JohnGaltFLA Predictions for 2012
By John Galt
January 1, 2012 – 17:00 ET
I. Geopolitical Predictions
1. The United States constructs a new large military base in Columbia near the Venezuelan border in anticipation of the collapse of the Chavez regime. The new focus on South America is seen as a desire to refocus American foreign policy as the Middle East rejects any further interference from the United States. Columbia welcomes the action as it intertwines the U.S. into their internal conflicts and guarantees economic cooperation as their oil exports increase.
2. Syria’s dictatorship under Assad survives the “Arab Spring” movement in a bloody reign of terror due to other events in the Middle East over taking concerns about Syria, and renewed commitments to protect Syria from the West by Russia and China. Assad shifts strategies and adopts the call for a greater Caliphate and charges into the leadership in some parts of the Arab world by demanding all “good Arabs” reject the poisonous influence of the U.S. and Europe.
3. Turkey invades and occupies the northern 25% of Kurdistan inside of Iraq, to stifle the rebel PKK movement. In retaliation, Kurdish based terrorist attacks increase in Baghdad, Southeastern Turkey, and northern Iran. Iran supports the Turkish invasion and rejects calls from Baghdad to help evict the occupation force. Saudi Arabia offers a blanket support for all Sunni Muslims in Iraq and promises to invade and offer military assistance if they are attacked by Kurdish or Shiite forces inside the nation of Iraq. Meanwhile, during 2012’s latter half, Iranian forces launch open incursions into the Basra region to “support and stop” the slaughter of Shiites by “Western pawns” in Baghdad. Iraq moves closer to a full blown civil war by the end of 2012.
4. The Iranian Nuclear program is dealt a severe set back in 2012 when United States’ forces simultaneously attack 40 facilities, both military and civilian, destroying the majority of their operational ability to produce nuclear fuel. Israel praises the attack and openly thanks the United States from preventing an all out regional war. The attack will probably occur between August and October of 2012. A U.S. Naval vessel is sunk in the Straits of Hormuz in retaliation moving both nations closer to all out war. The American leadership claims that the action was legal per United Nations’ Security Council warnings and edicts issued in May. Iran begins a full blown propaganda campaign which wins the sympathy of the Islamic world by displaying television news programs showing small girls dying from radiation sickness and mutilated bodies where an American missile allegedly missed its target. President Obama denies claims by some inside the United States and overseas that the attack was tied to his flailing political re-election campaign and poll results showing him trailing by over 14% in some surveys.
5. Lloyd’s of London and other insurers declare the entire Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea a war zone and refuse to honor or insure any vessels transporting goods to and from the region. Shipping rates into and crossing through the waters of all Islamic nations skyrocket as protests erupt worldwide. Nigeria considers an oil embargo against the US and Europe for the attack on Iran and calls from the new non-aligned movement.
6. South Africa emerges as the leader of a new non-aligned movement secretly sponsored by Russia to put pressure on the West. Many Islamic nations join up in retaliation for the attack on Iran.
7. The UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, and Bahrain announce a new GCC currency regime based on the price of Brent crude, Omani crude, gold, the Yen, the Yuan, and the Dollar. Russia and China immediately recognize the new currency regime and offer to sell military equipment denominated in the new currency to the Kingdoms in the region.
8. Cambodia and Thailand engage in a renewed month long firefight over the disputed border region. China takes the role as peacekeeper by offering to station troops in the disputed territory with a United Nations role.
9. Hugo Chavez dies of cancer in Venezuela and a heretofore unknown hardline Marxist leaning General comes to power creating a mirror copy of the Cuban communist state.
10. Mexico’s drug violence expands as heavier weapons including small artillery pieces, rocket launchers (artillery type), anti-aircraft missiles and helicopters are deployed against government troops. The nation moves closer to the brink of civil war.
11. King Mohammed VI flees Morocco under Islamist pressure from a new series of protests from the population during what becomes known as the “Second Arab Spring.”
