Economics

My Prediction for the Post-Election U.S. Stock Market Reaction

by John Galt November 5, 2018 05:00 ET As this guy reminds us on an almost daily basis, the stock market is still around all time highs: But what happens on November 7, 2018 and the post-election hangover? This is my quick and dirty assessment (as promised) of what I could see happening between now and the end of the year in equities only, with some hope that one scenario pans out; because the Democrats having a great night will be a much greater nightmare than anyone could imagine. So let’s…

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The Ultimate Fiat Currency is Heading for Disaster

by John Galt November 3, 2018 05:30 ET On June 13th via ZeroHedge Raoul Paul summed up a shocking reality that most of us realized over many, many, many lost dollars ago: When I started to write this article, it was way, way back in June, but more important matters distracted from my penmanship. Thus why revisiting this draft and publishing it is crucial today. I like the idea of cryptocurrency; however I do not like the concept as currently constructed at this time because it is an invitation to fraud,…


Why American Consumers are About to be Blindsided by a Deflationary Shockwave

by John Galt November 2, 2018 23:55 ET Last night in response to an article posted by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge titled “Why American Consumers Are About To Be Blindsided By An Inflationary Shockwave” I posted a somewhat short, terse, and crude response: The “money line” as I like to refer to it from the ZH posting was this: While inflation still technically remains near the Fed’s 2% target, if you believe the CPI number, which as we have discussed previously woefully undercounts true inflation which is as much as three…


The BIG Oh-Crap: What if the Democrats Have a Great 2018 Election

by John Galt November 1, 2018 05:45 ET The Nancy Pelosi fantasy is not as impossible as some may think. The truth is that if the GOP base fails to show up to vote now through next Tuesday in sufficient numbers, the Democrats will seize control of the House of Representatives and blunt the surge of Republicans having a far larger majority in the U.S. Senate. The impact of Democrats having a great election would be felt all the way down to the state level, which changes the dynamics of our…


Oh My God, We are All Going To Die from the Market Crash

by John Galt October 24, 2018 22:20 ET The screaming headlines everywhere from the New York Post to Zero Hedge says it all, the end of Western Civilization is upon us (again): Thus, we are all going to die, because the usual suspects say so, right? Uh, not in my opinion. I have received emails, requests, concerned private messages, and bewilderment as to why I have not posted my infamous “Deathburger” theme for the markets this month. That is simple: What we are witnessing in the markets this month is nothing…



Bitcoin Bashed, Ethereum Euthanized, and Ripple Ripped a New One

by John Galt August 7, 2018 20:40 ET Without editorializing any further about “if you can’t physically hold it, you don’t own it” here is the disaster de jour in Crypto-land from Coindesk: SEC Delays VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF Decision to September After Facebook Lite, aka, the Winklevoss losers got rejected, this decision indicated to the “markets” that maybe, just maybe, the warnings many of us have been projecting about cybercurrency and government over-regulation may be true. Just because the SEC rejected this application it does not mean that an ETF won’t…


Why the Doomers are Wrong Again or Let the Good Times Roll

by John Galt August 5, 2018 21:50 ET I’m back. So what. Where have I been? Unknown to everyone outside of my immediate family and company that I work for, traveling and engaging in operational and sales discussions which tell me that the prophets of doom, much like the shorts of Tesla (for now), are 100% wrong again. That’s right ladies, we’ve got at least 6 to 9 more months of money for nothing, your kicks for free. Am I saying the risk of a stock market crash in the next…


Rick Santelli Nails It: Conventional Wisdom on Trade Wars is Horse Hockey (Video)

by John Galt June 27, 2018 05:40 ET Due to some family considerations I missed this video yesterday, but by God Rick Santelli on CNBC just hit another home run regarding the so-called trade war (starting at 4:06 mark): Closing Bell Exchange: Stocks recover losses from CNBC. So why do I agree with him? When one listens to the hysteria of the 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. so-called conservative radio talk show hosts they act like it is still 1928. That truly is 100% horse hockey as Mr. Santelli likes to…


The Problem on the Mexican Border is Mexico

by John Galt June 20, 2018 22:30 ET President Trump has failed to address the single problem which is creating the Mexican border crisis and the false narrative about the children allegedly being abandoned by their coyotes and parents at the U.S. border: Mexico. President Trump has tried to play this the nice way. He has tried to work with the RINO’s in the Congress, attempted to treat the situation with kid gloves, hell, he even talked to that phony in Ottawa about security. However for over 30 years now one…


