S&P 500

When You See Stories Like This, the Market Top is In

by John Galt September 16, 2016 19:50 ET When you see stories like this one (via Business Insider): Yeah, it usually means the market top is in. When the pie in the sky insanity after years of predicting market crashes and booms winds down to the end of the a credit and business cycle, the insane stories start to appear attributing rallies to elections, Issac Newton, Trump’s belly button lint, or the length and duration of Hillary Clinton’s Parkinson seizures. The truth sucks but God forbid the pump and dumpers tell…


The Bull Market is Now Officially Over

by John Galt September 10, 2016 22:20 ET Before I go into any great details as to why I think this horrid bull market is over, albeit horrid only because it is Federal Reserve purchased and promoted bull, I wish to review the markets at the end of trading this past Friday, September 9 (courtesy of the Wall Street Journal). How bad was it really? -NYSE down ratio of 13:1 on 4.3 billion shares -Nasdaq down radio 6:1 on 2.18 billion shares meaning it could have been worse -Dow Transports down…


No Matter What Janet Yellen Says, She Will Trigger this Outcome

by John Galt August 26, 2016 05:15 ET Maximum pain is on the way. What is about to hit could have been avoided, but knowing the pragmatic nature of central bankers they will simply state what they think the markets and world wants to hear. This time it is different. Between what she says at Jackson Hole today, which will be released at 10 a.m. ET, and the news slowly leaking out of Europe, by the time we get to the October surprise for the markets, all hell will be breaking…


Welcome Back to the Stock Market Toppy, Top, Top, of Toppiness

by John Galt August 15, 2016 20:15 ET Yeah, okay, maybe not the best version of the song, but I think my readers understand my point. The S&P 500 closed at another already record super duper CNBCgasm high today on low volume and a very questionable economic and technical structure. Just like it did in 2007. While the insanity with in the major indexes reflect a mania, a bubble, a parabolic blow off, etc., etc., the off the radar investment warning signs are everywhere with dark pool deals which would make…


Marc Faber Sends a Chilling Warning: S&P 500 Could Decline 50%

by John Galt August 9, 2016 18:40 ET Marc Faber, often referred to as “Dr. Doom” among many other nicknames from the bulls who hate it when he turns super bearish (and some when he turns bullish for that matter), was on CNBC earlier today and dropped this bomb on the pump-and-dump stock infomercial network: For the mathematically challenged and government employees who might have heard what he said but failed to comprehend, that would put the S&P 500 around 1100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average somewhere between 9,000 and…


6 Years Later the PIIGS and Europe Still Wallow in Bear Markets

by John Galt July 31, 2016 10:00 ET Everything is great. All is quiet on the Western Front, Eastern Front, and Main Street economies with sluggish growth but new all time highs in key equity markets promoted for television purposes. The problems in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain are solved because CNBCCNNFBNFNCBBG does not want to cover them on a daily basis. Hence it’s all awesome: Right? Despite the fact that the over indebted United States has managed to hyperinflate its way into a new all time high in equity…


07.22 AAPL and GS Bellwether Update: 200 DMA too Much to Handle

by John Galt July 24, 2016 16:30 ET The market again continued to roll to new all time highs but don’t listen to me, the crazy people have officially taken over the asylum. No volume, no conviction, and the world is going nuts. Think about this; the last time we saw market moves like this happened in 2007, 2008, and shockingly 2015. There could be a signal from the action in the bellwethers this week or not however. The markets are sending numerous warning signs about liquidity, especially in the credit…


July 13th Bellwether Update: Swimming in Sand

by John Galt July 13, 2016 05:15 ET Wooo, it’s time to party again!!! Break out the Dow 10K hats, brush them off, put a piece of white tape over them and write Dow 20K on there because that’s where we are heading. Or not. Being the contrarian that I am, I look for patterns which remind me of historical events or eras where the markets and human behavior attempt to replicate past events so as to create something new, or larger. However, since this is the first time in world…


Deutsche Bank Implodes to New Record Low Prices in Europe

by John Galt July 6, 2016 05:30 ET Whatever caused the snap, kerplunk, or “BOOM” at 04:30 ET this morning, it has continued with Deutsche Bank deteriorating rapidly now down over 5% in European trading: Whatever is happening, it has driven the German 10 Year Bund to a record -0.20% and the US 10 Year Treasury yield to new record lows close to 1.320%! Somewhere the smart money knows there is a major shoe about to drop, be it Italy, the United States, or Asia and they understand that it will…