12. Algeria plunges closer to open civil war after several large terrorist attacks and as the Islamist movement is emboldened by the collapse of Morocco’s pro-Western leadership.
13. India agrees to the basing of United States anti-ballistic missile batteries as a preventative measure to insure that a random attack due to the nation of Pakistan becoming more unstable after a failed coup. India agrees to sign an international “no first strike” pact as part of the agreement.
14. Pakistan ceases all military and intelligence cooperation with the United States after another wayward drone attack kills Pakistani soldiers early in 2012.
15. The Taliban strike a deal with the Karzai government in Afghanistan with guarantees of immunity from prosecution for prior atrocities. The United States administration is outraged and accelerates the troop withdrawal during the summer of 2012.
16. Terrorists attack Moscow again before Putin is elected killing dozens. Chechen radicals are accused of the action but this time, the nation of Georgia is accused of assisting the terrorists.
17. Another major earthquake causes nuclear power plant problems in Japan. The plant is successfully shut down but the population flees the northern half of the nation in fear of another Fukushima disaster.
18. The first electronic malfunctions due to excessive radiation readings are discovered in vehicle and other machinery produced using materials from Japan. Planes, cars, trains, and other heavy machinery is shut down until the circuits are checked and deemed safe.
19. Iran successfully launches its first satellite into orbit.
20. Greece falls into civil war in late 2012. Hundreds die in the first month of fighting.
21. Italy experiences a resurgence of communist terrorist attacks in the spring and summer of 2012 as the economy collapses.
22. Portugal withdraws from the European Union along with Greece and Ireland.
23. French Muslims riot in sympathy with Moroccan and Algerian protesters causing the rise of a nationalist, more racist party in France before the election.
24. The United Kingdom seriously considers the secession of Scotland after a petition is submitted before the Queen and Parliament.
25. Russia sees a massive economic collapse but Putin re-introduces Soviet era internal security apparatus crushing all opposition and arresting numerous “foreign agents” accused of fomenting unrest.
26. China’s new premier is a hardliner and begins the construction of an electronic and political virtual wall preventing any data or reports of human rights abuses or internal military action from being reported by Western sources. Some human rights groups accuse the new Chinese communist gulags of slaughtering thousands of dissenters per month by year end. Islamic groups report that entire villages of Uighur’s are slaughtered in a genocidal campaign but the West ignores the reports due to the situation in the Middle East.
28. The new Chinese aircraft carrier pays a “peace visit” to the United States naval port in San Diego, California. Obama meets the new premier on the deck of the carrier to create a “new era of trust and cooperation between the two superpowers.”
28. Canada begins to accept the Yuan on a limited basis for purchases of oil and lumber only.
29. Egypt closes the Suez Canal for one week and militarize the zone in protest against the lack of action to force Israel to the table to discuss a new Palestinian state.
II. U.S. Political Predictions
1. President Barrack Obama wins re-election over Mitt Romney, 49.1% to 40.3%. Independent candidate Ron Paul takes 8.1% of the vote.
2. The Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 3 seats. “Tea Party” independents pick up 4 of the seats against Republican incumbents who voted with liberal tendencies causing a massive shake up in the Republican leadership.
3. Democrats are actually caught engaging in voter fraud in 2 states this election cycle.
4. The Senate remains under Democrat Party control by 1 seat.
5. Republicans lose 1 governor’s race to a Democrat and 1 to a “Tea Party” independent (correction from the radio predictions show due to a typo on my part).
6. Democrats lose 1 governorships to a “Tea Party” independent who defeats both political parties.
7. The Supreme Court upholds the individual mandate portion of the Obamacare law. This action initiates the creation of the third party”Tea Party” movement for the coming elections of 2012.
8. Senator Rand Paul quits the Republican Party along with 5 other members of the House of Representatives declaring themselves independents.
9. The Supreme Court upholds the right of the Department of Homeland Security to monitor United States citizens communications for terrorist threats without a warrant.
10. Nancy Pelosi resigns from the House of Representatives after a scandal emerges which exposes a huge insider trading scandal involving politicians and bankers at a small, formerly unheard of hedge fund.
