By John Galt December 28, 2011 – 08:15 ET When these pages say “preparing for the fall” I am not referring to a change in seasons. The one chart, a bear among the most bearish, says it all: The breakdown of of Goldman Sachs is a leading, not lagging indicator of future activity. This collapse after the death cross as pictured above is usually a warning for a stock and in this case the financials that further stresses are about to impact the markets. The…
By John Galt December 27, 2011 – 07:30 ET Now that the holidays are over with, the returns complete, it is time to prepare for a harsh reality once again. First, the continued crisis in Italy continues with the 10 year yield crossing 7% again this morning, despite massive intervention by the ECB and member banks. (chart via Bloomberg.com) Secondly, the EUR/JPY swap is signaling another leg down in the Euro currency is imminent, probably at the end of this week or the next at…
By John Galt December 21, 2011 – 14:55 ET Over the past few years I have been writing and commenting on the other housing crisis in Europe, that being of the nations who issued mortgages in Euros to Eastern European nations. Hungary was one of the largest nations in which the citizens borrowed heavily from Austrian banks in Euros but their local currency, the Forint, was used to pay those banks back. That worked fine until the Euro skyrocketed in value and the Hungarian economy…
By John Galt December 21, 2011 – 09:50 ET Because it is poor form to report bad economic news before Christmas and blasphemy to acknowledge data which gives the impression that our Imperious Leader (sorry, Dear Leader was taken) is impotent and incompetent regarding economic matters, the housing data reported yesterday was trumpeted as an indication of a possible bottom or start of the bottoming process in the housing market. In fact some blogs like Business Insider performed their usual duty of posting blog entries…
By John Galt December 20, 2011 – 05:20 ET Yesterday’s market action on thin volume was in a word, brutal. All of the indicators that Santa Claus was going to save the day failed. Gold rallied above $1600, then fell. Oil barely moved. Financial stocks scream of a disaster building cause in the markets. And despite the horrid yields, people are piling cash into the U.S. bond market, even accepting real and net negative yields to insure the return of capital. The S&P 500′s failure…
By John Galt December 19, 2011 – 16:45 ET Tonight’s commentary from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard via the U.K. Telegraph: Spain grits teeth yet again as austerity deepens <click on the title to read the full article> This excerpt really sums up the depth of the crisis about to hit the Spanish people, remainder of the PIIGS, and the European Union as a whole: It may prove harder this time within the euro straight-jacket. “The global economy was much stronger then and they benefitted from devaluation,” said…
By John Galt December 19, 2011 – 15:40 ET Chart from CNBC.com for once: S&P 1200 is in doubt once again….bah humbug! Uh-oh…Sing it Petula!
By John Galt December 16, 2011 – 16:30 ET Cue Greek Music like…. Now burp, then try to digest the truth instead of the ECB and Federal Reserve/Mainstream Media lies and distortions…. “Hole” almost 2.2 billion in Social Security That story, translated from Google via Prothema.gr spells out the disaster about to hit the Eurozone… From the translated article: Indicative of the problem is the fact that so far in 11 months ie by early 2011, the “hole” in the Social Security funds reached 2.177…
By John Galt December 15, 2011 – 17:55 ET Today’s story by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard drops a not so subtle hint as to the winter of discontent getting ready swamp the European Union member nations: Talk of ‘nuclear default’ sums up Left’s anger at EU dictates The first sentence from this story via the U.K. Telegraph’s edition tonight comes courtesy of an angry Portuguese politician: “We have an atomic bomb that we can use in the face of the Germans and the French: this atomic bomb…
By John Galt December 14, 2011 – 11:20 ET Down over 4% now and looking technically horrid describes the WTI move today. Perhaps Iran should look into more “exercises” in the Straits of Hormuz. Chart from YahooFinance: This could get ugly around 3:30 p.m. ET today without a good rumor or three…..
By John Galt December 14, 2011 – 10:57 ET No sooner than the ink did dry on my 2 out of 3 strike warning, than BOOM. Swing and amiss: (chart from FOREXPROS.com) All bets are now off without MASSIVE INTERVENTION by the central banksters. S&P 1092 could come into play rapidly unless the Forex markets are checked.
