TS Hermine: 09.03 1300 – Tropical Storm Warnings From Long Island to Boston

by John Galt
August 28, 2016 16:55 ET

09.02.16 – 18:30 ET –

Just ugh.

090216_HERMINE_RADAR_1800ETjgfla

09.02.16 – 17:00 ET –

Boy oh boy oh boy. If this recent model run of the ECMWF (Euro) confirms, life is going to be VERY interesting in NJ and New York City:

HURRICANE_HERMINE_EURO_MODEL_SEPT05jgfla

Tropical Storm Warnings have now been extended up to Sandy Hook, NJ with watches continuing for New York City and Long Island. So far the forecast does not anticipate the storm turning back into NJ/NY but the model runs from 1 week ago did anticipate a turn west so everyone should watch this storm and prepare as it is expected to become a hurricane again by Sunday or Monday at the latest.

09.02.16 – 05:00 ET –

Thankfully it wasn’t as bad as the drama queens at The Weather Channel tried to make it out to be and if anything, I’m more worried about the damage to the oyster and scallop beds up in the Big Bend area more than anything else. Common sense will keep most humans out of harms way (whoops, that’s in short supply). Latest NHC advisory is below and let’s see if she can get back out to sea or stays over land as that impacts the track dramatically.

09.01.16 – 20:25 ET –

Boy-That-Escalated-Quickly-Anchorman

Wow. This sucker is intensifying quickly. Winds up to 80 mph with gusts up to 100 mph. Buckle up there folks in the panhandle, this is going to be long night. More at 0500 if I have internet which has been spotty lately due to trees falling around here. Latest GIF from the NHC says it all:

HERMINE_LATEST_0901

09.01.16 – 16:00 ET –

Hermine has been upgraded to a Hurricane.

Tropical Storm warnings have been extended southwards into my neck of the woods down to Englewood, Fl.

As of this update things are quite calm south of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge but in about 4 hours at the maximum, we’ll see the whipping of the major storms around the eye and into our area overnight.

If there are no updates after 8 p.m. ET, it means my internet is gone, again.

*****************************

08.31.16 – 17:00 ET –

Now she’s named and starting to move to the NNE towards the Florida Panhandle. Read the update at the bottom half of the page.

**************************************

08.30.16 – 20:30 ET

No upgrade as this storm is still named “Hot Mess #9″….

************************************

08.30.16 – 05:00 ET

Just a quick note, look for an upgrade to a Tropical Storm at the 1100 or 1700 update today. This storm is definitely intensifying and appears to be getting ready to start turning NW, then N which means my weather will deteriorate quickly tomorrow.

********************************

Much to my chagrin, the National Hurricane Center’s recon aircraft did find a closed Low Level Circulation (LLC) and as a result just declared Invest 99L to now have become Tropical Depression 9 just south of Key West.

TD9_MAPjgfla

Ugh.

Because more rain is NOT what we need on the West Coast of Florida.

Here is the usual package and as the storm develops, I shall update as needed. Thankfully it does not appear to have the capacity to reach hurricane strength.

Then again, it is August and all bets are off once this storm shakes its Duval Street hangover off as it departs Key West.

 

 

 

 

 

LATEST NHC ADVISORY

===============================

000
WTNT34 KNHC 052356
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
800 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016

...HERMINE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 70.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
Harbor
* New Haven to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 70.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9
mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
overnight, followed by a slow and erratic motion on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander
slowly offshore of the New England coast into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  A weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.  Sustained winds of 32 mph (52 km/h) with gusts of
48 mph (78 km/h) have been observed in the last couple of hours at
Nantucket, Massachusetts.

The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over
portions of the warning area tonight and Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
Harbor...1 to 2 feet

RAINFALL:  Hermine will produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2
inches across eastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the
offshore islands, through Wednesday.

SURF:  Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east
coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England.  These waves
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions, and significant beach erosion.  Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Brown
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