11. Occupy movement turns on the DNC convention with peaceful protests but hundreds arrested as they attempt to block the streets of Charlotte, North Carolina.
12. Occupy movement goes into a radical direction against the RNC convention with Tampa, Florida becoming the modern version of “Kent State” where protesters are killed and dozens wounded in a conflict with the authorities after one of the radicals opens fire wounding an officer. Thousands are arrested and detained at Raymond James Stadium for processing.
13. California declares the first of its kind restrictions on bloggers engaged in political dissent and commentary with penalties including fines and jail time. Instead of using legislative action, Governor Brown declares a state of emergency after the riots in Tampa and Charlotte until the elections are complete to ensure “the rights of the citizens.”
14. SOPA passes the House and the conference committee with the Senate result in the first restrictions and “legal” definitions delineating the difference between a “journalist” and a “blogger.” In protest, Anonymous takes all of the major news outlets and puts a black, blank screen up on their websites. The first blogger is prosecuted under this law by October of 2012.
15. The new Domestic Homeland Security Force is created by the Congress at the request of the administration to act as a mobile deployment force to blunt terrorist activity inside the borders of the United States. This “force” is buried in a desperation budget resolution act passed in the spring of 2012 as a new Federal Government DHS employment initiative.
III. Homeland Security
1. The first American citizen is arrested under the provisions of the NDAA. The individual arrested is declared a “lone wolf” with alleged sympathetic ties to Al-Qaeda but reports surface that he was a supporter of the new third party movement and “Patriot” groups and had no ties to radical Islam.
2. The first rest area check points are tested where all vehicles are pulled over, commercial or civilian, for inspection by DHS VIPR teams, state department of transportation officials, and local law enforcement. Guns are confiscated for “inspection” as well as cash in excess of $1,000.
3. A U.S. Senator reveals photos of domestic drones taking pictures of Americans sitting in their living room causing an outraged public demanding action against this illegal spying. The story is buried and called “fabricated” by the authorities.
4. Biometric airline tickets are tested by TSA.
5. TSA experiences its largest scandal to date and dozens of officers are arrested (yeah, I know, it’s not a reach).
6. A truck hijacking by an alleged Al-Qaeda operative creates a new series of regulations requiring a DHS officer or certified DHS manager to operate as the official “Homeland Security Supervisor” at all transportation companies operating more than 250 units on the road.
7. Armed DHS troops begin riding on the railways, both pass enter and freight, before the year ends.
8. The first Border Patrol robots are tested on the California border. Armed with Tasers, tear gas grenades, cameras, and other features, the Mexican government protests as a result of their deployment.
9. NHS, or “Neighborhood Homeland Security” elective courses are offered to Juniors and Seniors in high schools. Completion of these courses and “volunteer” work could entitle the participants to collegiate grants and scholarships. Parents are turned in by some children for “anti-American” activities.
10. Michigan deploys the first DHS naval patrol boats in Lake Michigan not under USCG supervision.
IV. Economic Predictions
1. Greece, Ireland, and Portugal withdraw from the European Union creating a two quarter long massive worldwide recession. Hundreds of banks fail in the European Union and United States as a result.
2. Stock update report
Goldman Sachs falls below $50 per share during 2012.
Bank of America is delisted.
Citigroup is split up by the government into several divisions.
Wells Fargo trades below $15 per share during 2012.
J.P. Morgan Chase trades below $20 during 2012.
U.S. Bancorp eventually trades above $60 per share during 2012.
Regions Financial is delisted.
Synovus is delisted.
FXE is delisted at the request of the European Union due to the implied instability created by its trading action.
5 other ETF’s are delisted due to regulatory intervention.
AAPL trades below $200 during 2012.
GOOG trades below $300 during 2012.
AMZN trades between $90 to $140 in 2012.
INTC trades below $10 during 2012.
XLF is delisted due to action by the SEC as well as all double and triple financial ETF’s.
