by John Galt
January 1, 2014 13:00 ET
If you listened to my radio show this past Friday, you already know this story but for those foolish enough not listen via the archives or live, here are my predictions for 2014. Keep in mind I do not think anyone should use these predictions as investment advice and it is not meant to be construed as such, nor do I recommend using this information for anything other than building a fallout shelter with at least 1 foot thick reinforced concrete walls at a minimum of ten feet underground. Grab a cold one or mixed drink of your choice and prepare to down it rapidly should you believe these will all or at least for the most part, come true.
I. GEOPOLITICAL PREDICTIONS
1. Japan will demand advanced US armaments to supplement previous purchases possibly including small tactical nuclear weapons and purchasing some of the United States Navy’s mothballed aircraft carriers. (See BBC News Dec. 17, 2013: Japan boosts military forces to counter China)
2. China will land and base troops and a helicopter squadron on one of the disputed Senkaku Islands to challenge Japan’s claims and to deliberately elevate tensions in the region to intimidate the United States to provoke action or validate their perception of the “Paper Tiger Obama” foreign policy. (View Recent provocations here and here)
3. Saudi Arabia and the GCC nations increase economic, political, and military cooperation with the Communist Chinese government to counter the unstable position of the United States in the region. Further cooperation on a military basis regarding purchases of hardware begins with Russia and Pakistan, possibly even nuclear weapons from the latter. Bahrain openly considers replacing the U.S. base on its territory with a People’s Liberation Naval (Chinese) base with even a small contingent of PLA troops to protect its territory and eliminate the constant badgering by the U.S. over its human rights abuses.
4. By the end of 2014, North Korea successfully conducts an underground test of a functioning fission bases Iranian atomic warhead.
5. If the United States fails to complete its Iranian initiative to Israel’s satisfaction, they will attack and destroy at least 50% of the Iranian program with Saudi Arabian cooperation (not military help). Netenyahu will accelerate the attack schedule if it appears Iran will have a viable system around the March 1, 2014 or March 30, 2014 time period; if the U.S. finds a compelling reason to block or persuade the Israelis from taking action, it would be delayed until on or around the August 24, 2014 weekend.
6. Syria successfully destroys 70% or more of the rebels combat effectiveness by the spring of 2014. Saudi Arabia retaliates against the U.S. and France by recalling their ambassadors from those countries for “consultations” and they do not return to either nation in 2014. Russia presses the United Nations for a “peace and stability force” to prevent any further military conflict within Syria to be led by Chinese, African Union, and Russian troops. The force would be deployed in Syria along the Israeli, Iraqi, Turkish, and Jordanian borders as Syria insists on controlling the Lebanese border to prevent further rebel infiltrations.
7. Israel accepts the multinational force to provide cover for its plan of action (if not already taken) against Iran.
8. The Greek Cypriot government leases a portion of its land to the Russian government to build a Russian Air Force base. Israel objects until Russia agrees to allow Israel to engage in whatever action they view as necessary against Iran.
9. Afghanistan and the United States fail to reach a security agreement. The Taliban control 70% of the country by year end.
10. Libya’s government collapses with civil war erupting across the nation. The flow oil slows to a trickle causing an additional spike in oil prices.
11. Egypt dissolves all military contacts with the U.S. military.
12. Russia increases its military hardware sales and begins re-establishing contacts with the Egyptian military including a visit by one of its missile cruisers to the Port of Alexandria. (See: Egypt & Russia: Cold War Alliances Revived)
13. Russia agrees to sell advanced ABM, anti-aircraft, cruise, and stealth technology weapons to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Ukraine.
14. The Turkish military seizes power in a coup d’etat. Prime Minister Ergodan is arrested for corruption and the Parliament is dissolved with many members imprisoned. The U.S. retaliates by implementing a sanction on arms sales to Turkey. The Turkish military, sick of the constant harassment from Secretary of State Kerry and President Obama abrogates all basing agreements and orders all U.S. military bases closed, troops and equipment removed by the end of the year. NATO does not decide in 2014 to eject Turkey from the alliance. (See: Fears of Fraying U.S.-Turkey Ties)
15. Catalonia votes to secede from Spain and seeks international recognition as an independent country.
17. Cyprus will hold a referendum on its membership in the European Union after the European Central Bank decides to revise the bail-in program to require up to a 50% surrender of assets to repay European banks. Russia promises to offer further financial support to keep the nation afloat should they leave the E.U.
