Without a Nuclear Weapon ever Being Used
by John Galt
June 27, 2015 21:40 ET
I would like to present a fictional prospect that could easily become reality should a major conventional conflict with Russia begin:
The crowd gathered inside the Walmart Supercenter was in utter shock. All of the television sets had been switched to various news stations reporting on the horror of what the President labeled as naked Russian aggression and murder just hours after he succeeded in obtaining a declaration of war on Russia. As the individuals started to hear the horrible casualty counts and witness the disaster in Norfolk where three aircraft carriers were in flames and radiation warning were issued causing mass evacuations in the region, the scope of this defeat began to sink in. None of the viewers ever imagined another Pearl Harbor type event or ever considered that they would see that in their lifetimes as their parents and grandparents endured.
Yet there it was on live television, in 2015, streaming bad news from around the world. Video from Al-Jazeera showing the USS George HW Bush slipping beneath the seas as men struggled to get on lifeboats while multiple reports of another carrier was sunk in the Mediterranean and then one more destroyed while in port at Bellingham, Washington.
Meanwhile, an ecological and national disaster of epic proportions was live on television also, as the Houston ship channel had three super tankers burning along with numerous storage tanks filled with petroleum products and reports that several oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico being destroyed. Russia was keenly aware that this day could come and had a plan to cripple the American military might by changing the naval balance of power the minute the conflict began by using their aging submarine fleet before they lost it in battle.
The United States was now knee deep in World War III yet the American people never dreamed that it would happen so quickly with great losses of men, ships, much less being attacked again on our own shores.
The prototypical United States outcome for any military conflict with the Russians has always been viewed as one of military and economic arrogance yet failed to take into account that modern warfare has evolved since the end of the Cold War and even more so since the start of the second Cold War in 2014. This article is a simple, yet logical speculation as to how the United States under the mindset of the current military and political leadership could indeed lose World War III within weeks to months of its beginning without even one nuclear weapon ever begin fired by either side. I ask my readers to put aside their pro-American bias and remember who is in charge of our military now and keep that in mind as this scenario unfolds; which could be days, weeks or possibly even months from beginning in reality.
I. The Humble Beginnings of a Superpower Conflict
The typical belief of NATO commanders stuck in 1987 groupthink and further convinced by the corrupt puppet in Kiev is that the Russians would launch a general invasion of the entire nation of the Ukraine from every position conceivable, in a sudden stroke to destroy the Kiev regime and eradicate Western influence. That was foreshadowed by the various “invasion maps” posted on the internet to foster the fear and create a reason for US and NATO involvement in 2014:
With the Crimea now occupied, the only part of that map was indeed correct as Russia has consolidated and hardened its position in a completely pro-Russian region and important military concern for the Russian Republic. Meanwhile the rest of the nation saw a severe deterioration in the Eastern Ukraine after a foolish attempt to implement ethnic cleansing and the removal of Russian influence in the Donbas region resulted in a massive Russian covert effort to repel the West and Kiev government from countering the desires of the Russian speaking natives of the Eastern Ukraine.
The resulting civil war and recent devastating defeat of the Ukrainian military in Debaltseve has created doubt in Kiev about the NATO commitment to this conflict and emboldened Russian activists to start a secondary offensive some time this summer or autumn in the region. With NATO member states and American citizens not even close to being unified to counter Russia, despite recent coordinated exercises, the threat of a Russian invasion to support the rebels is reality that the West is not prepared to deal with at this moment. If NATO, especially the United States and United Kingdom fail to come to support their government in Kiev, the Russians will steamroll to a decisive victory using nothing more than the “rebels” to achieve their goals.
However, this time it is different with amateur politicians running the show and only having vague, dated assessments about the post-Soviet leadership now in control in Moscow and that could be the fatal mistake which triggers a 1914 moment just over 100 years later.
