by John Galt December 30, 2012 15:00 ET So how did I do? First, unlike many bloggers, prognosticators, commentators, and hosts, I will refer to my predictions for this year that is about to end by reminding everyone they can see my mistaken and correct predictions of doom in this thread from my radio show and in this thread: JohnGaltFLA.com Predictions for 2012 Let’s break this down, section by section and score it by +1 for correct, -1 for…
by John Galt July 15, 2012 16:05 ET Ambrose Evans-Pritrchard doubles down on his criticism of the central banksters in tonight’s column in the U.K. Telegraph: Fed fiddles as America slides back into recession Is Mr. Pritchard supporting this discussion based on the statements of the ECRI only? From the article he states: The Federal Reserve has drifted into fatalism, seeming to lose confidence in its own ability to shape events, displaying the same lack of “Rooseveltian resolve” as the…
by John Galt May 22, 2012 17:45 ET In a not so subtle article from the newspaper Adnkronos, the crisis in Italy is far from over and might indeed be accelerating: Businesses suffering ‘credit crunch,’ report says This excerpt from the story tells of a tale of woe growing month by month: Italian businesses are facing a credit crunch,” according to a report by the national statistics agency. Last year “modest investment activity was accompanied by a growth in the…
by John Galt February 2, 2012 17:15 ET The Obama administration, Federal Reserve, and their compliant slugs in the mainstream media continue to ignore reality and issue glowing reports from the Department of Propaganda as usual. Reality? The non-seasonally adjusted claims continue to indicate that job creation is sluggish and akin to 0% growth or recessionary indications and the seasonal adjustments are purely political rather than statistical in nature. While the Fed and administration might well be pleased using inflation to reflect economic expansion,…
by John Galt January 29, 2012 22:00 ET There will be great discussion about the “recovery” of 2011, but the reality of just how dire the economy is for Main Street is best defined by the one asset the average soul attempts to hold up as their primary investment, the single family house. Unfortunately for the political elites, the disaster which was housing in 2007 is not much better in 2011 and in fact appears to be taking a sharp, decisive turn to the downside…
JohnGaltFLA Predictions for 2012 By John Galt January 1, 2012 – 17:00 ET I. Geopolitical Predictions 1. The United States constructs a new large military base in Columbia near the Venezuelan border in anticipation of the collapse of the Chavez regime. The new focus on South America is seen as a desire to refocus American foreign policy as the Middle East rejects any further interference from the United States. Columbia welcomes the action as it intertwines the U.S. into their internal conflicts and…
By John Galt December 05, 2011 – 12:20 ET A fascinating speech from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s President Charles Evans was delivered today and just released via the Fed website: A Risk Management Approach to Monetary Policy To read the speech in full, click on the link above. Two fascinating statements from the speech caught my attention and should signal that there is a level of deep concern within the Fed hierarchy that is not being discussed by the financial media. First the…
By John Galt November 28, 2011 – 16:20 ET Do you really need a “see I told you so” or would a wake the bleep up do? Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has penned a piece for tomorrow morning’s edition of the U.K. Telegraph which should either put you into Depends or force you to use Cyber-Monday to reinforce your supplies: Europe’s shrinking money supply flashes slump warning Personally, I do not think it is a warning. I think it is Lehmanesque capitulation. Got gold? Silver? Ammo? Read…
By John Galt October 19, 2011 – 13:30 ET The story from CNBS today highlights the hypocrisy of today’s financial media and the fact that they would rather act as arms of propaganda for the regime, be it Democrat or Republican, in power, so as to convince your grandma to buy 20 shares of stock in any company so they can fleece her just one more time before she dies. CSX ‘Barometer’ Shows Improving US Economy: CEO The story at CNBC from Margo D. Beiler…
By John Galt September 30, 2011 – 05:15 ET Ugh. On Tuesday’s radio show I outlined how the coming stock market crash will drastically impact the U.S. and world economies and the severity of what October’s nightmare might mean to the average citizen in the U.S. Needless to say, I did not paint a picture of unicorns flying overhead spewing rainbows and Skittles out of their rears. The stock markets are now technically set up for a 25-35% decline in October, most of which I…
By John Galt September xx, 2011 – XX:XX ET The latest from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the UK Telegraph website: Debt crunch threatens China and emerging markets
By John Galt September 26, 2011 – 12:15 ET To say that this morning;s report from the Commerce Department was any encouragement about a long term economic recovery in the construction industry would be a major lie. The data continues to reflect and bounce along the long term bottom created by the speculative frenzy from the previous decade. The most interesting stats are reflected in the ongoing decline in sales for homes over $300,000. First chart for review is the monthly new home sales in…
By John Galt September 23, 2011 – 05:01 ET Effective at 5 p.m. Wednesday, September 21, 2011 the most profitable company in America was: Any bar within walking distance of Wall Street. With thousands of financial industry workers facing layoffs, the Federal Reserve dropping their shorts and mooning the Obamites and retirees of the nation, and Main Street more concerned about the televised distractions of our Roman Circus based society, the world is sending a strong signal that the cyclical bear has departed from its…