This Is the Golden Age of Hucksterism

by John Galt June 12, 2018 21:40 ET Sigh. No, I am not here to pick on Glenn Beck but to point out that this era is indeed “The Golden Age of Hucksterism.” Proof? According to this individual who advertises on every conservative talk show known to man, give or take a few, Bitcoin will rise almost 90% from its current price to over $50,000 per coin after “lightning network launches.” Sadly, uh, no. Tonight’s price as of this writing (monthly view courtesy of Investing.com): But heck, that’s minor to compared…


All You Need to Know About this Current Market Correction: It ain’t Over

by John Galt February 8, 2018 20:00 ET The story from The Financial Times tonight sums it up: Investors resume their bets against market volatility Yeah, there is still a whole lot of morons still out there. I mean with such sterling plays like XIV in the last 90 days, what could go wrong? The article from FT sums it up: Some investors are creeping back to the “short vol” trade that wiped out several financial instruments earlier this week, betting that stock market volatility will fall once again. More than…


The Fed Lied but Gold Ain’t Died

by John Galt February 1, 2018 05:00 ET From today’s FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) statement: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based…


The US Dollar is Crashing and Burning this Morning

by John Galt January 24, 2018 05:50 ET It would appear that not only have the Euro investors decided that the Dollar is no longer the place to be, but so has Asian investors as the Yen blew through the critical 110 level and even the commodity currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi have a bid. But why? If this is a shift in global confidence due to the malfucntioning US political system, then there might be some validity to this mornings drop. Even the common US Dollar Index is starting…


Don’t Kill the Messenger: Bitcoin Could Drop to $1800 or Lower

by John Galt January 23, 2018 21:00 ET As America becomes more and more fascinated with the internet porn version of “paper gold” (you know, the stuff allegedly stored in a triple secure vault in Perth, Australia), Bitcoin is starting to come under more and more scrutiny. Why one may ask? Perhaps these headlines will help: Alt-right utilizes bitcoin after crackdown on hate speech People are mortgaging their houses to buy Bitcoin Way Too Many People Are Using Credit Cards to Buy Bitcoin Report Reveals 18% of Investors Buy Bitcoin With…


Somehow, I Told You So, Doesn’t Quite Say It

by John Galt January 22, 2018 21:45 ET Ummmm, yeah.. If an investment makes precious metals players like me look good, then, uh, um, yeah… From TheSun(UK): Panicky Bitcoin investors struggle to withdraw cash from money exchanges as they look to ‘safe’ gold investments amid fears of cryptocurrency collapse (excerpted) But it could be bad news for investors tied up in Bitconnect who fear they will lose their money after the controversial trader announced it was shutting down. It assured customers they would be able to withdraw at a “recent exchange…


The Truth About Silver in 1980 and Cryptocurrencies in 2018

by John Galt January 17, 2018 22:40 ET Oh ye who sow ignorance of history, what thou shall reap is the agony of the past, in a present form of pain. – John Galt, January 17, 2018 Today on Bubblevision Channel One, aka, CNBC, a nasty debate about the cryptocurrencies erupted on the television screen:   Here are the key levels to watch for cryptocurrencies from CNBC. Interestingly enough, the part where the CNBC huckster, er, panelist told the guest to “piss off” was edited out of their own version of…


01.17.18 – CRYPTOCARNAGE Resumes After Overnight Rally Geek Squad Wrecked

by John Galt January 17, 2018 05:35 ET The carnage resumed after a rally above $11,000 last night with heavy selling apparently from Europeans and Middle East investors early this morning: Normally I would not recommend tuning into specific radio shows, especially hucksters like Glenn Beck, but his show might be worth a listen if they discuss Bitcoin(BTC) and various cryptocurrencies as he and his sidekick have taken a position in BTC and had several guests on the show touting the cryptocurrency revolution. What makes it interesting is this chart of…


CRYPTOCARNAGE – Bitcoin crashes below 10,000, Ripple down 50%!!!!!

by John Galt January 16, 2017 17:45 ET Uh, um, yup. At least the new kid on the block with the super-duper ultra blockchain is still rocking it, right? What a nightmare. This is what happens when fiat money chases imaginary crypto fiat money and a crash occurs. The exits are not big enough, there is not enough liquidity, and panic ensues. If it doesn’t, well, all I can say is the exit was obvious at $17,000 and now you’ll be lucky to catch a bid, if there is such a…


Oh the Humanity! Crypto Carnage as Bitcoin is down Almost $8000 from its Highs

by John Galt December 22, 2017 09:20 ET Millennial know it all’s, meet gravity: If this isn’t the start of something bigger to the down side the BOHICA when the crash really does come. Technically speaking however, there is little reason to expect major support until this breaks down below the $6,000 to $7,000 range with substantial volume. All of the cryptos are experiencing this year end profit taking so if anyone thinks this is over, well there is a week to go in the year roughly and with the Wall…


