Hurricane Matthew: 10.9 05:00 ET – FINAL UPDATE – Post-Tropical Cyclone is FINALLY moving Out to Sea

by John Galt
September 29, 2016 16:25 ET

10.09.16 – 07:45 ET – UPDATE

It has been a while since we’ve had a storm which has cause this much of a problem for this many people and all I have to say is GOOD RIDDANCE. This will be the final update as it is now a post-tropical or hybrid storm and moving out to sea.

10.08.16 – 07:15 ET – UPDATE

Newest advisory is below. The storm has weakened but the tornado risk increased as WECT just reported:

This will be the ongoing threat today north and northwest of the hurricane as it appears it will make a landfall somewhere between Hilton Head, SC and Charleston, SC before heading up to the North Carolina coast. Radar a few minutes confirms this:

1008_matthew_scradar

10.07.16 – 19:15 ET – UPDATE

First pictures/videos coming out of Daytona Beach, St. Augustine, and up to Jacksonville region from the hit they took today:

10.07.16 – 17:00 ET – UPDATE

The storm provided a nice beating on all of the counties from Volusia to the Georgia border and initial damage reports reflect massive damage to the beaches, especially Daytona. As news comes in I shall try to provide photos, links, etc. Meanwhile the storm has weakened and is heading due north at 12 mph so now it is Georgia and South Carolina’s turn for the fun. Good luck up there gang!

10.07.16 – 05:00 ET – UPDATE

The newest advisory from the NHC is below and believe it or not all the hype and evacuations may have been for nothing. The storm right now has taken a more northern turn to the NNW and may not make landfall at all even though Cape Canaveral and Patrick AFB are reporting hurricane force gusts at this time. Stay tuned as the storm could suddenly shift west but it appears unlikely now.

10.06.16 – 19:55 ET – UPDATE

Sad news as wire reports now have the death toll for Haiti at 283 and climbing.

8 p.m. ET NHC update below. The good news is that winds are down to 130 mph but that is still a powerful Category 4 storm as the hurricane force wind field has expanded.

FYI, I have also added the following to track the storm live on TV and Ham Radio:

Television and Amateur Radio Links for Broadcasts in the Path of Hurricane Matthew (Video)

And add this to the “Ruh-Roh” file, courtesy of Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits via Twitter:

 

10.06.16 – 19:25 ET – UPDATE –

Last Vortex message from the Recon confirms eyewall is now closed and the pressure steady at 939 mb. Winds still 121 kts or 140 mph:

100616_hurricane_matthew_vortex1809etjgfla

10.06.2016 – 17:00 ET UPDATE –

This very dangerous storm is more impressive with each moment. The model confirmation confirms but Matthew has slowed slightly to 13 mph moving at 320 degrees (NW) with 140 mph winds per the just released 5 pm NHC update (below). It would also appear per the infrared satellite presentation that Matt is getting his **** together as the skull presentation is apparently reforming just like it did before it slammed Haiti:

100616_1607_noaa_matthew_infraredjgfla

I will return shortly with more updates as I just heard on the radio that some residents outside of and north of Palm Beach did NOT evacuate and instead decided that it was “only going to be a tropical storm” set up. God help them.

10.06.2016 – 05:00 ET UPDATE –

Folks, if you are anywhere within 5 miles of the coastline from West Palm Beach up to the Florida border, I would strongly advise you get the hell out of there now. The damage this storm will cause will be massive if it skirts the coast as projected and will be the first time in modern history that a category 4 hurricane hits this part of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolina coasts in October.

The storm presentation is classic. The eyewall has begun to finish its reformation and has the same appearance as it did before it wiped out Western Haiti. The intensification process continues with the pressure dropping 20 mb to 944 mb overnight and winds now starting to catch up with sustained winds now of 125 mph. I fear that when it hits the Gulf Stream it will be like matches hitting gasoline and the winds will easily surge past 135 mph (Category 4) or higher before getting to the West Palm Beach, FL area.

I repeat, if you live near the coast GET OUT. Storm surge now is projected at 10-15 feet but 20 feet is possible in some locations, especially on the northern side of the storm and if the storm impacts your area during high tide.

Here is the GOES satellite presentation just after 04:30 ET:

100616_hurricane_matthew_goes

10.05.2016 – 20:00 ET UPDATE –

FYI, this thread will remain pinned at the top until the threat to the United States has passed….