II. The Russians Raise the Stakes in 2015
The sanctions against Russia may have indeed harmed the economy but the unifying reaction of the punishment by the West has had a far, more grave, reactionary consequence. Instead of “punishing” Putin’s allies as intended to foster a rebellion, the sanctions have unified the Russian people against the European Union, the United States, and even more so, against the corrupt regime in Kiev.
The deconstruction of the post-Soviet government along has created a re-unification of Russian nationalism not just in Russia per se, but within all Russian speaking regions in those areas surrounding Moscow and the Republic. For the United States and European Union however, the consequences of this aggressive NATO challenge has unified the old “non-aligned” nations against the West in a manner not seen since the 1970’s.
As Russia continues to build up troops in the Kaliningrad region near the Baltic’s and pursue dangerous intercepts while testing NATO member nation’s air defenses, especially near American air space, the reality of a dangerous accident occurring between Russian and NATO military units increase. The lack of belief in the resolve of the Obama administration however, provides Putin with the confidence to continue executing his long term plan to destroy the current Kiev government and dissect the Ukrainian nation into two separate states with one being absorbed as Crimea was.
III. President Obama Provides Bluster, Bravado and Danger
The rhetorical furor from the Obama regime against Russia has been terrifying in recent months even if ignored by the American government controlled mainstream media (deliberately I might add) although not dismissed by the Russian government controlled media. The most recent example happened this past weekend when Obama’s pet globalist, Samantha Power, unleashed an unbelievable tirade against Moscow while visiting Ukraine (via the Voice Of America):
Obviously this speech (among others), along with a probable extension of EU sanctions against Russia, and the announcement today that we may send a squadron of F-22’s to Europe to support our NATO allies only increases the danger of a mistake far worse than anything we endured during the Cold War. Obama has this unfortunate megalomaniac tendency to wish to be remembered as the greatest US President ever, regardless of American military casualties or suffering, while blaming everyone else, especially the military, when his policies fail to succeed. Thus the danger of a non-military political hack as the de facto head of NATO’s political wing leading our country and Europe into disaster.
IV. The American People are War Weary and Do Not Hate Russia
The truth is hard to swallow and the title above is an undeniable fact. Despite the actions of the Russian military in the Crimea and Donbas region of Ukraine, the American people could care less. We are exhausted, tired of conflict for profit or nation building, and have no nationalistic fervor to defend against or attack Russia in the name of a nation that 80% or more of our citizens could not identify on a map. Since the war was started with a phony revolution apparently funded by Obama’s friend, billionaire George Soros, the sense of urgency to complete the genocide or removal of the Russian influence in Ukraine is now palpable.
Our military grunts, the ground soldiers, sailors, and airmen, along with the citizenry are war weary, exhausted, and tired of fighting wars with no defined enemy or ultimate path to victory. Thus Obama has to find a way to turn the American people along with Europe into a mobilized force of anger so he can exploit the power of this nation with the inspiration he copies from Roosevelt in 1941. The problem is that the strategic and tactical miscalculations by this administration in thinking that a conventional conflict would last for years; possibly providing justification to extend his administration far beyond his current term limitation via a declaration of national emergency.
V. The Shortest World War in History
The United States military establishment, now primarily loyalists to President Obama, would have everyone believe that the United States is still capable of a multi-front conventional war in several geographic locations around the world simultaneously. The reality is that this is pure fiction, intended to keep minor nutcases like North Korea in check and the terrorists terrified off a potential full scale retaliation by US forces. Sadly, the actions of the Saudi sponsored ISIS terrorist organization has dispelled this myth and our enemies, especially China and Russia are fully aware of this fact.
In reality, I fear the war would last no more than 30 to 60 days tops. The conflict would probably evolve something along these lines:
1. Russia begins a full scale invasion of the Eastern Ukraine in force using 75,000-100,000 men. The Russian Air Force would immediately neutralize all Ukrainian Air Forces in the first hours of the conflict using coordinated airstrikes with short range missile attacks destroying most of their air power on the ground. With the establishment of air superiority, bombing missions along with coordinated missile strikes would eradicate Ukrainian artillery and assembly positions, as well as any functioning command and control systems throughout the nation. Within a day, the Russians would have full control of Kharkiv by surrounding it, seize positions with coordinated airborne assaults on key bridges along the Dnieper River, and establish a land bridge from Crimea to Odessa with a marine landing and armored thrust deep into Ukrainian territory before reinforcements could be moved into position.