By John Galt December 14, 2011 – 10:30 ET I would call this a major concern for those who think that the European crisis is cured or that the markets can not crash in December. STRIKE 1: Gold violates 200 Day Moving Average (DMA) Next stop $1480 and a warning signal of short term deflation on the horizon. STRIKE 2: S&P 500 Violates key Support at 1220 below 50 DMA Next stop, $1152 if the markets can not recover the 50 DMA today above 1220…
By John Galt December 13, 2011 – 16:45 ET Last week’s show was highlighted with this statement: What we could, and probably will face, is not about revenge, fighting, or submission; it is about survival. Tonight, I start the show by warning about the plans should Ron Paul fail to win the Presidency of the United States and the destruction of our Constitution should he not blunt the efforts of the elites and their globalist allies. During hour number two: Part 3/4 of the Doomer…
By John Galt December 9, 2011 – 05:30 ET If yesterday’s decline is any indication, then today’s continuation of voting by the U.S. short term Treasuries should provide anyone with an open mind the true feelings of how large investors and nations feel about about the alleged EU resolution and the ongoing crisis since August: No my fellow readers, your eyes are not deceiving you. Just as during the heights of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, people fled all other investments and drove U.S. yields on…
By John Galt December 7 2011 – 05:40 ET Without further ado, here is your rumor selection of the day from Europe: a. Europe will create 7 new bailout programs and print faster than the Fed. b. The new Eurobond will be called the “Transformer Bond” and it will change shape, yield, and form with each corresponding drop in equities (aka the Megatron bond) c. Merkel agrees to marry Sarkozy. d. Sarkozy agrees to marry his dog. e. All of the above In reality the…
By John Galt December 6, 2011 – 17:10 ET Tonight’s entry from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard via the U.K. Telegraph: S&P has no choice: Euroland risks bankruptcy on current policies Uh, S&P could have done this in 2008 or 2009 when it was first discovered that much of the European Union was a paper tiger and insolvent, but alas, beggars can’t be choosers. Three sentences from the article sum up his pro-Keynesian position which is as fatalistic as the current policies being pursued by the Union itself:…
By John Galt December 7, 2011 – 16:50 ET Ambrose Evans-Pritchard once again dares to utter what politicians and banksters on both sides of the Atlantic and Channel do not want to hear from his column in tonight’s U.K. Telegraph: Zilch again from Merkozy From the article: No fiscal union, no Eurobonds, no ECB as lender of last resort – yet. Just the usual blather and a revamped Stability Pact (Fiskalunion). Yawn. All I can say is oh CHIT!
By John Galt November 30, 2011 – 14:40 ET Someone forgot to tell GS about the TV Party tonight: Ah, nothing like a little Black Flag to fire up the masses. Then again, these charts are buttgly but they are from 2008! Let’s start with the September 2008 super duper liquidity “we’re going to save the world” bailout period which is an almost perfect duplication of today: (click to enlarge/reduce charts) Impressive? Nah. But if today’s market action parallels this move, which it appears…
By John Galt November 30, 2011 – 13:45 ET Youch. While Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has never appeared “Euro-centric” to this blogger, today’s commentary in the print edition of the U.K. Telegraph sounds like there are sharp lines being drawn across the Atlantic with the interdependency of the Fed, Bank of England, and ECB starting to create a harshness which appears to be exposed in this editorial: Citigroup sentences Europe to Lost Decade From my perspective, Citigroup missed the 2007-2009 debacle so their forecasting leaves, well, uh…
By John Galt November 30, 2011 – 12:50 ET If I were to offer an unbiased opinion, I would say that it is too early to tell. However, the lack of a vociferous and solid course of action for the EFSF to bail out anything beyond what has been established for the nations of Portugal,Ireland, and Greece versus the abject panic in Berlin and Paris about the collapse of Italy and Spain tells this blogger that indeed, a decision may have been made to limit…
By John Galt November 30, 2011 – 09:00 ET No words are necessary to tell you what is happening next, so I thought I would let the 2008 charts speak for themselves. (Click to enlarge/reduce chart size) Sept 2008 S&P 500: Aug 2008-Dec 2008 S&P 500: Sept 2008 Gold: Notice the spike as gold rallied on the dollar swap liquidity announcement. Aug – Dec 2008 Gold:
By John Galt November 29, 2011 – 22:40 ET As someone who once enjoyed the sport of skydiving in my youth the phrase “terminal velocity” was often misinterpreted by many of my friends to believe it was a term regarding the endangerment of one’s life when jumping out of a perfectly good airplane. However once you achieved the maximum speed during free fall, it was easy enough to control and enjoy the descent unless of course the parachute fails to open. Welcome to the European…
