by John Galt
February 3, 2019 22:30 ET
The bad news from Apple earlier this month impacted the global markets hard since 6 p.m. Eastern Wednesday night on January 2nd of this year with everything from a flash crash in FX (USD/JPY):
To the impact on futures which as of the following morning were down over 300 points on the DJIA.
So why could one stock be the great harbinger that every bear has been hibernating on?
A quick review of Apple’s history without five thousand words about how many central banks (including America’s favorite) which own shares in the stock is in order.
Before AAPL was relevant, it gave a great, precise forecast as to how bad the 2001 crash really was:
That happened long before Apple was actually relevant, it’s few product lines followed the crash of the .com bubble and almost put the company out of business. Then the ingenuity of Steve Jobs saved the company with the iPhone in 2007:
After the great crash, which once again almost destroyed Apple, the market went nuts. The stock flew up to unreal highs along with everything else on cheap credit. And now, well, welcome to what happens when innovation becomes a commodity. Because the markets are the cruelest judge of everything:
In the end, this will not end well unless the financials reverse and help the energy stocks carry the S&P 500 to new highs:
A failure to breach 2775 with volume means this bull is dead and AAPLgeddon is leading the way. Not in the way one thinks however, but in the results that high end spending is fading and the middle class is tapped out. Once that realization hits in the 3rd quarter of 2019, a recession is a strong possibility in Q4.
Buckle up. The iScrewing is about to begin as the go-go teens are about to end. Barring a miracle, I think Apple will roll over in a few months and breach the 130 level leading the markets into the most precise future warning in a decade; however this time it is different, and not in a good way.