by John Galt
September 30, 2015 21:15 ET
To say this was unforeseen is a lie. Back on September 10th, I warned about the upcoming conflict with the Russians and Syrian rebels/terrorist groups:
Today, one of my predictions came true (via the UK Telegraph today):
Russian generals are not regular visitors to the US Embassy in Baghdad. Once, this newly built complex near the Tigris was the de facto seat of power in Iraq – and a place where decisions affecting Syria were often taken as well.
On Wednesday, US diplomats in Baghdad were reduced to the role of meekly receiving a message. Russian air strikes on targets across Syria would commence in one hour, their visitor told them. For the safety of all concerned, it would be better if the US Air Force stayed out of the way and suspended its own bombing campaign in Syria.
And what did I predict (from the September 10th article linked above):
Based on the reports thus far, it would appear that the Russians are reinforcing three key areas in Syria around Damascus, Latakia, and their naval base in Tartus. What I can also foresee is a joint Russia-Syrian ‘no fly zone’ being imposed over the western third of the nation as a ground offensive designed to destroy the rebels in Assad’s home areas and drive ISIS and whatever other forces are left into Turkey, Jordan, and back into Iraq. Per the crude map I have drawn up below, the five point offensive will probably begin in earnest over the winter as the logistics situation becomes dire due to the addition of Russian air support to the operation.
As you can see from today’s events, my warnings were 100% on the mark. The Russians have not extended the so-called no-fly zone to the Damascus region yet but in about 3-5 days, look for that to happen in coordination with the Israeli military.
I present for my readers a plethora of videos and stills from numerous sources that have Tweeted or posted information in the past 18 hours.
Unconfirmed Footage – Russian Air Force Aircraft attacking Al-Lataminah @ Northern Homs Countryside
Russian aviation criminal maneuvers in the jungle atmosphere of easy Brive Hama western Russia – Syria
Missile from a Russian plane on the city of Hama Al-Lataminah Brive did not explode 30 92 015
One target of the rally headquarters pride raids Russian aviation 30 \ 09 \ 2015
Air strikes against targets of the terrorist group LIH
Paneling moment the city targeting Balsourakh stereochemistry of the Russian Aviation 30 92 015
Paneling instant access to the place of the fall of the spatial rockets 30 92 015
UN: Lavrov meets Kerry after addressing UN Security Council
Russian Strike Locations per BBC report via ISW:
From the Twitter account of Joseph Dempsey:
Joseph Dempsey @JosephHDempsey 2:41 PM – 30 Sep 2015
First #Russia airstrikes in #Syria suggest use of ‘dumb’ bombs (as seen at #Latakia ) not Precision Guided Munitions
Joseph Dempsey @JosephHDempsey 4:37 PM – 30 Sep 2015
First #Russia airstrikes in #Syria also suggest HE Fragmentation bomb (OFAB) use ≠ cluster bomb as some ppl speculate
And from the account of Naman Tarcha on Twitter:
Naman Tarcha@NamanTarcha 11:56 AM – 30 Sep 2015
#Siria #Terrorismo Terrorista Iyad Deek capo Milizie libero ucciso nei Raid aerei #Russia Nord #Homs
Translated from Italian by Bing:
#Siria #Terrorismo Deek Militia leader Iyad Terrorist free killed in airstrikes #Russia North #Homs
There will probably be a lot more tomorrow but right now the U.S. overreaction was to be expected. The Russians have no intention of going deeper into Syria until they clear out their immediate area of operations to ensure the safety of their pilots. For the next 30 days, the “rebels” can expect 24/7 bombardment from helicopters, missile batteries, and the Russian Air Force until they are destroyed or forced to withdraw.