by John Galt
April 23, 2014 22:45 ET
The following is nothing more than an estimation of how the invasion will proceed without determining the official starting date; despite the fact that this author feels it could be within days while the President visits China putting him in an extremely awkward position diplomatically.
The irregular, or infiltration units began the invasion as predicted around April 11th and have proceeded to secure key positions in the Eastern Ukraine as illustrated by this map with the positions estimated per media reports over the last twelve days:
While this map is not the gospel, and I’m sure that our government’s CIA has dug up some old Sovietologists to analyze Putin’s deployment of forces and sleeper cells in the Eastern portion and quite probably in or around Kiev and Ukrainian military bases in the western portion of the country. Thus when the invasion begins, the safe assumption will be for those forces to rise up and begin disrupting Ukrainian military movements and communications as well as facilitating Russian movements into Odessa and Transnistria where Russian forces are already stationed. Based on recent events and evaluations by Western military commentators and experts, the safe assumption is that the occupation of the Eastern Ukraine will take less than 72 hours to complete.
The wild card will be the dual action to be taken not just in the Ukraine, but to occupy the Republic of Georgia before they are provided an opportunity to join NATO.
The airborne assaults (symbolized with the small parachutes on the map) coordinated with fast moving motorized infantry and armor brigades seizing fast swaths of territory and controlling all crossing points on the Dnieper shall begin the occupation of the Eastern Ukraine as illustrated below.
While this might not look like a massive movement of forces, the Russians will take the first day to secure key positions facing Kiev with their armored units, free up their Spetsnaz and special forces units currently in the East to return to normal operations, and achieve air supremacy by using their psychological warfare teams to persuade the Ukrainian Air Force to stay out of the fight and those units that elect to attack the Russians facing the consequences of massive air strikes and surface to surface missile attacks neutralizing their bases.
At the same time the airborne assaults begin, a secondary conflict will begin in Southern Russia with units jumping off from South Ossetia and Abkhazia to surround the capitol city of Tblisi in the Republic of Georgia while securing any potential landing points on the coast. The Georgian Air Force and military will not face the same courtesies as the Ukrainians of the opportunity to surrender or stand down and will be neutralized by air and missile attack in the first hours of the conflict.
The moves will be so rapid as to catch NATO off guard while Russia advises the Turkish government in advance that there will be no aggression directed towards their nation and that their interests will be protected. By destroying any Georgian military units in the first day of combat and surrounding the capitol, odds are a surrender will occur within 48 hours of the invasion so as to reduce the bloodshed.
After securing the primary objectives in the East, the final jump to the Dnieper River and into Transnistria to surround the Ukrainian nation with hostile forces on every border but those that border NATO member nations. The Moldovan government might indeed react and display indignation to the Russian invasion, but it will be lip service only as a full fledged occupation of that nation would only require several more divisions of Russian troops to move West from their new positions and bases to be established in Transnistria and Odessa.
Meanwhile in the Republic of Georgia, the fighting will begin to subside unless the government has a suicide pact to have Tbilisi surrounded and put under a modern siege until they surrender.
DAY 3 and CONCLUSION
The Russian forces will conduct mop up operations in both nations along with a strong diplomatic offensive in the Middle East and Asia via the United Nations by demonstrating the double standard the West used to attack Libya, Syria, and other third world nations in the name of their national interests. This diplomatic assault will include a temporary cessation of energy shipments to Europe to remind those nations of their vulnerabilities and to give them pause before signing on to economic sanctions that will be promoted by the Obama administration. Since the threat of military action by the US and NATO is probably below 1%, Putin will have achieved the majority of his military goals long before any cohesive plan will emerge from the West.
The consolidation period will last from the third day up to three months as ultra-nationalist Ukrainian Neo-Nazi forces along with other extremists will begin to launch terror operations in the Ukraine as well as pro-Georgian forces starting the same type of actions against Russian troops in that nation. The silence that will be imposed via Russia restricting Western reporting and telecommunications in and out of those regions will mitigate the international opinion of how Russia deals with any terrorist activities. Among the first actions to look for as the initial invasion and consolidation periods begin will be the sudden loss of cellular phone service, internet access, and other telecommunications outlets to and from the impacted regions.
By eradicating the threat of Georgia joining NATO and neutralizing the Ukrainian military without occupying the entire country, Putin will have achieved a strategic victory which will cause NATO and the Europeans to reassess their defense policies and diplomatic efforts as the Iron Curtain re-descends over former Soviet Republics. The reaction from the West will be entirely predictable with toothless sanctions and the equally as predictable Russian response. Militarily speaking, barring a shocking development, Russian casualties from this dual invasion will probably number less than 2,000 with opposition casualties upwards of ten to twenty times that amount depending on their willingness to fight against overwhelming odds. The shock of this action will reverberate throughout the world but in reality, if this scenario validates in any way shape or form, Russia could possibly created a wedge in the NATO alliance by exposing American military and political weakness. This not only shifts the balance of power away from the United States and NATO, but also towards Asia, where China will quietly support their former foes to reduce American hegemony around the world.