The earlier GFS model run has everyone terrified of this storm and rightfully so (via TropicalTidbits):

gfs_100516_late

Here is a short term High-Resolution model which local forecasters use for the 12-15 hour period which appears to be quite accurate. Just ugh.

Another view:

Winds have temporarily dropped to 115 mph and pressure risen to 962 mb but this is only the start of a re-organization of the storm and intensification period which many mets anticipate overnight. What is scary is that this is currently projected not as a Category 3, but the first Category 4 to hit the east coast of Florida with the potential to move towards Miami-Dade still open in the forecast period. The eyewall appears to be reorganizing at this time if one is to look at this radar shanpshot from the NOAA recon plane that just finished a mission over the storm:

100516_noaa_recon_2230utcjgfla

If the storm does not start moving further in a northern direction soon, the impacts on the east coast of Florida will be devastating. Stay tuned as this storm could have a change of direction with the impact from Tropical Storm Nicole.

Radar history courtesy of WeatherUnderground:

Next update here at 05:00 ET 10/06.

It’s just one hell of a creepy storm…

10.04.2016 – 17:30 ET UPDATE –

With Eastern and Southeastern Florida in full panic mode it is only a matter of time before the MSM slams us with 24/7 coverage of the storm and the usual politicians trying to exploit this for their global climate change/warming agenda. Folks, this is not an usual storm as far as the timing and path goes, only the current intensity and hopefully it continues to weaken on the way towards the Bahamas and Florida. Meanwhile, thanks to a poster at S2K (see links at the right) here is a great radar image from Guantanamo Bay:

10.03.2016 –  18:59 ET UPDATE –

FLORIDA is back in the cone of death and people are already freaking out in Miami-Dade and Eastern Florida. This is not going to end well if the models that were once considered “outliers” prove to be correct. If you have not got  your preps or plan in order now, just prepare to die. More as news from the NHC comes in….

10.01.2016 – 17:30 UPDATE –

The storm is undergoing what appears to be an eye wall replacement cycle and expanding outward thus winds are down to 150 mph. Hurricane Warnings are now up for all of Jamaica, Haiti, with watches extended to the eastern half of Cuba. IF the models continue their current trend, the Eastern U.S. could have a very disturbing and interesting week ahead. Stay tuned.

09.30.2016 – 2300 -UPDATE –

Upgraded to a Cat 5 and has the potential to waver between a strong Cat 4 or worse, INTENSIFYING Cat 5 as it heads into Jamaica!!!!!

09.30.2016 – UPDATE –

Hurricane Watches up for Jamaica and Tropical Storm Watches up for Haiti. I fear they will need to be major warnings for Jamaica and Cuba by Sunday at the latest as this monster storm bears down on those islands. The U.S. is NOT out of the woods yet.

************************************

Here we go again gang. I did not bother with Lisa because it was a fish but this storm is interesting because of where it has developed and worse, where it could go north of Jamaica. All interests from Florida to Maine should pay attention to the future track and advisories of this storm.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NHC ADVISORIES
*******************************************************

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090850
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS MATTHEW
MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS...
...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 75.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Little River Inlet to south of Cape Fear
has been discontinued.  The Hurricane Warning from Cape Fear to
Surf City has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface
observations near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. Matthew
is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion
toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew should pass
just south of the coast of North Carolina this morning, and then
move well east of the North Carolina coast by this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly
to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A sustained wind of 61 mph
(98 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h) were recently measured by
a National Ocean Service instrument at Duck, North Carolina.  A wind
gust of 68 mph (109 km/h) was reported at Elizabeth City, North
Carolina, and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported at the
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station near Morehead City, North
Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
warning area this morning and then subside by this afternoon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
this morning.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina,
including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and
extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total
rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches,
continues to result in life threatening flooding and flash flooding
across the region.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2 Comments on "Hurricane Matthew: 10.9 05:00 ET – FINAL UPDATE – Post-Tropical Cyclone is FINALLY moving Out to Sea"

  1. Zetetic | 30/09/2016 at 13:12 |

    Looks like I may have to spend an extra day in Florida if it tracks between me and home later next week.
    Still too far out for the models to be useful.

    • The models should come into closer consensus by Monday; if so, SC, NC, and the Eastern Seaboard could have a long week.

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