3. The Blackstone Group acquires Merrill Lynch with U.S. Treasury department assistance.
4. Goldman Sachs acquires the retail operations of Bank of America with the toxic assets transferred to a new joint Federal Reserve and U.S. Government agency created during an emergency weekend session in Congress.
5. 10 regional banks are forcibly merged with larger institutions due to solvency concerns.
6. Gold bottoms during trading one day between $1250 to $1320 per ounce and skyrockets above $2000 before the year is over with one day of trading rising over $150 per ounce.
7. Silver bottoms between $22-$25 then stabilizes above $50 per ounce before year end.
8. Copper trades as low as $1.50 before rising back above $3.
9. The ags enter a new bull market with shortages causing beef, soybeans, and wheat prices causing food inflation concerns world wide.
10. WTI crude tops $200 per barrel briefly. Brent tops $235. Natural Gas tops $5, and RBOB Unleaded Gas tops $6 per ounce triggering a price freeze and rationing due to an emergency declaration by President Obama.
11. The DJIA falls below 8,000 but crosses 12,000 close to the election.
12. The S&P 500 falls below 760 but crosses 1280 by year end.
13. The NASDAQ falls below 2,000 but finishes above 2,700 by year end in a massive rally after the election and announcement of Obama’s new “internet” initiative.
14. 2 more airlines go bankrupt. One legacy carrier ceases to exist after the impact of the oil price explosion destroys all leisure travel.
15. The Nikkei 225 falls below 5,000 at some point in 2012.
16. India experiences a prolonged bear market barely holding the 9,000 level but rallying into the year end.
17. Russia ‘restructures’ its stock market blocking foreign investment and speculation.
18. Capital controls cause the British FTSE 100 to close below 3,500 during 2012. Ireland’s stock market falls 90% below its all time highs in the previous decade.
19. Germany and France see a major bear market with a further 30% decline in 2012.
20. Canada rallies above 12,000 based on oil and gold prices but falls below 8,000 early in 2012.
21. Short selling is banned in Q1 in the US on all financial stocks.
22. The 1-3-6 month United States Treasuries trade with negative yields for the first quarter of 2012 for the first time in history.
23. Greek 1 year yields reach 500% before the nation defaults and withdraws from the European Union.
24. The Australian dollar falls back to the 79-80 level.
25. The Dollar Index peaks at 91 to 93, possibly a little higher, in 2012.
26. The Fed, Swiss National Bank, JCB, ECB, Canadian National Bank, and Bank of England agree to form a new permanent committee to meet on monetary policy each quarter starting after the collapse.
V. Weather & Earth Change Predictions
1. Hurricane forecast 2012: 6 Tropical Storms, 6 Hurricanes with one major hurricane. Only two storms impact the United States.
2. 1 earthquake above 8.4 on the Richter Scale somewhere in the world in 2012.
3. Solar Flux skyrockets above 180 as the period of the Solar Maximum accelerates.
4. First U.S. commercial satellite damaged and disabled due to a solar flare.
5. The current drought continues and expands across the United States and Africa.
VI. Miscellaneous Predictions
1. First death due to an electric car failing occurs in the winter of 2012. The battery dies during a blizzard and the driver is found frozen to death after the storm.
2. The Catholic Church is embroiled in an online sex scandal where children are solicited online for recruitment for senior members inside the Church.
3. Canada ceases allowing all non-skilled workers and refugees as the economy craters in early 2012. A select number of highly skilled workers are permitted limited work visas with possible admission to apply for citizenship for the foreseeable future.
4. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fire their head coach and hire Jeff Fisher as the replacement (Yeah, I know, it’s wishcasting).
5. The Tampa Bay Rays will face the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2012 World Series.
6 . The Oscar for Best Picture will be awarded to some obscure British picture that wives force their husbands to watch at gunpoint.
One of the major cable news networks is caught fabricating stories against Ron Paul as a memo is leaked ordering the on air talent to highlight negative stories to diminish his campaign.
Remember, I do this for fun but there is some logic and forethought into these predictions so do with them what one desires, but let the buyer beware.