DOLLAR

Despite Saudi and Russian Bluff, Oil Supply is Still Overwhelming Price

by John Galt October 10, 2016 19:45 ET Despite the recent recovery in oil prices back above $50 per bbl (Brent chart courtesy of NetDania): The problem however is that oil supply is not reflected by the price. The latest results from the International Energy Agency (IEA) through the 2nd quarter of this year shows little if any evidence of a draw down in supply: Then tonight this fascinating story tonight from the UK Express: Something very odd is being hidden in the middle of the Atlantic ocean and Gulf of…


10.09 Saudi Stock Market Plunges another 2.2%

by John Galt October 9, 2016 08:45 ET So much for the idea that this rally will carry the world into a new camel, er, bull market. (chart via Bloomberg) This is not a predictor for the future, but if it is a hint as to how disturbed the force is with the potential for World War III starting any moment, world markets could drop far and fast without much warning.


UK POUND EXPERIENCES FLASH CRASH: Drops 6% in 2 minutes!

by John Galt October 6, 2016 19:30 ET I don’t know what happened but will effort to find out but suddenly, just after trading started in New Zealand, the FOREX markets imploded with the British Pound Sterling collapsing 6% from 126 to 119 in less than 2 minutes: More as news comes in..stay tuned as it has recovered to 123 but there is something major happening. UPDATE – From the UK Telegraph, worth a read: Pound skids to fresh 31-year low and FTSE 100 closes below 7,000 on fears of hard…


What the Federal Reserve Really Said Today: We Despise Trump

by John Galt September 21, 2016 19:20 ET The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued their statement on interest rates and the always wrong economic outlook at 2 p.m. today (From the Federal Reserve webpage): Release Date: September 21, 2016 For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate…


When You See Stories Like This, the Market Top is In

by John Galt September 16, 2016 19:50 ET When you see stories like this one (via Business Insider): Yeah, it usually means the market top is in. When the pie in the sky insanity after years of predicting market crashes and booms winds down to the end of the a credit and business cycle, the insane stories start to appear attributing rallies to elections, Issac Newton, Trump’s belly button lint, or the length and duration of Hillary Clinton’s Parkinson seizures. The truth sucks but God forbid the pump and dumpers tell…


No Matter What Janet Yellen Says, She Will Trigger this Outcome

by John Galt August 26, 2016 05:15 ET Maximum pain is on the way. What is about to hit could have been avoided, but knowing the pragmatic nature of central bankers they will simply state what they think the markets and world wants to hear. This time it is different. Between what she says at Jackson Hole today, which will be released at 10 a.m. ET, and the news slowly leaking out of Europe, by the time we get to the October surprise for the markets, all hell will be breaking…



Welcome Back to the Stock Market Toppy, Top, Top, of Toppiness

by John Galt August 15, 2016 20:15 ET Yeah, okay, maybe not the best version of the song, but I think my readers understand my point. The S&P 500 closed at another already record super duper CNBCgasm high today on low volume and a very questionable economic and technical structure. Just like it did in 2007. While the insanity with in the major indexes reflect a mania, a bubble, a parabolic blow off, etc., etc., the off the radar investment warning signs are everywhere with dark pool deals which would make…


Marc Faber Sends a Chilling Warning: S&P 500 Could Decline 50%

by John Galt August 9, 2016 18:40 ET Marc Faber, often referred to as “Dr. Doom” among many other nicknames from the bulls who hate it when he turns super bearish (and some when he turns bullish for that matter), was on CNBC earlier today and dropped this bomb on the pump-and-dump stock infomercial network: For the mathematically challenged and government employees who might have heard what he said but failed to comprehend, that would put the S&P 500 around 1100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average somewhere between 9,000 and…


6 Years Later the PIIGS and Europe Still Wallow in Bear Markets

by John Galt July 31, 2016 10:00 ET Everything is great. All is quiet on the Western Front, Eastern Front, and Main Street economies with sluggish growth but new all time highs in key equity markets promoted for television purposes. The problems in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain are solved because CNBCCNNFBNFNCBBG does not want to cover them on a daily basis. Hence it’s all awesome: Right? Despite the fact that the over indebted United States has managed to hyperinflate its way into a new all time high in equity…


