By John Galt
October 27, 2011 05:30
And that’s why these suckers are so hard to forecast. Cancun gets wet. The U.S. gets zilch.
Storm cancel.
This will be the final update on this thread barring a radical shift in the storm.
October 26, 2011 17:45
Needless to say, tons of rain, a breeze (30-60 mph) and alcohol will not stop Fantasy Fest. In fact, it might enhance it. Models are now updated below, it has fizzled somewhat so let’s pray no one gets hurt.
October 26, 2011 07:50
So far, so good for my location but it could be a nasty surprise for those who are spending thousands of dollars to dress insanely or not at all and intoxicate themselves this week at Fantasy Fest in Key West, FL. The storm appears to be intensifying again before striking Cancun and Cozumel which is a shame as the recovery from Wilma years ago was somewhat complete and this could be another setback if the storm lingers for too long there. The cone of death has not shifted much but the timing of the cold front dropping down will determine the storm’s path towards Florida. I’ll update the model graphics with the 1800 runs this afternoon.
October 25, 2011 17:10
Just ouch. Now I’m in the 5 day cone of death although the local forecasters think this is a Key West-Naples event if anything. Let’s hope NHC doesn’t miss on this one as I don’t feel like boarding up windows!
October 24, 2011 18:30
Woah Nellie!
The 1700 update after recon shows Rina becoming a Cat 1 hurricane and the path has been nudged slightly to the north heading out over the 3-5 day period. Buckle up South Florida, you could have a really sucky Halloween.
October 24, 2011 10:30 ET
Just when I thought it was safe to call it a season, even with the cooler water temps, the tropics decide to do what they always do:
The unexpected.
Stay tuned if you live in Florida as this is the time of year when storms form and generally track towards our state as this one is expected to be a hurricane within the next five days.
Satellite photos will update automatically from NOAA:
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NCAR/SWFMUD MODEL PLOTS
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(click to enlarge/reduce charts)
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TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
000
WTNT33 KNHC 270833
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011
…RINA WEAKENS AS IT HEADS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.8N 86.9W
ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB…29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS…AND RINA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES…140 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
OBSERVATIONS IS 988 MB…29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL…RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.
STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
===============================================
TROPICAL STORM DISCUSSION
===============================================
000
WTNT43 KNHC 270835
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011
RINA HAS BECOME LESS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS…WITH THE EXTENT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS DIMINISHING
WITHIN A RAGGED-LOOKING CDO FEATURE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME
WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE…AND INDEED THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW BARELY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH
WITH THE PEAK SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KT. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS SET…PERHAPS GENEROUSLY…AT 65 KT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER RINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE…
AND THIS ALONG WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MORE WEAKENING THEN
THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR DAYS 1-3 AND IS THE SAME AT DAYS 4-5. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS MODEL FORECAST.
RINA IS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA AT ABOUT 325/5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN 36-48 HOURS…THE
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF RINA. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD…THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY
LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…BUT NOT NEARLY
AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 18.8N 86.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 19.8N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 21.0N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/1800Z 21.6N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 21.9N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 21.5N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 21.0N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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