10/5 Non-Farm Payrolls Projection: +219,000 Unemployment Rate of 7.8%


by John Galt
October 5, 2012 05:00 ET


The headline says it all.


I have come up with this calculation because the BLS under the direction of the Obama re-election team, will deliberately overstate the number of temporary holiday related positions created in retail, transportation, wholesale, and automotive by moving forward the normal number of hires for Christmas by one full month. By averaging those individuals who will have part time and full time work from October through December and lowering the projected number of people looking for work, the BLS will provide the following for today’s NFP report:


219,000 jobs created


Unemployment Rate (U-3): 7.8%


With the large number of negative projections of a higher unemployment rate (most estimates have it at 8.2%) I find the expert economists lack of faith in the force disturbing. Reality dictates that because the Obama regime said unemployment will drop below 8% before the election then it shall no matter the statistical gymnastics which must be created and “revised” at a later date.


When this shock hits the markets, look for a strong rally in equity markets today along with a commodity price surge and gold closing above $1800 for the week. No one in their right mind should be short precious metals going into any weekend while the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are so high this winter.


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