Japan Poops the Bed

by John Galt July 29, 2016 00:20ET The drunk squirrel used to headline this story has nothing to do with Japanese Monetary Policy. Nor does the pink haired Japanese chick. Or do they? From the Bank of Japan minutes ago (via Reuters): BOJ eases policy with modest increase in ETF buying The Bank of Japan expanded monetary stimulus on Friday through a modest increase in purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF), yielding to pressure from the government and financial markets for bolder action to spur growth and accelerate inflation towards its 2…


There Has Been a Disturbance in the Force or Yen-Dollar Actually

by John Galt July 26, 2016 04:55 ET While equities continue to perform the high wire act like a cocaine laden airplane flying around with the pilot using his cargo, Forex markets continue to occasionally flash warning signs that may indeed intensify with all of the major central bank activity happening this week. This morning there was a disturbance in the force: This either indicates an expected lack of action by the Fed possibly, which is logical, worse an inept course of action by the Bank of Japan or something much…


If China’s Big Mama’s are Buying Precious Metals, Why Aren’t YOU?

by John Galt July 17, 2016 21:45 ET The “Big Mothers” in China are buying gold in much larger quantities because they expect global instability and currency rate disruptions No, no, no, not that Big Mama, more like the women shopping here: The truth is astonishing as this story tonight from the South China Morning Post reveals: Hong Kong hits the jackpot as mainland China’s ‘Big mothers’ hoard gold amid troubled times Excerpt: Chinese customs data released last week showed imports from Hong Kong to the mainland increased in May mainly…


Meet the Swaption Another $25 Trillion Time Bomb

by John Galt July 11, 2016 00:15 ET Wow. Another all time high in the S&P 500, just like 2007: In June of 2007, the S&P 500 hit an all time high price even as Bear Stearns was bailing out two major hedge funds which imploded due to the real estate crisis and complex derivative investment instruments (via the Wall Street Journal in 2007): Two Big Funds At Bear Stearns Face Shutdown Two big hedge funds at Bear Stearns Cos. were close to being shut down last night as a rescue…


The Shellacking Continues as Britain is Just the Tip of the Real Estate Iceberg

by John Galt July 5, 2016 20:50 ET The absolutely bull whipping of investors in foreign real estate continued today as 2 more property funds in the United Kingdom froze redemptions after Standard Life started the ball rolling on July 4th. M&G became the third company to shut down redemptions from its property fund as it stated (via Bloomberg): “Investor redemptions in the fund have risen markedly because of the high levels of uncertainty in the U.K. commercial property market since the outcome of the European Union referendum. Redemptions have now…


The Smart Money is Betting on More Economic Pain Today

by John Galt July 5, 2016 05:15 ET The smart money, as I warned about last week, is ignoring the so-called low volume rally and fleeing to safety. Need proof? Check these two charts out: If the US 10 Year breaks below the 1.35% yield, odds are it will fly down to 1.25% then on to a flat 1% yield. Regardless of what the bubbleheads say on financial television this will be a massive shift of billions of dollars out of potential investment pools for equities which will further squeeze a…


Brexit is the Bear Stearns/Lehman Bros. Moment

by John Galt July 4, 2016 17:40 ET The United States equity and bond markets resume trading on Tuesday July 5th, but whoa be it for those who are unprepared. Tonight the breaking news in the English media indicates that Brexit is not only a Bear Stearns v2.0 Moment as ZeroHedge puts it, but in fact could be a lot worse. The details have made it to the front pages of the U.K. press, starting with the Guardian: Standard Life shuts property fund amid rush of Brexit withdrawals Excerpted: Investors in…


Ignore Today’s Stock Market, Watch the Smart Money

by John Galt June 28, 2016 21:30 ET Poindexter and the rest of the nerds are trying to send you a message. Can you hear them? Maybe this will help: The oversold market finally had a dead cat bounce. Why does anyone with a brain call it that? Look at the volume last Friday: Today’s “rally” was not even close to the panic selling levels nor yesterday’s volume totals. So what indicators are telling the truth about the equity markets? The smart money; which does it every time during every crash…