12/10 While You Slept Bitcoin Crashed and Recovered Again

by John Galt December 10, 2017 10:15 ET Twas two weeks before Christmas, And all through the Financial Houses, Not a creature was stirring, Except Crypto-mouses. Wow. The “stability” of crypto bubble currencies never ceases to amaze but what Bitcoin has been doing over the last three weeks is nothing short of Ponzi spectacular. Last night was no exception: A drop of over $2,000 since Friday with a bounce back to $15,000 all in one night. Someone in Asia apparently thinks the US futures debut will be a clusterfawk while others…


Bitcoin Might Reach $20,000 Before Winthorpe and Valentine Sell

by John Galt December 7, 2017 06:35 ET I’m not saying that the chart I posted last week looks vaguely familiar, but here it is again for those who emailed and commented on “Guess this Chart” last week: For those who wonder, it was the NASDAQ from August 9, 1995 until the top right before it crashed in 2000. The August 1995 date is significant because it market the debut of Netscape on to the market and the wave of .com bombs which caused a massive crash which followed. Which brings…


Today’s Old Man on the Beach in a Speedo Stock Market

by John Galt December 4, 2017 21:20 ET Well, you took the click bait so let me give you my rant before making your eyes hurt with today’s market action. Granted, I live close to one of the most beautiful and popular beaches in the world at Siesta Key, thus the dress code is somewhat lax, especially during the season when the northerners and Europeans invade. But for Pete’s sake people, especially you old guys, do not wear speedos or other European swimwear thinking you have a body like Borat with…



Despite Idealism, the Communist Mugabe in Zimbabwe was Not Deposed Due to Idealism

by John Galt November 19, 2017 23:35 ET This weekend the international and naive US media have once again portrayed the overthrow of the long standing communist dictatorship of Robert Mugabe as that of a “populist” revolution against a stale region. Trust me. It is 100% bullshit. This is about one thing which was announced by the Mugabe government in 2016 and ultimately will result in his downfall. From the UK Guardian on March 3, 2016: Robert Mugabe to nationalise Zimbabwe’s diamond industry If anyone thinks this is not enough to…


Why 2018 Will Continue to set Records for Stocks (Until it Doesn’t)

by John Galt November 19, 2017 22:00 ET The theory behind Trumponomics is as simple as it gets: Buy the bubble until you can not afford to. This is the same issue which arose during the 1990’s, yet few, if any, of today’s young quants can relate to the issues of that time which are mirrored in today’s era of stock froth and insanity. Old dogs like Dennis Gartman and Art Cashin wonder aloud why the traditional shorting and other strategies are floundering in the face of an overvalued market based…


While you Slept: Bitcoin CRASHED 10% Overnight and over 25% Since Thursday

by John Galt November 12, 2017 01:45 ET Oops. This was not supposed to happen according to Geekdom Economics 101:     However, when you hear hucksters like Glenn Beck and others start to dump their gold promos for “wow, look at the pretty tulips” type of hype, you know the shit is about to crash. And so it has. Since Thursday, 11/9 Bitcoin on the open market has crashed almost 27% as of just about an hour ago. What does this mean for the bigger picture? It means that this…


Why the Dow Could Rise to 25,000 or fall to 10,000 in 2 Easy Charts

by John Galt October 30, 2017 05:00 ET Hilarious, right? Most individuals are laughing at the past, enjoying movies like “The Big Short” and ignoring what has happened in the past versus what is happening now. Why do I say this? The idiots who watch Fox Business, CNBS, or Bloomberg TV, read the Wall Street Journal or Financial Times and fancy themselves as “experts” on the markets. While anyone could have purchased an index fund or ETF in 2010 and held on for dear life for the bull market ride of…


From the Crap You Can’t Make up File – Equifax gets Fraud Prevention Contract from IRS

by John Galt October 3, 2017 20:00 ET I swear you just can not make this crap up any more. From Politico’s website tonight: IRS awards multimillion-dollar fraud-prevention contract to Equifax Yes, seriously. The same IRS that handles all of your private information just gave a no-bid multi-million dollar contract to the company which exposed all of your private information to every Pakistani, North Korean, and Russian hacker on planet Earth. Excerpted: The IRS will pay Equifax $7.25 million to verify taxpayer identities and help prevent fraud under a no-bid contract…


09.03 00:30 ET BREAKING NEWS: Large Nuclear Test in North Korea 6.3 Magnitude

by John Galt September 3, 2017 00:30 ET Effective immediately the rules have changed. Earlier today, the North Korean government claims they have developed a miniaturized hydrogen bomb which could be mounted on its missiles and used to attack U.S. targets and interests. From Yonhap News in South Korea: N.K. claims development of hydrogen bomb for ICBM North Korea claimed Sunday it has developed a hydrogen bomb that can be mounted on its new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), saying that it can produce as many powerful nuclear weapons as it wants….


