by John Galt
July 19, 2016 20:45 ET
Okay, I’m joking and right about now the 5 Clintonistas that read my blog on a daily basis are probably blathering about what kind of hate I’m about to spew about their witch, er, candidate. Unfortunately, for them, this is an observation on the gift that keeps on giving: the manipulated fraudulent Obama economy. After eight years of manufactured and at best fictional economic data the Clinton campaign should be worried about what is about to hit. Besides, as she says above, what difference does it make?
The answer: A LOT.
Tonight, Donald J. Trump officially became the nominee for the Republican Party for President of the United States. It just so happens the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all time high also.
Happy days are here again because if the market is rallying in September and October, the incumbent party wins, right?
And the chart year to date should indicate a Democrat wipe out of the Republicans across the board:
The market has been drifting in and out of a long consolidation period for several months then after the Brexit shock, the Central banksters all agreed to buy more stocks plus invest in each other’s bank stocks to pump the markets to all time highs on all time low relative volume. Bullish right?
Not so much.
Although the markets can remain irrational and outside of technical norms more than any one of us can possibly remain liquid, the rally to all time highs is WAY too early to help the Hildabeast at this point in time and might indicate what many major financial institutions and investors smell coming in the early autumn. To reflect on how risky this market has become for Hillary Clinton’s election prospects, let’s take a quick visit down memory lane to the coronation of Senator John McCain and the DJIA of that era.
The Bear Stearns collapse had a major impact on the DJIA in the first quarter of 2008 and the markets had a difficult time finding any footing:
Unfortunately for McCain, the markets topped in May of 2008 which was followed by a brief downward consolidation then cratering after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were put into conservatorship. The meddling of the Fed and other central banks in the markets provided a little stability in the late summer but we all now what happened after that:
Shortly after the Republican convention the markets started a historic crash from which America has yet to recover completely. It might be true that the Dow made new highs today, but on less than 1/3rd of the volume of that era and what should scare the Democrats even more is that history is against them in the months ahead:
- The longest period of time in modern market history without a substantial market correction (10-12% plus) or even mini-Bear market (20%).
- The end of the credit cycle is now upon us with no plan for the newly indebted and delinquent to become whole or even restructure their debts be they students, sub-prime auto loans, or yes, again, sub-prime mortgages which are indicating signs of rapid deterioration in credit quality and delinquency. Did I mention we are in the peak of another housing bubble yet?
- Obama doesn’t care. His legacy is secure. If it crashes he can blame both of the candidates for “scaring” America’s economy into dark times again.
- Overseas events in Turkey, Italy, the European Union, and Asia are spiraling out of control. Markets can not handle any major shocks as the Brexit vote demonstrated.
Hillary had best pray that her friends at Goldman can keep this market above 18,500 until November or her electoral prospects may dim rapidly indeed. If the Dow is below 16,500 or possibly even 17,000, she is probably doomed as are the Democratic Party prospects for picking up seats in the House and Senate.