The Smart Money is Betting on More Economic Pain Today

by John Galt July 5, 2016 05:15 ET The smart money, as I warned about last week, is ignoring the so-called low volume rally and fleeing to safety. Need proof? Check these two charts out: If the US 10 Year breaks below the 1.35% yield, odds are it will fly down to 1.25% then on to a flat 1% yield. Regardless of what the bubbleheads say on financial television this will be a massive shift of billions of dollars out of potential investment pools for equities which will further squeeze a…


Stock Market Bellwether Update: Going Nowhere Fast

by John Galt July 4, 2016 13:30 ET As America celebrates our 240th birthday and the central banksters of the world celebrate their short squeeze rally of the past five sessions, the truth about where this stock market is somewhat murky. I listen to many of the stock market “call in” radio shows not for advice; but to gauge the sentiment of the sheeple, those poor, stupid suckers who held on to Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, and General Motors because some “broker” on the radio told an old lady that they…


06.27 Market Deathburger: The EuroCarnage Continues after Brexit

by John Galt June 26, 2 016 15:30 ET I shall keep this as a running update as trading and markets open. Needless to say, currency markets in Asia have opened and the carnage continues unabated so look for Bank of Japan and Swiss intervention soon enough. 05:00 ET – While equity futures are not indicating panic, the bond market is screaming a move into safety. This could be another long day and the key level to watch on the S&P 500 is 2020 as a violation of that figure at…


Today’s Market Action was Ugly but not the Big One

by John Galt June 24, 2016 20:15 ET With much respect to the Sex Pistols for creating this song just for events like today: But this wasn’t the big market crash that the bears or for that matter, the bulls, had hoped to get out of the way. The NYSE volume was 10:1 + to the downside, but not the NASDAQ VOLUME nor the advance/declines (data via WSJ.com): Meanwhile the bellwethers are signaling trouble ahead. In honor of Brexit let us just say they are sinking like the old Great Britain…



06.24 US MARKET DEATHBURGER: Black Friday Brexit Burgers Now Being Served

by John Galt June 24, 2016 02:00 ET I have never been so happy to be so wrong in all my life. I honest to God did not think my limey crazy assed brethren had the jewels to vote for Brexit, but they did. If TPTB do not stop them through a technicality or loophole in the Parliament, then this move is nothing more than a vindication of the insanity we are witnessing in American politics where an unconvicted felon is allowed to run against a reality TV show millionaire/billionaire. Thus…



Monday was NOT a Good Day for the Stock Market

by John Galt June 21, 2016 05:00 ET The stock market on Monday was a lot like the Trump campaign; it looked good from the outside but when you lifted the hood it was a complete and total wreck. Yesterday was a complete and total technical disaster. Huge rally on light volume, selling into each hourly rally, then failing to close anywhere near the highs with selling into the close. This morning futures are up but once the gap is filled in the 2091-2097 range look for more selling as anyone…


Bellwether Weekly Update: AAPL & GS Clank Again this Past Week

by John Galt June 19, 2016 21:30 ET   So another week and another warning from my bellwether stocks, Apple and Goldman Sachs. There is no serious middle class consumer demand and there appears to be no desire to invest in further expansion of companies unless it is to use cash on the balance sheet to buy smaller companies like Microsoft did with LinkedIn. Thus based on futures tonight we might get a dead iPhone bounce or maybe even a better dead Bankster bounce from Goldman but in the end, the…


MSCI will NOT Include China A-Shares in Emerging Market Index

by John Galt June 14, 2016 17:14 ET WOW! This will not help the Shanghai markets tonight and probably will cause massive tankage in Hong Kong also. Via CNBC: Key MSCI emerging markets index rejects Chinese mainland stocks, again MSCI on Tuesday said it would delay inclusion of the mainland-traded Chinese A shares in its key emerging market index. In a release, MSCI said investors needed more time to assess the effectiveness of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program (QFII) investment quota allocation, capital mobility policy changes and the effectiveness of…



Market Trouble Ahead as the Bellwethers Break

by John Galt June 12, 2016 19:40 ET I’m going to keep this short, simple, but loaded with graphs so everyone can see what happened last week to the 2 bellwether stocks in the equities markets, Apple, Inc. and Goldman Sachs. Why I have tagged those two issues is irrelevant; I just advise everyone to remember 2007-2009 when General Motors and IBM were the bellwethers and what happened to the markets after they broke down. Both of these stocks are widely held, usually reliable leaders in bull markets and vice-versa, and…


It’s Not 2008, Don’t Worry, It’s Fine!