One Picture Which Proves Bitcoin is a Bubble

by John Galt August 20, 2017 22:10 ET Should I post a bunch of graphs comparing the 1990’s tech boom to Bitcoin? Eh, no. What about an in-depth analysis of the Tulip mania compared to other bubbles past and present. Er, no, not that again. Just the picture below which I snapped one day while sitting at a traffic light in Sarasota County: Cash4Gold was a fad and flopped. When someone implies that it is “easy money” it isn’t, it is a bubble. This too shall pass, mark my words. Enjoy.


China Threatens U.S. if Pre-Emptive Strike Against North Korea Occurs

by John Galt August 10, 2017 21:45 ET Nothing like watching a Chinese People’s Liberation Army hell march video to remind everyone that they have the largest military in the world. The superpower race has shifted thanks to globalist ambitions over the last forty years thanks to the major nuclear powers ceding the actual dying over to subsidiary client nations whether they wanted to fight for those powers or not. Tonight in the Global Times of China, an official organ of the Chinese Communist Party, the following editorial appears which clearly…


The Next Market Crash Will Not be Televised

by John Galt July 31, 2017 05:00 ET Way, way, way, way back before televisions were generally available in color, cable was a luxury reserved for hotels and the wealthy, and financial television was reserved to Louis Rukeyser and a weekly program on PBS and the “Nightly Business Report”, the idea of information beyond the 6:30 p.m. national newscast was considered absurd. In fact when the 1987 Market Crash hit live on cable television, it was the quixotic moment which brought financial news out of the shadows and into the forefront….


The Ugliest Stock Chart of July 2017

by John Galt July 30, 2017 20:10 ET Uglier than Rosie O’Fat’s wedding kiss? Yup: It has not broken any long term support levels yet, but if there are more weeks like the last one on increased volume, then odds are we will break support and indicate that a major divergence has been validated and a key market reversal has begun. The next 90 days (hmmm, where have I heard that) could be super dangerous for equity traders as the proverbial “Black Swan” is now flying all over the algo houses…


The Ultimate Bitcoin Crash Nightmare

by John Galt July 30, 2017 19:00 ET The experts in Bitcoinland have been proclaiming how great this cryptocurrency is and shall be into the future. The “experts” also claimed that it was healthy for the cryptocurrencies that the Securities and Exchange Commission required ICO’s (Initial Coin Offerings) within the United States to be treated somewhat like IPO’s (more at this link).  However, and as usual with new technologies (a la Portfolio Insurance, Derivatives, etc.) the SEC is already 4 years behind a burgeoning multi-billion dollar industry as most nation’s regulators…


Friday’s Poop-The-Bed Stock Chart Special

by John Galt July 28, 2017 21:50 ET From the once, er now not so much, magical rabbit pooping company MicroStrategy’s website: We provide powerful software solutions and expert services that empower every individual with actionable intelligence, helping enterprises unleash the full potential of their people and investments. Our analytics and mobility platform delivers high-performance business applications that meet the needs of both business and IT. Now that we’ve established what they do, how did they do after last quarter’s earnings report: In technical analysis that is called “shitting the bed”…


Thanks to the Trumpcare Collapse Here comes the Great Crash of 2017

by John Galt July 28, 2017 05:30 ET Around 2 a.m. Eastern time this morning, the revenge of the Establishment Republicans was complete with three progressive obstructionists voting to kill any consideration of a conference on the repeal of Obamacare. The three names will become legendary in history not for their vote tonight, but for the symbolism of how politicians are so entrenched in maintaining the attempted control of the U.S. economic system from Washington, D.C. This has happened before in history so do not let the so-called conservatives on talk…


Today’s “Oh Shit Chart of the Day” Courtesy of the Dow Jones Transports

by John Galt July 27, 21:45 ET The Dow was up but the rest of the equity market took one giant leap for turdkind today in what can only be a warning shot for the upcoming fireworks that the Repbulicons and D.C. are just determined to inflict upon the American economy. The “Oh Shit” chart of the day is courtesy of the Dow Transports which dumped over 3% which in normal times would cause the old timers to get a tad bit excited: For the math geniuses now running Wall Street…



August 1, 2017 Starts the Most Dangerous 90 Days in American History

by John Galt July 19, 2017 09:00 ET Donald J. Trump has been President of the United States (POTUS for short) for almost seven months by August 1st and everyone should rightfully be terrified; not of him or his Presidency but the ominous parallels to our past. The Republicans have held a majority it he legislative branch along with the executive for the same duration. The stock market has enjoyed a bull market of historic proportions without a correction for the longest period in post Federal Reserve Act history. And effective…


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