BLS

Commercial Paper Issuance Continues to Indicate no Real Economic Recovery

by John Galt February 5, 2015 22:25 ET Before my readers ask why this is an important indicator of the economic health of the American economy, this explanation from the Federal Reserve about this particular statistic explains what it is and what it means: About Commercial Paper Commercial paper (CP) consists of short-term, promissory notes issued primarily by corporations. Maturities range up to 270 days but average about 30 days. Many companies use CP to raise cash needed for current transactions, and many find it to be a lower-cost alternative to…


10/5 Non-Farm Payrolls Projection: +219,000 Unemployment Rate of 7.8%

  by John Galt October 5, 2012 05:00 ET   The headline says it all.   I have come up with this calculation because the BLS under the direction of the Obama re-election team, will deliberately overstate the number of temporary holiday related positions created in retail, transportation, wholesale, and automotive by moving forward the normal number of hires for Christmas by one full month. By averaging those individuals who will have part time and full time work from October through December and lowering the projected number of people looking for…


America’s Economic Employment System is Collapsing

  by John Galt July 8, 2012 21:30 ET   I realize that maybe 0.0005% of my readers have the time to dig up these obscure statistics and that there are smart asses who think that the masses follow this data but the truth is that is why I provide it. The smart asses proclaim “anyone can read it” yet the truth is the MSM and BSM (Bull S**t media) wants to keep the average American from seeing the truth and that is because the truth hurts.   Thus the question…


The Unemployment Data You Were not Supposed to See

  by John Galt July 8, 2012 20:45 ET   If you read the mainstream media, pro-Obama websites like “Business Insider” or “CNBC.com,” you might be under the idea that this past Friday’s unemployment report was no big deal, housing has bottomed, and the transportation industry is indicating that growth is back in this anemic economy if you read the headlines and did not do your own research.   Well hell, I’m here to do the work that the mainstream media won’t do and in this first of two parts of…


All you need to know about today’s NFP Report: U-6 Not Seasonally Adjusted SURGES higher 0.8%

  by John Galt July 6, 2012 08:50 ET   The chart below is all you need to know about today’s report. Non-seasonally adjusted U-6 surged from 14.3% in May to 15.1% in June. Add that in with the total lack of job creation and the second wave of the “Great” recession appears to be right over the horizon.    




CPI is “Tame” but not for the reasons the Media would have you believe

by John Galt May 15, 2012 22:30 ET   The usual suspects are at their propaganda inspired best with the monthly BLS report on consumer prices. The mainstream media has the usual headlines:May 15, 2012 22:30 ET   US Consumer-Price Index Unchanged; Core Rate Climbs 0.2% US April consumer prices flat as gasoline drops US consumer prices flat as gas costs fall   In other words, gas distorted reality as the reality is that the impacts on things the average American need or use every month increased except for electrical utilities…


12.02 U.S. Market Preview: Time for the Monthly Fiction

By John Galt December 2, 2011 – 05:30 ET I’ll keep this one brief with some numbers: Gold should head north of $1780 today, fail and pull back at the close. The BLS NFP dart board prediction from myself: +163 K U-6 Remains above 15.2% S&P 500 approaches 1265-1266 on light volume and starts to fail before the close. The main thing is to watch the 3 month US Treasury and the reaction of the financials to the drip, drip, drip of news out of the Eurozone. More after lunch as…


No Picture

See what happens when I make a Happy Happy Prediction: HUGE BLS Miss on Employment

By John Galt July 8, 2011 Uh, sell? Wow, I butchered that prediction but see what happens Mr. President when I try to follow the herd and read into the consensus that you’re BLS is going to fabricate a happy-happy joy-joy number? Only 18,000 net non-farm jobs added but I did nail the unemployment rate of 9.2% per the report from the BLS this morning. Look at the pretty red candlestick on the S&P futures: So much for the ADP report having a clue, once again. Meanwhile some “highlights” er lowlights…


My June Employment Prediction: +185K, 9.2% Unemployment Rate

By John Galt July 8, 2011 For my prediction as the financial media is a tingle just waiting to predict Dow 15K and have an Obamagasm over this great economy…. June data will show a +185,000 non-farms increase, mostly in part-time and Birth/Death creation. The unemployment rate will creep up to 9.2% due to a slight increase in the participation rate. Wages up 0.1% and hours worked relatively flat. Buckle up as the insiders are anticipating a strong number also as reflected by the current move in the US Dollar: (from…


No Picture

CPI Necessities Chart for April 2011 – It’s Transitory

By John Galt May 15, 2011 It is becoming somewhat spooky when the words of Ben Bernanke haunt the mind, week after week, thus I shall do the best that I can to escape this transitory trap he has placed most commentators into. Except in this case the “official” CPI report from last Friday was without a doubt seriously a transition before a major commodity crash brings the prices down the BLS creates out of thin air and allows the Fed even more room to monetize every living thing, dead thing,…


No Picture

The Unemployment Numbers the BLS Doesn’t Want to Talk About

  By John Galt February 7, 2011 The “experts” sprung into action last Friday with the release of the hilarious piece of monthly fiction known as the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Summary. The banter was to blame the weather, the lazy workers who didn’t try to find a job, and of course the recovery for the abysmal showing but the reality when one looks at it was stated best by of course, Rick Santell at CNBC: Needless to say Zandi (from the video above) must be shopping for a…


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