Hurricane Sandy: A Historical Storm in the making for the U.S. East Coast

 

by John Galt
October 24, 2012 17:00 ET

 

—- UPDATE 10/25 23:00 ET —

 

Just unbelievable. This storm has all of the makings of one of the most historic storms to hit the U.S. mainland since records have been kept. As of this update, the storm has made some shifts that were unexpected but appears to be reorganizing before it intensifies just before landfall somewhere between the Delmarva region up to Cape Cod. Should the models continue to verify and the system become as strong as a few predict, all bets are off for the amount of wind and wave damage that will hit the target area.

 

Amazingly enough the danger zone is within the most densely populated portion of the United States so I hope everyone is making their final preparations now. The Weather Channel has updated their graphic to demonstrate the danger area:

 

I have updated the two model index summaries below which demonstrate the danger of this storm. All interests from Norfolk to Boston should be watching this storm carefully.

 

——————————–

 

Wow. Who would have imagined that Florida would pretty much escape the wrath of the 2012 Hurricane season but the Atlantic seaboard might face a hybrid Nor’easter-Hurricane type of system by the middle of next week. The pictures and updates from the National Hurricane Center will update automatically. I shall start posting the NHC updates at least twice per day as the storm approaches the region between Cape Hatteras to Maine. All parties in the potential impact area should start reviewing their storm preps immediately.

 

The Weather Channel highlights their warnings about an area of concern for the middle of next week in this graphic:

 

 

The reason for the alert? The European Model indicated a potentially very strong storm at 934 mb hitting the Delmarva region next week:

 

 

Please note the current Tropical Storm watches and warnings for Southeast Florida at this time on 10/24 at 1700 ET.

 

HURRICANE SANDY TRACK - NHC

 

 

RAL & SWFMUD model runs:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory #10 October 24, 2012 1700 ET

 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 260255
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

…CENTER OF SANDY PASSING NEAR ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM NNE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY…FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/H…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
230 MILES…370 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT
ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF
41 MPH…67 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH…78 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 968 MB…28.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAINFALL…SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES…ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS…5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA…1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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