Any Ukrainian naval units which declare neutrality or surrender will be spared, while the remainder destroyed before the first day of battle is over. Within a week, the majority of Southern and Eastern Ukraine will effective be under Russian control as the Kiev government would teeter on collapse.
2. The United States under Obama’s orders will foolishly attempt to declare a naval blockade of Russian forces in the Black Sea and the Baltic. Russia will immediately appeal to the United Nations that this is an act of war and warn that they will view this is a de facto declaration of war by the United States on Russia. Inevitably a Russian patrol boat or frigate will test our resolve and unfortunately an American naval vessel will be given permission to engage the Russian ship. In the end, the Russian naval vessel will be sunk and in retaliation, the American ship will be sunk also, providing Obama with his Gulf of Tonkin incident to request and get a declaration of war against Russia.
3. The U.S. media will whip up a firestorm of non-stop nationalistic fervor and the Congress will almost unanimously approve a declaration of war giving Obama full powers to declare a national emergency and prepare the homeland for war. Before the ink is dry on the declaration, Russia unleashes their submarine forces on the US Navy and American port facilities leaving our economic infrastructure damaged and the world fearful of sending commercial shipping into our ports. The scenario of most if not all of our aircraft carriers being attacked and destroyed is not far fetched as several recent war game scenarios and articles have illustrated recently.
4. The inability to provide a constant stream of seaborne supplies to heavy armor forces in Eastern Europe now puts Poland, the Baltic States, and Mediterranean allies on the front lines, subject to aerial and missile bombardment at will from Russian naval vessels and air forces. It is quite doubtful that these NATO allies, especially countries like France, Germany, and Italy would last more than a week after they suffered casualties and damage on their own territory. The United Kingdom would effectively be neutralized after its port cities were deluged with cruise missile attacks destroying ports of naval importance and commerce and preventing their forces from deploying effectively from the home island. This lack of supplies will leave our forces essentially naked to attack by overwhelming forces and the minute that the American people were notified of a full blown selective service activation and draft for all men and women ages 18-49 will shock the public back into reality. Sadly, the worst part will be the initially casualties north of 50,000 in the first week without a single nuclear weapon being used.
5. As the casualties on both sides rise, along with more damage to the infrastructure of NATO nations including on the homeland of the United States and Canada, the threat and pressure from the US military will grow to permit the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the European theater. Poland will object strongly as would the Baltic nations and Finland, but President Obama in his inexperienced bravado might be convince to use limited nuclear strikes to disable and destroy key Russian military infrastructure. It is at this point, probably 3-5 weeks into the conflict that the strategic situation tilts heavily against the United States and NATO.
6. The Chinese are going to be fully invested in stopping this conflict the minute it begins, or so it would appear. They understand the practicality of allowing the Russian military to give the United States forces a bloody nose and remove our effectiveness from the world stage yet also face the consequences of a diminished trading partner unable to sustain the Chinese economy by selling trinkets and trash to the American consumer. As the war expands with commercial shipping endangered worldwide and absolutely zero commercial air traffic allowed to move across American and Canadian airspace, the costs to the Chinese government will accelerate forcing them to either choose sides or act as a neutral negotiator to end the conflict.
I would look for the Chinese to initially pursue a United Nations sponsored peace initiative which by design would be a slow, tedious process with bureaucratic maneuvering and discussions objected to and motions vetoed by all sides as the military situation on the ground continues to unfold. Great pressure would be brought against the warring powers by the financial powers of the world, namely Japan, the Southeast Asian countries, India, and Western Europe to find common ground and declare a ceasefire as soon as possible. None of this pressure will work initially and that will being the imposition of peace via a Chinese ultimatum.