1. Obama is spotted leaving a mosque in 2014 before he is viewed entering or leaving a Christian Church of any denomination.
2. The U.S. Government announces a revised amnesty program for all undocumented aliens who are in the U.S. illegally but can prove that they have been employed and can pay a $1000 per family “procedural” fee. Over 8 million apply for the program in 2014 overwhelming the bureaucracy.
3. Speaker of the House “Crying Game” John Boehner finally has a primary opponent from a Tea Party Republican.
4. New NSA revelations expose vast financial and corporate spying programs, some of which includes industrial espionage, which was often sold to selected donor clients.
5. Republicans pick up 6 Senate seats in the 2014 election with 4 of the members being of Tea Party origins, much to the chagrin of the establishment.
6. 41 out of the 61 House seats gained by the Republicans are Tea Party supporters causing a civil ware with the renomination of John Boehner to remain Speaker in the next session.
7. President Obama nominates Janet Napolitano to the U.S. Supreme Court to fill the vacancy left by Clarence Thomas before the November 2014 elections.
8. President Obama nominates Eric Holder to the U.S. Supreme Court after the election to fill the vacancy left by Scalia’s departure.
9. President Obama nominates Rahm Emmanuel as Attorney General to fill the vacancy left by Holder. Senator Harry Reid holds a 48 hour marathon Senate session from Tuesday night up to midnight the night before Thanksgiving Day to force the nominations through the Senate; this includes an application of the “nuclear option” for Supreme Court nominations. During this session dozens of other Federal judges are approved.
10. Obama’s approval rating sinks to a post-Watergate low of 29% during the pre-election September – October 2014 time period.
1. For 2014, the Dow will close around 16,000 and the S&P 500 around 1750.
2. Gold will crash below $980 then bounce above $2300 per ounce, possibly as high as $3000 per ounce.
3. Silver will crash below $15 per ounce then rebound to above $40 then breaking the old highs with a move above $50 per ounce.
4. Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan will see a major economic contraction in 2014 leading to a second Asian Tiger crisis which spreads worldwide (For example see: Chinese municipal debt nears $3T and Businesses urge swift end to crisis )
5. Oil breaks above $165 (WIT) per bbl in 2014.
6. Janet Yellen’s first action as Fed Chairwoman will be to eliminate the interest paid to banks on deposits left with the Federal Reserve. The Dow will decline over 600 points before the close of business that day on the news.
7. Obama retaliates against the House Republicans for failing to act on the debt ceiling as he desired and refusing to take up a bail out bill for the nation’s health insurers. Secretary of the Treasury Lew is ordered to force the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) to “stand down” until so ordered otherwise. Federal Reserve member banks (core share holders) are made aware of this policy and begin to place huge short and option positions for a massive market decline. The banks then begin paring back on ABS creation, overnight loan facilities, and some interbank lending and credit lines. The Dow crashes over 26% in one day. Obama closes the markets early on the day of the crash before 2 p.m. Eastern Time and declares a three day bank holiday and financial market closure during a nationally televised prime time speech.
8. 4 days after the crisis begins and the banks open with massive restrictions on withdrawals and transfers, Obama and his team with the mainstream media begins to hammer the Republicans and blame them for the entire crisis and stock market crash. Republicans cave and expand the debt ceiling and establish a program for bailing out insurance companies impacted by Obamacare to guarantee their financial health. Included within the bills which are rapidly passed through both the House and Senate is a provision for a newly established GRMA (Government Retirement Management Agency) where individuals will be given 6 months to allow the new agency to control and manage their 401K, IRA, private pension, and Social Security accounts. As a bonus, all applicants who lost money in the crash will have their funds restored to the valuations on the day before the stock market crash. 60% of the American public agrees to these terms within the first ninety days. The Dow rebounds 1100 points on the day the program is signed into law and the ten Wall Street corporations named as account managers are announced.
