4/11 0530 ET Korea Crisis Update: The Quiet Before the Storm

 

by John Galt
April 11, 2013 05:30 EDT

The eerie quiet in North Korea seems to be an indication, if past patterns are any indication, of a coming storm of action and activity.  Overnight the focus seemed to be the shell game of moving and relocating various launchers around airfields and the raising of launch ramps into the firing position only to have nothing happen. Kim Jong-un appears to have a less than unified front in control of his own military and some analysts are wondering if he is calling the shots or if his actions are to mollify the more aggressive elements within the military hierarchy.

Regardless of what is happening with the U.S. military, it would appear that this situation is somewhat different from previous North Korean episodes and approximately 4 hours ago Guam’s Governor Eddie Balza Calvo issued the following advisory:

 

IMPORTANT: IF Condition RED Is Called: WHAT TO DO

On April 11, 2013, in Press Releases, by Janna Fernandez

Release No. JIC-10
Important TIPS in the Event that RED Condition Is Called
1:45 p.m., Thursday, April 11, 2013
For Immediate Release

The Joint Information Center released four fact sheets over the past three days about what Guamanians can do to prepare for a North Korean emergency. If one does occur:

1.      The military immediately will call the Governor, who then will simultaneously place the island in RED condition.

2.      The Joint Information Center immediately will notify the people of Guam via media partners, email, government alert systems, the alert siren system, the consulate offices, the school systems, and the mayors that an emergency is upon the island and that everyone is to shelter in place.

These are the most important tips of what to do as soon as you are aware of the RED condition:

–          IF YOU ARE AT HOME: Shelter in place. Follow the steps outlined in Fact Sheet 2, including closing and locking all windows and doors, and closing any blinds. Take your family and pets with you to a room without windows or with the fewest windows. Keep a phone with you, preferably a land line. Keep a battery-operated radio with you and stay tuned to official reports from the Joint Information Center.

–          IF YOU ARE AT WORK: Shelter in place at work. Do not leave the office. Do not send away customers or co-workers in your office. Close and lock all windows and doors. Stay as far away from windows as possible. Keep a phone with you, preferably a land line. Keep a battery-operated radio with you and stay tuned to official reports from the JIC.

–          IF YOUR KIDS ARE IN SCHOOL OR DAYCARE: Do not pick them up. School staff & teachers will help students shelter in place. They are safer in school than on the road. Schools know what to do to keep your children safe.

–          IF YOU ARE ON THE ROAD: Pull over. Stay in your car. Keep your body clear from the windows. Keep the radio on, and wait for the ‘all-clear’ from the JIC.

RED condition means the threat level is high. In this case, it may mean North Korea launched a missile. It does not necessarily mean the missile is coming this way. RED condition is a precaution taken because we should not take chances, and we should protect ourselves from the worst. This is why it is so IMPORTANT to pay attention to media partners before, during, and after RED condition.

END

To me that is an interpretation that not only is there the threat of a North Korean missile launch but also a hint that there is a greater potential than normal for a wider conflict to develop. Meanwhile here are the headlines of interest since last night:

In the Shadow of North Korean Threats, South Korea Shrugs

S. Korea to intercept DPRK missile if it strikes territory

Guam ups alert level after N Korea threats

North Korea close to ‘dangerous line’. US warns

North Korea blames South’s leader for Kaesong closure

N. Korea’s expected missile test to dominate Yun-Kerry talks

Delay South Korea travel amid tensions: Taiwan to citizens

N. Korean missile launchpad moved into firing position – report

North Korea to launch nuclear missile ‘within hours’

Two of the most interesting Tweets came from VOA’s Steve Herman last night also:
HERMAN_TWEET2_4-11
That silence is usually a precursor to major action by Pyongyang but we shall see. The second Tweet is much more typical of the regime:
HERMAN_TWEET1_4-11
Stay tuned gang because if Kim Jong-un does in fact lose control of his military leaders, then all bets are off.

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