06.27 Market Deathburger: The EuroCarnage Continues after Brexit

by John Galt June 26, 2 016 15:30 ET I shall keep this as a running update as trading and markets open. Needless to say, currency markets in Asia have opened and the carnage continues unabated so look for Bank of Japan and Swiss intervention soon enough. 05:00 ET – While equity futures are not indicating panic, the bond market is screaming a move into safety. This could be another long day and the key level to watch on the S&P 500 is 2020 as a violation of that figure at…


Middle East Markets Hit Hard but Stabilized on Sunday after Brexit Vote

by John Galt June 26, 2016 11:00 ET The running theme in equity markets around the world has been to panic, sell, and pray for some sort of government intervention. In the Middle East that is no different except the intervention must come from the monarchies not from central banksters and indeed that is what happened throughout the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations today. The interesting pattern in all the charts is massive selling on the open and some recovery towards the close however in those nations where the royal families…


Today’s Market Action was Ugly but not the Big One

by John Galt June 24, 2016 20:15 ET With much respect to the Sex Pistols for creating this song just for events like today: But this wasn’t the big market crash that the bears or for that matter, the bulls, had hoped to get out of the way. The NYSE volume was 10:1 + to the downside, but not the NASDAQ VOLUME nor the advance/declines (data via WSJ.com): Meanwhile the bellwethers are signaling trouble ahead. In honor of Brexit let us just say they are sinking like the old Great Britain…



06.24 US MARKET DEATHBURGER: Black Friday Brexit Burgers Now Being Served

by John Galt June 24, 2016 02:00 ET I have never been so happy to be so wrong in all my life. I honest to God did not think my limey crazy assed brethren had the jewels to vote for Brexit, but they did. If TPTB do not stop them through a technicality or loophole in the Parliament, then this move is nothing more than a vindication of the insanity we are witnessing in American politics where an unconvicted felon is allowed to run against a reality TV show millionaire/billionaire. Thus…




Bellwether Weekly Update: AAPL & GS Clank Again this Past Week

by John Galt June 19, 2016 21:30 ET   So another week and another warning from my bellwether stocks, Apple and Goldman Sachs. There is no serious middle class consumer demand and there appears to be no desire to invest in further expansion of companies unless it is to use cash on the balance sheet to buy smaller companies like Microsoft did with LinkedIn. Thus based on futures tonight we might get a dead iPhone bounce or maybe even a better dead Bankster bounce from Goldman but in the end, the…


MSCI will NOT Include China A-Shares in Emerging Market Index

by John Galt June 14, 2016 17:14 ET WOW! This will not help the Shanghai markets tonight and probably will cause massive tankage in Hong Kong also. Via CNBC: Key MSCI emerging markets index rejects Chinese mainland stocks, again MSCI on Tuesday said it would delay inclusion of the mainland-traded Chinese A shares in its key emerging market index. In a release, MSCI said investors needed more time to assess the effectiveness of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program (QFII) investment quota allocation, capital mobility policy changes and the effectiveness of…


German 10 Yr Bund Yield Goes Negative for First Time in History

by John Galt June 14, 2016 04:50 ET Just when anyone in the investing world thought it couldn’t get any more nuts than it has been, German government bonds send the most alarming signal ever with their 10 year Bund yield dropping into negative territory for the first time in history: Meanwhile, US 10 Year Treasuries are now have a yield with a 1.5 handle this morning: If the US 10 year breaks below 1.50% that usually correlates with a stock market some 10-15% below current levels. This really ties the…



Market Trouble Ahead as the Bellwethers Break

by John Galt June 12, 2016 19:40 ET I’m going to keep this short, simple, but loaded with graphs so everyone can see what happened last week to the 2 bellwether stocks in the equities markets, Apple, Inc. and Goldman Sachs. Why I have tagged those two issues is irrelevant; I just advise everyone to remember 2007-2009 when General Motors and IBM were the bellwethers and what happened to the markets after they broke down. Both of these stocks are widely held, usually reliable leaders in bull markets and vice-versa, and…


China Drops a Silent Economic Bomb: Hints at Bankruptcy Rules for Financial Sector

by John Galt June 12, 2016 17:55 ET The one thing that foreign investors had always been able to count on with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the Communist Party of China was that no matter how bad the conditions in their financial sector may get, the government and PBOC will always find away to restructure the debts or ensure the continued operation of the entities to avoid an outright default. Sunday, during the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, that theory was turned on its head. From the South China…


