by John Galt
December 4, 2016 19:20 ET
Italy has just caused massive market turmoil with one vote as the Italian referendum results as of 6:20 p.m. ET are shocking and way outside of what was predicted by both futures markets and so-called experts once again:
Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has lost a referendum on constitutional reform by a wide margin, exit polls showed on Sunday, throwing his future into doubt and opening the door to renewed political instability in Italy.
Renzi, who had promised to resign if his flagship project was defeated, is due to address the nation at around midnight (6.00 p.m. ET), government sources said.
An exit poll by the Piepoli Institute/IPR for state television station RAI, estimated the ‘No’ vote at 54-58 percent against 42-46 percent for ‘Yes’. Two other polls gave ‘No’ a similar lead of at least 10 points. Voting ended at 11 p.m.
The euro immediately fell against the dollar on the exit polls, slipping to $1.0580 from $1.0625.
If confirmed, the result would represent a fresh blow to the European Union which is struggling to overcome an array of crises and was eager for Renzi to continue his reform drive in the euro zone’s heavily indebted, third-largest economy.
Defeat could also prompt fresh market ructions, especially in the banking sector which has lost almost half its value this year on the Milan bourse, hit by fears over its huge exposure to bad loans accumulated during years of economic downturn.
IF the markets fail to understand the implications until the official certification, the beginning of a cascading sell-off event with Europe leading the way followed by panic in the United States as the Euro currency causes a crash to the 104 or even 103 level once sane minds realize how doomed the European Union currency con game really is.
Meanwhile as of 19:20 ET tonight, here is your Eu(gly)ro chart:
Equity futures are a little slow so wait until tomorrow morning to see the full reaction once the Merkel-Draghi reaction causes everyone to piss themselves. Wow, what a day.