by John Galt
January 2, 2017 22:15 ET
That’s right America! It’s time to pick ourselves up from our overpriced Nike cross trainers and Make America Great Again because by God Happy Days are here again!
Meanwhile, in 2016, first let me highlight what I got right from last year’s thread, and that isn’t much (damned dartboard):
– WTI Crude will briefly trade below $20 per barrel and finish the year in a range between $35 to $52 per bbl.
– Russia will make use of the U.S. Dollar in all transactions with the Russian Federation illegal. They will hold less than $2 billion in U.S. Treasuries when the announcement is made.
– The Mexican Peso will trade at over 20 to the USD.
– Iran will send 30,000 troops into Iraq to stabilize the region around Kurdistan and block any further Turkish incursions into Iraq. Turkey responds by sending 10,000 troops of their own into Kurdistan.
– ISIS will lose another 30% of it’s territory in Iraq and Syria in 2016. Casualty rates will be very high as a renewed Russian supported offensive pushes ISIS out of Western Syria and forces them back towards the Iraqi border. International terrorism activity increases as a result of fighters fleeing overseas.
– Jeb! Bush quits the race as does Marco Rubio after a humiliating defeat in their home state of Florida.
– Arkansas or Oklahoma will experience a 5.5 or higher earthquake. This will start other central U.S. fault lines moving into an active stage.
Well, out of 60, I think that by reading the tea leaves in the bottom of a scotch glass that’s pretty good. Oh, wait a minute, er, never mind.
Thus it is time to open up my favorite scotch from the Island of Islay, my now 22 year old bottle of Bowmore and sip some predictions from the now warm bottle for this thread to be published on January 2, 2017:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average will trade in the widest range in history. The low end might hit in Q1 in the 17,300 – 17, 500 range but before the year is out the DJIA will top 25,000 as the Trump reflation takes hold. Look for the S&P 500 to flirt with 3,000 also.
- Sears Holding Company finally files for Chapter 7 liquidation causing a chain reaction of weak property management and retail REITs to crash and burn also.
- WTI-Crude Oil tops $62 per bbl briefly only to crash back down to the $29-$34 per bbl range during the year. By year end it closes again between $35-$52 per bbl essentially flat for the year end move.
- China reduces U.S. debt holdings by 30% in 2017.
- The Chinese Reminbi (Yuan) is fixed above 8 to the US Dollar in retaliation for Trump’s trade penalties on selected Chinese products.
- Gold follows the 1982-1983 Reagan Revolution pattern and trades down 40% from its highs near $800 per ounce. By year end it tops $1,300 per ounce and continues to rally into 2018 in parallel with equity markets as the bond markets sell off due to excess supply.
- Janet Yellen raises rates 0.25% 3 times in 2017 as she supports the anti-Trump pro-Obama “FU tour.”
- Real Estate re-enters a new bubble as one of Obama’s parting acts is a new Executive Order reducing the mandatory down payment for “certain” low income first time home buyers to 0.1% to 0.5% of the total loan up to $250,000. Trump does not rescind this order.
- All of the Federal Reserve Governors nominated by President Trump are monetarists of the Greenspan mold.
- Japan imposes a 5% tax on all savings. Bank runs begin.
- Hong Kong repegs the Hong Kong Dollar to a basket of currencies instead of the USD.
- The common US Dollar index tops 125 briefly in 2017.
- IBM buys Twitter as the stock falls below $4 per share.
- Defense stocks rally 25% on new Pentagon spending and restructuring.
- Income tax reform results in over $2 trillion in new investments by the public by the end of 2017.
- The Japanese Yen peaks around 150 to the USD.
- Iran and the Kurds successfully destroy ISIS in Mosul with Iraqi help and then in Raqaa. Horrors of human torture, genocide, and evidence of GCC involvement disclosed.
- Israel withdraws from the United Nations.
- The U.S. cuts funding to the U.N. in retaliation for their anti-Israel stance and a new law restricts freedom of movement outside of New York City on U.N. diplomats. The U.N. finally considers relocation to a “neutral” nation like Switzerland.
- North Korea launches an ICBM test 5 days into Trump’s administration. Trump orders and the U.S. Navy successfully shoots it down during the boost phase. Trump announces a full blockade of North Korea in retaliation. China stays silent and Russia quietly approves of this action.
- Iran agrees to meet with U.S. and Russian representatives to renegotiate the nuclear treaty; Israel is permitted to attend as an observer. Iran balks but Russia forces the issue.
- President Donald Trump meets with Vladimir Putin in Reykjavík, Iceland to restart the START treaties, expand on old ones and announce the desire for a global end to the nuclear arms race even though both nations are modernizing key aspects of their arsenals. Following this meeting in April of 2017, meetings occur in New York City and Moscow between the two leaders.