It’s Not 2008, Don’t Worry, It’s Fine!

by John Galt June 1, 2016 21:30 ET The stock market is possibly poised to break out to new highs, just like it threatened to do in 2007. As the rest of the economy was in shambles, the hucksters in financial media and so-called stock advisors made a cottage industry on selling to willing pension funds, speculators, and individual investors the stocks of the very corporations and banks that they knew were already technically insolvent. Then came the Obama administration after the crash and he was presented with a deal by…


Didn’t Sell in May? Perhaps you Should Have

by John Galt May 31, 2016 05:00 ET As the “sell in May and go away” meme is now officially dead thanks to a Fed pump, dump, and hump the market back towards new highs on low volume, one must ask if the smart money knew what they were doing as they sold into every major rally to rid their portfolios of large blocks of stocks that are not participating in this so-called economic miracle rally promoted by the financial media. Two things however stood out to this blogger in May…


Another 20% Dollar Tree Inflationary Warning

by John Galt May 2, 2016 20:20 ET A little over a decade ago, I pointed out the hypocrisy of product size inflation in an old article about my Dollar Tree inflation indicator. I noted, of course simple things like 4 packs of batteries being changed to 3, 16 oz. of dry cereal being reduced to 12 oz., and candy bars being reduced from 6 oz. to microscopic specs of something wrapped in paper. Today, I encountered something amazing at the U.S. discount retailer the Dollar Tree which should alert everyone…


Warren Buffett Sees Derivatives as a Potential “Time Bomb” for Financial Markets

by John Galt May 1, 2016 22:40 ET Weird. CNBC did not report on this subject on their web page. Marketwatch did not make a big deal about this story either: The Financial Times of London, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, hell, even that rag the New York Times Business section do not even have this headline: Buffett sees derivatives as potential “time bomb” in financial markets So my American readers can thank the Communist Chinese government’s semi-official official propaganda outlet, Xinhua?!?!?! Yup: OMAHA, Nebraska, April 30 (Xinhua) — Warren Buffett, Berkshire…


$1294.90

by John Galt May 1, 2016 19:05 ET Gold closed on Friday with a price of $1294.90. Why is that significant? Because it should alert any sane person that a long term trend line has been broken but more importantly, the three month consolidation and base building period is now over. First a little chartistic charsima courtesy of gold: Way, way, back when Jim Cramer was telling us it was still safe to own Bear Stearns, the precious metals markets experienced a similar consolidation and decline following a rally above $600…


04.27 23:05 ET: Bank of Japan Screws Yellen, TAKES NO ACTION!

by John Galt April 27, 2016 23:05 ET Japan has elected to maintain its current levels of funding with rates and stimulus unchanged. Kuroda basically just told Janet Yellen to go fawk herself. The Japanese Yen just soared against the U.S. Dollar on the announcement (screenshot via BloombergTV): The candlestick on the 1 minute chart via NetDania was even more impressive: Meanwhile in the U.S., S&P and Dow futures, well, shit the bed on the announcement: Everyone knew something was up when Kuroda delayed the announcement but to see this type…


The Fed Goes Full Retard Leaving Investors Totally Befuddled

by John Galt April 27, 2016 22:30 ET James Grant summed up today’s FOMC meeting better than any other talking head today (via Bloomberg-TV): “They remind me in the aggregate of the most novice of novice retail investors” That actually sums up the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee quite nicely. What did they say today to trigger this response? From the Federal Reserve website: Press Release Release Date: April 27, 2016 For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor…


04.18 0500 Market Update: Cue the Pump Monkeys, OPEC panic Fading

by John Galt April 18, 2016 05:00 ET Last night’s Asian session was interesting as the Japanese earthquakes and OPEC disaster in Doha provided the deflationary double whammy which scared investors out of Tokyo and Shanghai with sizable drops in those markets(charts via YahooFinance): With a 3.4% drop that was pretty nasty. Shanghai was down 1.44%: Meanwhile, US equity futures have recovered substantially since last night’s initial fall as the central bankers began intervening when Europe opened:   With Europe beginning to recover and crude oil prices pausing in their declines…


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