Spainaggedon Election: Pro-EU Mainstream Parties INCREASE Seats but no Clear Majority

by John Galt
June 26, 2016 08:30 ET

SPAINAGGEDON_VOTEjgfla

Sometimes the bull gets you, sometimes you get to sprinkle some A-1 Steak Sauce on him when he’s medium rare.

Today we find out if Spanish voters are inspired by the Brexit vote to take a strong stand against the European Union’s insane bankster inspired austerity programs which are running in parallel to the banking bailout which has done nothing to help the average Spanish citizen to improve their standard of living in over a decade.

Sound familiar?

I shall try to keep the updates moving throughout the day and as the polls close will post the results on this thread. In the 2015 election the results looked like this (via The Economist):

SPANISH_ELECTIONS_2015_jgfla

And if anyone thinks people are happy about the results in 2015, I would suggest thinking otherwise as their economy is stagnant and the PP wed to corruption and banks not to the citizen’s best interests.

The Spanish stock market did not like the Brexit results with a 12% drop on Friday:

SPAIN_IBEX35_FRI062416jgfla

If the results end up with the Podemos Party in second place then look for another stressful day in Spanish equities as the uncertainty will expand exponentially.

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16:40 ET –

It would appear that the mainstream political elites have won a minor victory today. This might stabilize European markets considerably but it depends on what kind of deal could be offered to the PSOE. With 85% of the vote in, we know one thing; Spain is not ready to hand over the reigns of power to a far left coalition nor the Marxist extremes. Score one victory for Brussels.

062616_SPANISH_ELECTIONS_PIC4jgfla

15:45 ET –

Looks like the exit polls may have it wrong again (from El Pais and El Confidencial):

062616_SPANISH_ELECTIONS_PIC3jgfla

EL PAIS journalist Berna González: “It’s hard to believe this dance of numbers: if the vote count consolidates, then the two-party system is winning back ground from the new parties!”

If this holds the Brexit panic may be temporarily stemmed inside the EU. However the financial fallout will not.

15:30 ET –

From El Pais:

With 29.84% of the vote counted: PP (131), PSOE (92), Podemos (70), Ciudadanos (26)

15:15 ET –

From El Confidencial:

The scrutiny has already begun. With 8.85% of the votes counted, the Congress of Deputies would read:
– PP: 133 deputies.
– PSOE: 94 deputies.
– United We Can: 40 deputies.
– Citizens: 19 deputies.

If this holds, which it will not as votes are tabulated, the PP has to cut a deal with the PSOE or they will have another election within 6 months. Stay tuned, it’s getting interesting.

14:50 ET –

Interesting commentary from EL PAÍS as this would fit the establishment narrative we are about to see world wide. In the European countries on the verge of leaving the EU, many of the Social Democrat parties will throw in with the conservatives to salvage their nation and what fading political influence they have. This will expand to the U.S. where we will see closer cooperation between Democrats and Republicans should Trump win the White House.

The PSOE (Social Democrats/Socialists) could recover some of the power they lost in this election by forming a coalition government with the PP (Popular Party/Conservatives) and that would block the far-left Podemos Party from having any influence on the government. It would not stop them from becoming the majority opposition party however and indeed could lead to the eventually eradication or diminishing of the PSOE into historical irrelevance. Thus why I think this speculation has some legs:

EL PAÍS political reporter Javier Casqueiro: “Tonight, Rajoy [of the PP] is going to offer the PSOE a pact.”

14:20 ET –

If the exit polls are even close to correct, the far-left Podemos picks up 12+ seats but not enough to form a governing coalition without the PSOE (Socialist Party).

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14: 10 ET –

From El Pais:

An exit poll by GAD3 for Abc and Cope suggests the PP will win the election with 30.4% of the vote, representing 121 to 124 seats. Unidos Podemos gets 24.8% and 87 to 89 seats. The Socialists slide to 21.8% for 84 to 86 seats, while Ciudadanos obtains 13.2% and 29 to 32 seats.

An exit poll by Sigma Dos for public broadcasters offers the following outcome: Popular Party (PP) – 117-121 seats, Unidos Podemos – 91-95 seats, Socialist Party (PSOE) – 81-85 seats, Ciudadanos – 26-30 seats.

Of course we all know how inaccurate polling has been lately, so your mileage may vary.

12: 50 ET –

From El Móns in Catalonia, Spain:

Participation has been 46.36%, while 20-D arrived at 56.62%.These data show the number of lowest turnout in elections in Catalonia in Spain.

This is potentially bad news for Podemos as they inferred that they would support a referendum for independence for Catalonia should they seize power.

12:30 ET –

From El Pais:

With practically all voting data in, from 97.28% of voting stations, voter turnout at 6pm is 51.19%, a serious drop compared to December elections.

This does not bode well for any party unless one of the groups managed to win the intensity battle. If the establishment fails to get their voters out, Podemos could enjoy a huge upset. However if the leftists could not persuade their voters to arrive in large numbers either, the stalemate of Spanish politics and slow, deflationary rot in their economy will continue.

12:10 ET –

Only in Spain and San Francisco. A man dressed like a sperm is preparing to vote:

Photo via Reuters/Juan Medina

Photo via Reuters/Juan Medina

12:05 ET –

From El Pais:

Participation at 6pm is at 50.67%, according to early data coming in from polling stations (3.45% of the total so far). This number will change, but for now turnout is 7.55 points below that seen at the same time at the December 20 polls, which was 58.22%

08:50 ET –

This is not good for stability in Spain should this bear out. With such a low turnout it means voter apathy is worse than even American attitudes towards politicians. This is however, somewhat desired if looking at it from the ECB/Merkel point of view.

From El Pais:

With 99.19% of polling stations accounted for, voter turnout is 36.86%, just 0.05 percentage points down on the December 2015 polls

08:30 ET –

From El Pais:

More turnout data: With 73.28% of the polling stations accounted for, participation is at 36.68%, compared to 36.91% at 2pm in December vote

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