- President Trump announces the “Summit of the Seas” where China agrees to meet in Hong Kong with the U.S., and regional leaders to peacefully resolve the South and East China Sea disputes. In the end a treaty is announced which is viewed by historians as a “delaying action” while the powers in the region re-arm.
- The U.S. withdraws all of its troops from Afghanistan in 2017.
- Mexico files a protest with the United Nations as over 10,000 U.S. troops are deployed to protect contractors constructing the new wall on the U.S. – Mexico border. After 5 drug cartel members are killed for firing at U.S. soldiers, the Mexican government withdraws the protest.
- Canada launches a strong protest with the Trump administration for the deportation of suspected Islamist terrorists back into Canada who crossed into the U.S. from there. President Trump warns Prime Minister Trudeau that NAFTA was not a suicide pact and that concrete is cheap and walls are easy to build. Trudeau backs down.
- The Houthi invade Saudi Arabia and seize dozens of villages for a short time in mid-2017.
- President Trump gets to nominate two conservatives to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2017 due to a liberal judge’s failing health.
- MAGAbonds are oversubscribed and states with sanctuary cities protest that they are ineligible to participate in the program. President Trump reminds them of the Federal sanctions against those cities and they sue in Federal Court as no infrastructure spending is allocated to Democratically controlled sanctuary cities.
- Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) resigns due to “health issues” when Attorney General Jeff Sessions announces the indictment of her husband due to what becomes the Charlie Tuna scandal.
- The New York Times fires Glenn Thrush after they fail to obtain White House Press Credentials due to his involvement with support of the Hillary Clinton campaign.
- Greta van Sustren debuts to moderate ratings on MSNBC only to fade below FNC and HGTV by mid-year.
- NOAA’s military force is disbanded and the ships and sailors trained for combat re-combined with the U.S. Coast Guard.
- President Trump declassifies all of the State Department emails regarding Benghazi over the objections of career State Dept. and CIA bureaucrats.
- Every appointed Federal Attorney is fired on January 22, 2017 at midnight. The MSM howls, no one cares.
- The FCC reverses the “net neutrality” program started under Obama. In addition the DNS Registration is remanded back to U.S. control.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, Teresa May, and several other African and European leaders agree to meet in Dublin with President Trump to hold an anti-Islamist terrorism summit. Conspicuous in her absence is Chancellor Merkel who subsequently loses her election as a result. Trump’s ideas lead to a global standard for visa issuance with participating nations and intelligence sharing on terrorism threats.
- The U.S. withdraws all forces from Bahrain and Qatar due to the discovery by the Trump administration of their financial support for ISIS.
- An estimated 500,000 illegal aliens voluntarily leave the U.S. in 2017; this is in addition to 1.5 million criminal aliens repatriated back to their home countries. The U.S. Border Patrol ranks swell by 3,000 nationwide as the DHS is ordered to re-prioritize its resources.
- There will be 10 named storms this Hurricane season; 4 hurricanes with 1 major, 6 tropical storms. The U.S. feels no major impacts.
- Sunspots continue to decline but 4 major storms cause massive satellite outages and some internet interruptions. The phrase “Maunder Minimum” is muttered as Chicago receives its first June snowfall in over a century.
- The New York Giants upset the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI 23-22 as a two point conversion fails. Eli Manning retires after screaming “How you like that Bro!” and Tom Brady pouts again after a 4 interception game.
- Jon Gruden comes out of retirement to coach the Denver Broncos after meeting secretly with Jon Elway during Super Bowl week.
- The Tampa Bay Rays are sold to an investment group in Las Vegas which plans to relocate the team after the 2018 season.
- The Chicago Cubs repeat as World Series champions. Manager Joe Maddon has a street named after him near Wrigley Field.
- God continues to hate the Tampa Bay Lightning as they lose in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoff to the vile, nasty, evil, Pittsburgh Penguins again.
- The Academy Awards achieve a first with HBO and HGTV getting higher TV ratings that evening.
- Hollywood partners with Comcast to begin release to PPVTV for first release movies to individual subscribers. The $35 per movie fee does not sway subscribers and viewership of movies presented in this format causes a 40% increase in box office gross.
- Several famous “prepper” radio shows and websites will go dark as the Reagan effect (aka, 1983) hits the survivalist market.
- Internet v6.0 is rolled out with 3D visuals and a gaming network running parallel to the old internet. Prototype hologram movie and entertainment programming is tested in late 2017.
That’s it, as I think this will be a good year.
Yes, I repeat, a good year.
Now have a drink to accept that fact as 2018 will probably really, really start to suck. More on that later in 2017.