By John Galt November 29, 2011 – 16:55 ET Goldman Sachs HSBC Bank of America Citigroup Merrill Lynch unit of BoA Wells Fargo plus 31 others. More info after the press release is issued in detail via the Standard & Poor’s website. Well, still no press release as of 17:50 but here is Reuter’s version of the story at the link below: S&P criteria change reduces ratings on big banks
By John Galt November 28, 2011 – 16:20 ET Do you really need a “see I told you so” or would a wake the bleep up do? Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has penned a piece for tomorrow morning’s edition of the U.K. Telegraph which should either put you into Depends or force you to use Cyber-Monday to reinforce your supplies: Europe’s shrinking money supply flashes slump warning Personally, I do not think it is a warning. I think it is Lehmanesque capitulation. Got gold? Silver? Ammo? Read…
By John Galt November 23, 2011 – 14:45 ET Do I really need to offer a snide remark or commentary? Seriously? How about some fireworks to celebrate and congratulate the effort? Yet there are those morons who appear on the “financial news networks” and proclaim that “sure, there’s no problem, the Greeks can pay this off.” There are better odds that we’ll see pictures of Barrack Obama and Michelle Bachmann nude, in bed, at a Motel 6 in Ottumwa, Iowa being leaked to the media.…
By John Galt November 22, 2011 – 22:00 ET Just a quick note before I crash for 4 hours: FUGLY. Wow. (ALL CHARTS FROM FOREXPROS.COM…click here to see all of their futures charts) U.S. Futures down hard: Down 13.10 at this posting. But what is scarey is the FOREX futures…. Aussie v. USD: Canadian Dollar v. USD: Hang-Seng Index (down 2.05% at the moment): Stay tuned, this could get super ugly with a holiday in the U.S. on Thursday and massive uncertainty about Europe’s future…
By John Galt November 21, 2011 – 21:45 ET From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K. Telegraph; read them and weep for our friends in Europe: Self-serving myths of Europe’s neo-Calvinists Hungary turns to IMF as stress mounts in Eastern Europe
By John Galt November 21, 2011 – 07:15 ET With futures looking pretty ugly already, the blame game has begun. Blame the Spanish election. Blame the Italians. Blame the Greeks. Blame the ECB. Blame the extra-Constitutional super-committee. In reality these entities have been the problem all along, creating a nightmarish if not illegal Ponzi economy which as it implodes takes layer upon layer of their citizen’s wealth with them. The desperation expressed by the financial and political elites to preserve their power base and the…
By John Galt November 16, 2011 – 07:00 ET If anyone thinks the roller coaster is over with, look at this chart of the S&P futures from last night through the early morning hours and until about 6:50 a.m. EST: (all charts courtesy of ForexPros.com) So the photo at the top of this thread of the Millennium Roller Coaster or the S&P chart are pretty much identical. Please keep your hands and arms inside the car at all times and strap yourself in as the…
By John Galt November 1, 2011 – 22:00 ET The calm before the storm is in place as the breaking news tonight via The Athens News: Cabinet backs PM’s referendum decision The cabinet decided early on Wednesday to back Prime Minister George Papandreou’s proposal for a referendum on a European Union aid deal, the government spokesman said. “The cabinet expressed its support,” said government spokesman Elias Mossialos. “The referendum will take place as soon as possible, right after the basics of the bailout deal are…
By John Galt November 1, 2011 – 21:35 ET Ambrose Evans-Pritchard nails it tonight in his UK Telegraph commentary: Revenge of the Sovereign Nation (Click on the link above to read in full) Excerpted: The Greek referendum – if it is not overtaken by a collapse of the government first – has left officials in Paris, Berlin, and Brussels speechless with rage. The ingratitude of them. The spokesman of French president Nicolas Sarkozy (himself half Greek, from Thessaloniki) said the move was “irrational and dangerous”.…
By John Galt October 26, 2011 – 22:00 ET Ambrose Evans-Pritchard nails it again tonight as the hopium high wears off. (Click on the UK Telegraph link below to read) Europe’s grand gamble risks failure without ECB All you need to know is in this portion of the article: First loss is a form of structured credit all too like US sub-prime debt. It concentrates risk. Those holding these tranches of debt take the hit, in this case creditor states. The question is whether this…
By John Galt October 25, 2011 – 21:35 ET To say tomorrow will be interesting is an understatement. Read the rest from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the U.K. Telegraph by clicking on this link: EU rescue plans hostage to raw politics Thankfully the entire crisis is depending on the French. Translation: Europe is screwed.
