by John Galt
August 1, 2012 19:25 ET
Updated 8/2 1700 ET:
Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed per the NHC. Updates are below.
Here we go gang and the long term models and forecast could indicate trouble for the Gulf of Mexico potentially within a week or so.
8/1/12 19:25 ET:
Ugh. Welcome to August and the start of the peak of the hurricane season. I’ll use this thread to maintain the updates as it strengthens into Tropical Storm Ernesto then Hurricane Ernesto over the weekend. Sadly, it might be something us Floridians have to deal with or worse, our friends in Texas might have to watch.
Meanwhile, here is the usual package of models, satellite pictures, and more courtesy of the National Hurricane Center, Weather Underground, SWFMUD, and RAL.
NHC FLOATER - UPDATES AUTOMATICALLY
ERENESTO from Weather Underground
SWFMUD MODEL ASSEMBLY
RAL SPAGHETTI MODLE RUNS
NHC ADVISORY#1 FOR TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 8/2 1700 ET:
000
WTNT35 KNHC 032033
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
…ERNESTO MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.9N 64.1W
ABOUT 210 MI…335 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 340 MI…545 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH…33 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165
KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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