by John Galt
June 23, 2012 16:15 ET
6/25 10:55 ET: AND NOW, I’m in the Tropical Storm Warning area. But this is a gully washer where rain is just dumping on us non-stop.
6/24 16:45: At least NOW I feel like I’m part of the Hurricane Season with the Tropical Storm Watch extended throughout my area. See details below with the latest advisory packages.
6/24 1500 ET: I’m just sayin’….
6/24 10:59 ET- It would appear the GFS model is winning. The West Coast of Florida and the Panhandle are in for a mess.
The fourth tropical cyclone of the year has formed and it’s only a few hundred miles east of my location so needless to say I will be watching it with great interest. As soon the National Hurricane Center issues its first advisory I will post it along with the discussion below. The satellite pictures will update automatically from NOAA and as the model runs become more defined, the maps will be changed also.
Current Radar:
SWFMUD Models Plot:
RAL Models Plot:
LATEST ADVISORY:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 260838
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
…DEBBY CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS
STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H. A SLOW EASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES
OVER LAND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES…390 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB…29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.
STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIME OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE TODAY…
APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY…3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY…1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL…DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCH RAINS EXPECTED
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.
TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
LATEST DISCUSSION:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 242034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW
TWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL…WHICH HAS BEEN
FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO… NOW
HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN
MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT…I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT…BUT
NOT COMPLETELY…THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER…NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM…WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER WATER…THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER…THE CYCLONE
WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND
THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 28.4N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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