Tropical Storm Alberto forms off South Carolina Coast

by John Galt
May 20, 2012 07:00 ET

 

In what can only be described with the word “ugh” as in here we go again, the first tropical storm of the season has formed off of the coast of South Carolina. Alberto is the earliest tropical storm to form since 2008 and almost three weeks before the official start of the hurricane season. With that little gem of good news, a reminder that the satellite photos and graphics from the NHC update themselves automatically, model runs will be updated in this thread as need be if this storm decides to threaten the U.S.

 

Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory#3 from the National Hurricane Center:

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 200846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

 

…ALBERTO CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.7N 78.9W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

 

COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————

 

AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-

 

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

 

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

 

====================================================================
Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion #3:
====================================================================

 

000
WTNT41 KNHC 200848
TCDAT1

 

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

 

ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0300 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT. BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO
LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM…DRY AIR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS ALBERTO REMAINING
STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND A
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME
WHEN ALBERTO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

 

ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT INTERACTIONS WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER…A MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE ALBERTO…OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS…TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT
DIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT 20/0900Z 31.7N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 31.4N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 31.2N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 31.6N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 32.8N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 36.2N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0600Z 39.0N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z…DISSIPATED

 

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

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