9. Low for the Dow in 2014 will be around 9,800 and for the S&P 500 close to 1021.
10. Due to the Target computer hacking debacle and numerous other credit card hacks, the Congress passes a new law requiring a Federally managed DNA database for all debit and credit card users to be used for a biometric secure credit card system to be implemented no later than 2017.
11. The new dot com crash results in a joint House-Senate investigative committee where the best and brightest from Silicon Valley are grilled and threatened on national television for weeks along with the heads of the NYSE and NASDAQ.
12. The Financial Crisis of 2014 causes the Federal Reserve under Section 13, Part 13 of the Federal Reserve Act to declare “extraordinary circumstances” and begin purchasing municipal and corporate bonds along with openly buying preferred stocks of selected financial institutions and corporations to help restart the U.S. economy and prevent a total collapse. The ECB and Bank of Japan follow suit.
13. The federal government orders all home purchases under $150,000 to be processed and mortgages issued by the FHA only.
14. Before the Democrats lose power in the Senate and in concert with the House “Establishment” Republicans, a 1% VAT is imposed to pay for the healthcare insurance bailout.
15. Ireland re-enters an economic depression before the year ends.
16. Brazil becomes the first nation to announce the liquidation of all U.S. dollar assets including all Agency and Treasury bonds and bills. The Brazilian government also makes it illegal to purchase any U.S. Government or Agency issued instruments.
17. Unemployment tops 8.5% (U-3) by September 2014.
18. CPI breaks 3.5% on an annualized basis by July 4th due to the new programs by the Fed and U.S. Government.
IV. OTHER FUN PREDICTIONS
1. There will be no “Super Bowl Sunday” in 2014; it will be on a Tuesday or Wednesday due to an early February Nor’easter.
2. The NFL is sued by a liberal front group for promoting violence among children causing severe life changing injuries. California reacts to this action by banning full contact football for all children under age 12.
3. Under the ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act), HHS Secretary Sebelius orders all businesses which serve or employ over 500 people to build new “Transgender” restroom facilities.
4. The “knockout game” goes awry with an assailant killed by a CCW holder. The shooting is caught on video and after being viewed on the internet over 10 million times, minority groups and Democrats demand stricter gun control laws.
5. For the Tropical Season of 2014: 12 named storms consisting of 4 hurricanes with 1 major storm hitting or coming close to the U.S. mainland. There will be 8 tropical storms with only 3 impacting the U.S.
6. Internet hackers crash Healthcare.gov and post all of the personal information of the enrolled on the Internet.
7. The United States government begins a 24 hour news channel which will include a requirement that all cable and satellite systems have a free (basic) access channel so there will be unlimited access to all users. The new service will also broadcast live on the internet and some PBS stations nationwide.
8. The FCC rules just before the election that the internet is a “broadcast medium” and thus subject to licensing and regulatory requirements. This mandate includes any and all “news” sites, or websites engaged in video, audio, or print distribution for commercial purposes.
9. Military recruitment goals fall 30% short of goals due to benefits cuts.
10. Gun show registration regulations are passed requiring all transactions over $100 to be filed with the BATF with completed forms including all information about buyers and sellers. Foreign manufactured ammunition for civilian purchase will be banned in early 2014.
11. Al-Jazeera America shuts down in 2014.
12. The Philadelphia Eagles win their first Super Bowl ever. 12 dead in Philly as the rioters go nuts. I hope this one is wrong on both counts, by the way.
13. To deflect the bad economy and Obamacare fiasco, TPTB encourage and manipulate either the Powerball or MegaMillions lottery to surpass the $1 billion grand prize.
14. Biometric scans will become mandatory for any government or financially related credit transactions.
I hope everyone has a fruitful and profitable 2014. If just 1/2 of those predictions come true however, the 2015 predictions will be from my bunker.