How is this possible during an asymmetric conflict where the US financial structure is attacked electronically while military and economic targets are physically destroyed worldwide?
The Chinese intelligence services are excellent, on par with those of Russia, the United Kingdom, Israel, and of course the United States. The instant that the United States military attempts to influence the Obama administration to unleash our nuclear forces I would look for the Chinese to do the following to impose a ceasefire:
– Declare all US and Canadian territorial waters a conflict zone and order all Chinese shipping out of the region. This ban would continue until hostilities cease and a UN peacekeeping force made up of neutral forces allowed to create a barrier between NATO and Russian forces.
– Initiation of a full trade embargo against the United States.
– Freeze all assets of American corporations and citizens in China with the threat to nationalize all corporations if the United States insists on continuing the conflict.
– Bar all United States naval vessels from traversing within 200 miles of Chinese territory due to the threat of the conflict impacting domestic and regional commerce.
– Agree to purchase or lease bases on the Kurile Islands north of Japan to prevent and diminish the spread of the conflict between Russia and the U.S. into Japanese territory(this will probably happen in 2016 anyways even if there is no great conflict).
– Bar all U.S. citizens from entering or visiting China until further notice.
– Liquidate all US Treasury holdings and dollar denominated investments immediately upon the U.S. refusal to accept a ceasefire.
Lastly, the big stick which everyone knows China has and American citizens should fear if President Obama’s arrogance supersedes any logical or intelligent thought process:
– Announce that the first use of nuclear weapons by any side will result in China aligning with the target nation and possibly retaliating for the use of nuclear weapons as a crime against civilization which must be contained by destroying the offending nation.
The economic damage of the threats, much less imposition of a trade embargo would bring not only our consumer based economy to an immediate halt, but the ability to produce war material will end within 60 days of such a declaration because preformed items, semiconductors, and raw materials from Asia are critical to our war machine. We no longer have the capability to develop or produce such products in a short duration thus the economic ability to wage war would end within 60 days of the initiation of the conflict and of course, any international trading sanctions against America.
The end result might appear to be a humiliating defeat for the United States and would be interpreted as such by the American people. However, the blow back from this conflict would be far worse as during such a conflict as Russian sponsored saboteur activity along with Islamist terrorists would add to the domestic damage and losses surpassing the consequences of the direct attacks on our homeland by the Russian military. In the end, it might provide the necessary cover for the “powers that be” to initiate what they deem as the necessary changes to our economic and political structure to enable the country to survive, albeit with an economy some 40% (or worse) smaller than current GDP estimates.
The anger in our society would be expressed not only by our military who will feel they were needlessly sacrificed for the Kiev government and Obama’s political legacy; it will spill out into the streets causing the absolute worse case scenario of martial law and suspension of the Constitution to be initiated for purposes of ‘domestic stability’ or other such nonsense. While many of my readers might view this as a “woo-woo scenario” I wish to present the words of retired United States General Tommy Franks from his Cigar Aficionado interview for the Nov/Dec 2003 print edition:
That goes to step number two, which is that the western world, the free world, loses what it cherishes most, and that is freedom and liberty we’ve seen for a couple of hundred years in this grand experiment that we call democracy. Now, in a practical sense, what does that mean? It means the potential of a weapon of mass destruction and a terrorist, massive casualty-producing event somewhere in the western world—it may be in the United States of America—that causes our population to question our own Constitution and to begin to militarize our country in order to avoid a repeat of another mass-casualty-producing event. Which, in fact, then begins to potentially unravel the fabric of our Constitution.
The terrifying facts are simple; the possibility that America has a megalomaniac as President of the United States along with economic forces wishing to eradicate the Constitution to monopolize our nation’s people and resources could result in a World War with Russia which either destroys the freedoms of our nation or worse, a nuclear exchange killing more than half of our population.
Let us pray that sanity is restored inside the beltway and the American people should never have to endure such a scenario of suffering and deprivation in our lifetimes.