By John Galt October 23, 2011 – 17:55 ET From SkyNews this afternoon: Greek PM: ‘Existence Of Europe Under Threat’ Thankfully they do not have a nuke plant on a major earthquake fault (do they?). The article by Robert Nisbet says it all in this quote: The Prime Minister of Greece has said the very “existence of Europe” is at risk from the debt crisis. After some intense reflection, the collapse of Rome did not destroy Europe, World Wars I & II, did not destroy…
By John Galt October 23, 2011 – 16:50 ET As the evening progresses, the jokes, er similarities between the U.S. in 2008 and the Eurocircus keep on coming. The latest story from Reuters reeks of the morons in Congress debating the “TARP” fiasco and the only thing missing is one of the Euros to come out like W did and say words to the effect that the European economy “was fundamentally sound and still growing” or other idiocy. The latest hilarity: EU bank plan may…
By John Galt October 19, 2011 – 21:45 ET US Economy: Home Starts Jump, Consumer Prices Stabilize BusinessWeek Housing starts jump 15 percent in September Kansas City Star Increase in housing starts could portend improving market The Hill (blog) Just sigh. There is no bottom until there is no hope. When will these people learn? Of curse when there is an agenda to yell into an empty stadium for everyone to rise up and cheer, the current crop of “journalists” and “economists” acting as agents…
By John Galt October 18, 2011 – 22:00 ET Remember the joys of 2008? The backroom deals. Hank Paulson intimidating the elected morons into cutting unconstitutional deals to steal monies from taxpayers to bail out the banksters. President Bush acting like an idiot on television claiming the economy was still okay and the U.S. would be fine. Fast forward to 2011: The backroom deals. Turbo Timmy Geithner and the Fed pressuring the states to accept an unconstitutional deal to give immunity to and bail out…
By John Galt October 18, 2011 – 05:30 ET The chart above is: a. A typical HFT activity chart b. The SPY for the last 4 years on a daily basis c. NFLX intraday minute by minute chart d. A Seismograph The answer is ‘d’ but it could have been any of them the way our whacky markets have behaved over the last four years. Today will be no exception. A horrid technical formation as outlined last night in the post-market postmortem told the tale…
By John Galt October 17, 2011 – 16:45 ET Well, the musical selection was appropriate… Here is the big picture, click to enlarge/reduce the chart: The failure to break out above 1230 with volume is a nightmare scenario which is why I projected a nasty crash this month and so far, that prediction remains somewhat intact. If anyone thinks the Euros will cure squat, you’re smoking squat from the poppy fields of Afghanistan. To illustrate the damning technical formation, here are the last three…
By John Galt October 16, 2011 – 16:45 ET Tonight’s edition for the October 17 print edition of the UK Telegraph’s latest from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is about as cold, real, and hardcore as it gets. The article in full spells out how a “union” in Europe, and I use that term with a smug smile, could well lead to a financial crisis worse than Lehman and Merrill’s collapse combined without ever hinting as to the direct impact on the world economy. The sentence used in…
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