank	71.4
10/7/11	MN	The RiverBank	71.4
4/15/11	GA	Bartow County Bank	69.5
6/25/10	GA	First National Bank	68.9
7/30/10	WA	The Cowlitz Bank	68.9
8/6/10	IL	Ravenswood Bank	68.1
7/16/10	FL	Metro Bank of Dade County	67.6
7/9/10	NY	USA Bank	67.1
10/14/11	IL	Country Bank	66.3
7/15/11	GA	High Trust Bank	66
7/29/11	SC	BankMeridian N.A.	65.4
10/21/11	GA	Community Capital Bank	62
2/18/11	GA	Citizens Bank of Effingham	59.4
9/10/10	FL	Horizon Bank	58.9
1/21/11	NC	The Bank of Asheville	56.2
9/17/10	GA	Bank of Ellijay	55.2
9/30/11	TX	First International Bank	53.8
4/15/11	MS	Heritage Banking Group	49.1
9/9/11	FL	First National Bank of Florida	46.9
1/21/11	SC	CommunitySouth Bank & Trust	46.3
10/14/11	NJ	First State Bank	45.8
7/23/10	FL	Sterling Bank	45.5
7/15/11	GA	One Georgia Bank	44.4
9/2/11	GA	Patriot Bank of Georgia	44.4
11/12/10	AZ	Copper Star Bank	43.6
3/11/11	WI	Legacy Bank	43.5
4/29/11	FL	First National Bank of Central Florida	42.9
11/19/10	FL	Gulf State Community Bank	42.7
3/25/11	IL	The Bank of Commerce	41.9
5/7/10	AZ	Towne Bank of Arizona	41.8
10/1/10	WA	Shoreline Bank	41.4
6/24/11	GA	Mountain Heritage Bank	41.1
5/28/10	FL	Bank of Florida – Tampa	40.3
7/30/10	GA	Northwest Bank & Trust	39.8
1/21/11	GA	Enterprise Banking Company	39.6
8/19/11	GA	First Southern National Bank	39.6
10/21/11	FL	Old Harbor Bank	39.3
10/14/11	NC	Blue Ridge Savings Bank, Inc	38
9/23/11	CA	Citizens Bank of Northern California	37.2
7/23/10	OR	Home Valley Bank	37.1
6/3/11	SC	Atlantic Bank and Trust	36.4
2/4/11	GA	North Georgia Bank	35.2
5/27/11	WA	First Heritage Bank	34.9
7/16/10	FL	Turnberry Bank	34.4
7/22/11	FL	LandMark Bank of Florida	34.4
10/22/10	GA	The First National Bank of Barnesville	33.9
10/22/10	AZ	First Arizona Savings, AFSB	32.8
8/20/10	CA	Pacific State Bank	32.6
10/21/11	GA	Decatur First Bank	32.6
4/8/11	NV	Nevada Commerce Bank	31.9
7/16/10	FL	Olde Cypress Community Bank	31.5
10/22/10	IL	First Suburban National Bank	31.4
5/14/10	GA	Satilla Community Bank	31.3
4/8/11	IL	Western Springs National Bank and Trust	31
8/19/11	IL	First Choice Bank	31
4/15/11	GA	New Horizons Bank	30.9
2/11/11	FL	Sunshine State Community Bank	30
5/14/10	MO	Southwest Community Bank	29
6/17/11	FL	First Commercial Bank of Tampa Bay	28.5
1/7/11	AZ	Legacy Bank	27.9
9/2/11	GA	CreekSide Bank	27.3
3/11/11	OK	First National Bank of Davis	26.5
8/5/11	IL	Bank of Shorewood	25.6
11/5/10	CA	Western Commercial Bank	25.2
5/14/10	MI	New Liberty Bank	25
10/22/10	FL	Progress Bank of Florida	25
11/12/10	GA	Tifton Banking Company	24.6
9/17/10	NJ	ISN Bank	23.9
8/20/10	FL	Independent National Bank	23.2
12/10/10	PA	Earthstar Bank	22.9
1/28/11	WI	Evergreen State Bank	22.8
2/25/11	IL	Valley Community Bank	22.8
7/8/11	CO	Signature Bank	22.3
2/18/11	CA	Charter Oak Bank	21.8
11/5/10	WA	Pierce Commercial Bank	21.3
6/25/10	NM	High Desert State Bank	20.9
1/28/11	OK	The First State Bank	20.1
10/15/10	MO	WestBridge Bank and Trust Company	18.7
7/23/10	MN	Community Security Bank	18.6
4/29/11	FL	Cortez Community Bank	18.6
2/11/11	WI	Badger State Bank	17.5
7/9/10	MD	Bay National Bank	17.4
8/20/10	CA	Butte Community Bank	17.4
5/28/10	CA	Granite Community Bank, NA	17.3
7/29/11	VA	Virginia Business Bank	17.3
7/30/10	FL	Bayside Savings Bank	16.2
10/22/10	FL	First Bank of Jacksonville	16.2
5/20/11	WA	Summit Bank	15.7
9/17/10	OH	Bramble Savings Bank	14.6
11/19/10	PA	Allegiance Bank of North America	14.2
5/6/11	FL	Coastal Bank	13.4
6/4/10	MS	First National Bank	12.6
2/4/11	IL	Community First Bank Chicago	11.7
7/16/10	MI	Mainstreet Savings Bank, FSB	11.4
7/15/11	AZ	Summit Bank	11.3
8/18/11	PA	Public Savings Bank	11
8/20/10	FL	Community National Bank at Bartow	10.3
8/20/10	CA	Sonoma Valley Bank	10.1
2/11/11	CA	Canyon National Bank	10
11/5/10	CA	First Vietnamese American Bank	9.6
10/22/10	GA	The Gordon Bank	9
7/23/10	SC	Williamsburg First National Bank	8.8
8/20/10	CA	Los Padres Bank	8.7
7/22/11	FL	Southshore Community Bank	8.3
7/15/11	FL	First Peoples Bank	7.4
10/28/11	IL	All American Bank	6.5
5/21/10	MN	Pinehurst Bank	6
5/7/10	MN	Access Bank	5.5
7/23/10	KS	Thunder Bank	4.5
4/15/11	MN	Rosemount National Bank	3.6
8/20/10	VA	Imperial Savings and Loan Association	3.5
6/4/10	IL	Arcola Homestead Savings Bank	3.2
7/9/10	MD	Ideal Federal Savings Bank	2.1

As I said earlier, we will have to wait and see what happens next. It has sure been a long … long time since we have seen a large bank failure. Are we overdue for one or many to happen, or are things getting just better?

You decide.