By John Galt September 21, 2011 – 18:30 ET The battle of demographics, logic, and incompetence within the great American economic model is about to come to a head. The aging population with demands on the government for social programs and aid versus the younger, less educated, quasi-Marxist believers are incapable by and large of supporting the elderly, much less themselves. The United States government has demonstrated total incompetence doing the very basic function of balancing the budget and as a result, while wars rage…
By John Galt September 21, 2011 – 05:25 ET As many of my readers and listeners know, I am a huge proponent of pattern recognition not just within individual equities, markets, or commodities but in economic cycles also. Despite massive attempts at intervention in Europe and the United States, the actions since the summer of 2010 have been feeble at best, pathetic in reality. The chart pattern for gold was signaling a long term inflationary trend with the potential for hyperinflation until the double top…
By John Galt September 14, 2011 – 11:00 ET Just a reminder: Click on the link in the upper right hand side of the page where the Economic Charts, Data, & Links box chocked full of charts is located to see all of the charts as the quietest month for bank failures is under way. The FDIC is deliberately trying to hide this problem as Cal’s graphic below illustrates:
By John Galt August 29, 2011 – 10:45 ET The outlook from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank report on manufacturing has gone from bad to worse in the August survey. The general business activity index remained negative for the fourth month in a row and fell from –2 to –11.4 and indications within the survey tend to signal further declines in the immediate future. The index overall has reached the flat line which in and of itself is a bad indicator for the nation: This…
By John Galt August 24, 2011 – 13:55 ET A little late posting this from the report this morning but I wanted to check some data and see if my hunch was correct. As usual, it was. Thankfully machinery and capital goods orders do look better but generally the headlines flashed across the screens this morning tell a tale of using month over month and year over year statistics to extract the most desirable headline. The trailing 6 month non-seasonally adjusted figure though shows a…
By John Galt August 14, 2011 – 12:00 ET As the talking heads begin their next relentless wave of “buy and hold” recommendations along with the “underlying economy is sound” nonsense while dismissing the potential for a recession just like they did in 2008, more evidence is appearing on the horizon that indeed world economic conditions are deteriorating. On Friday a story appeared in the Canadian news paper, The Globe and Mail, via the Financial Times of London which is the clearest signal yet that…
By John Galt July 8, 2011 Uh, sell? Wow, I butchered that prediction but see what happens Mr. President when I try to follow the herd and read into the consensus that you’re BLS is going to fabricate a happy-happy joy-joy number? Only 18,000 net non-farm jobs added but I did nail the unemployment rate of 9.2% per the report from the BLS this morning. Look at the pretty red candlestick on the S&P futures: So much for the ADP report having a clue, once…
By John Galt June 14, 2011 The NFIB monthly Economic Trends Report for Small Businesses has been released and the information contained within offers little reason for optimism as reflected by their data. Small business optimism dropped again in May with a myriad of reasons being provided to indicate that small business will be limiting expansion and is indeed following our Irish brethren (see this posting) in moving into the “hunker down” or survival mode. The lack of optimism and apparent economic headwinds is…
By John Galt June 1, 2011 All is calm? Uh, I don’t think so… The economy is a disaster. Hurricane season begins today. Are you prepared? Check out this series by clicking on this link from Impact Weather on the errors people make in Hurricane Preparedness. You can download the program by clicking on this link. Or click below to listen to the program here (FYI, compressed to 32K because it was over 2 hours):
By John Galt May 28, 2011 The nightmare report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) yesterday was mixed with humor from Lawrence Yun and a notable shift in the double dip portion of America’s housing industry disaster. With upwards of one third of all existing home sales anchored by distressed sales, the pending home sales report usually reflects a trend of recovery or further decline and based on the four month average the market is headed for a serious deterioration as the index is…
By John Galt May 17, 2011 The Commerce Department released the latest report on housing starts and permits revealed that no sane, logical, intelligent soul would accept the FIBS (Financial Infomercial Broadcasting Services, aka CNBC, FBN, BLM) mantra of the past year that housing has bottomed and that the recovery was well under way. Amazingly enough the preachings and screeching of the pro-regime talking heads was non-existent on the morning radio or television programs. Thus there is a realization that perhaps, just perhaps, free money…
By John Galt April 21, 2011 If this is a recovery, I can’t wait to see the next recession, er, depression, er bubble boom….. MLB Takes Over Dodgers Operations Lee County’s $340 million foreclosure auction draws no serious bids Commercial real estate makes up 77% of troubled loans at failed banks Rising food costs spur massive US theft of produce, meat NM Symphony Orchestra Files Chapter 7 Bankruptcy Scovill Fasteners Seeks Bankruptcy Protection to Sell Assets (209 year old Company) Maronda Homes of…
By John Galt April 11, 2011 And 2020 might be conservative…. Despite the prognosis from the mouth flapping pantloads of D.C. and Wall Street, the American real estate market is close to a decade away from recovery; if not longer. The popular proclamations from the National Association of Realtors is that the existing home sales should increase 5 to 10% this year which is akin to saying we’ve climbed ten feet up from the bottom of a one hundred foot well we’ve fallen into.…
Recent Comments