by John Galt June 1, 2016 21:30 ET The stock market is possibly poised to break out to new highs, just like it threatened to do in 2007. As the rest of the economy was in shambles, the hucksters in financial media and so-called stock advisors made a cottage industry on selling to willing pension funds, speculators, and individual investors the stocks of the very corporations and banks that they knew were already technically insolvent. Then came the Obama administration after the crash and he was presented with a deal by…


Didn’t Sell in May? Perhaps you Should Have

by John Galt May 31, 2016 05:00 ET As the “sell in May and go away” meme is now officially dead thanks to a Fed pump, dump, and hump the market back towards new highs on low volume, one must ask if the smart money knew what they were doing as they sold into every major rally to rid their portfolios of large blocks of stocks that are not participating in this so-called economic miracle rally promoted by the financial media. Two things however stood out to this blogger in May…


Warren Buffett Sees Derivatives as a Potential “Time Bomb” for Financial Markets

by John Galt May 1, 2016 22:40 ET Weird. CNBC did not report on this subject on their web page. Marketwatch did not make a big deal about this story either: The Financial Times of London, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, hell, even that rag the New York Times Business section do not even have this headline: Buffett sees derivatives as potential “time bomb” in financial markets So my American readers can thank the Communist Chinese government’s semi-official official propaganda outlet, Xinhua?!?!?! Yup: OMAHA, Nebraska, April 30 (Xinhua) — Warren Buffett, Berkshire…


04.27 23:05 ET: Bank of Japan Screws Yellen, TAKES NO ACTION!

by John Galt April 27, 2016 23:05 ET Japan has elected to maintain its current levels of funding with rates and stimulus unchanged. Kuroda basically just told Janet Yellen to go fawk herself. The Japanese Yen just soared against the U.S. Dollar on the announcement (screenshot via BloombergTV): The candlestick on the 1 minute chart via NetDania was even more impressive: Meanwhile in the U.S., S&P and Dow futures, well, shit the bed on the announcement: Everyone knew something was up when Kuroda delayed the announcement but to see this type…


The Fed Goes Full Retard Leaving Investors Totally Befuddled

by John Galt April 27, 2016 22:30 ET James Grant summed up today’s FOMC meeting better than any other talking head today (via Bloomberg-TV): “They remind me in the aggregate of the most novice of novice retail investors” That actually sums up the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee quite nicely. What did they say today to trigger this response? From the Federal Reserve website: Press Release Release Date: April 27, 2016 For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor…


04.18 0500 Market Update: Cue the Pump Monkeys, OPEC panic Fading

by John Galt April 18, 2016 05:00 ET Last night’s Asian session was interesting as the Japanese earthquakes and OPEC disaster in Doha provided the deflationary double whammy which scared investors out of Tokyo and Shanghai with sizable drops in those markets(charts via YahooFinance): With a 3.4% drop that was pretty nasty. Shanghai was down 1.44%: Meanwhile, US equity futures have recovered substantially since last night’s initial fall as the central bankers began intervening when Europe opened:   With Europe beginning to recover and crude oil prices pausing in their declines…


04.17 DeathCamelBurger Edition: Saudis Choke in Doha, WTI Crashes below $40 on the Open, Stock Futures Falling

by John Galt April 17, 2016 19:15ET Apparently the House of Saud would rather eat their rides than finance them as today’s Doha, Qatar OPEC meeting ended in discord and disaster for the now flailing for a reason to exist organization. The results? WTI-Crude opened up down over 6% along with Brent and created a huge disaster for the longs that enjoyed the short covering rally of the past few weeks (Charts courtesy of Finviz.com/prices delayed 15 mins):   Note: WTI rolled over to the June 2016 contract starting today; on…


04.17 14:30 ET BREAKING NEWS: OPEC Doha Meeting Ends with No Agreement

by John Galt April 17, 2016 14:30 ET In a not so shocking development, the Saudis and Russians could not find middle ground for agreement to freeze oil production until October of this year as Saudi Arabia insisted on some sort of output reduction guarantees from Iran. The news just broke in the past 20 minutes, here is Reuters breaking news on the meetings: OPEC and non-OPEC producers on Sunday failed to reach a deal to freeze oil output, three oil industry sources told Reuters. Sources said OPEC producers had told…


03.08 Warm up the Grill: Deathburger Markets have Returned as Asia Craters

by John Galt March 7, 2016 21:30 ET Never let Janet Yellen light your grill for a Deathburger. So Japanese GDP was worse (not a shock),  China is a clusterTrump (not a shock), and the Asian economy is incinerating investors like there is no tomorrow because there is no tomorrow. How is this suddenly playing out tonight? Japan as of this posting is down about 311 or 1.84% (via YahooFinance):   OUCH. China is not doing much better, now down around 2.8%: US Futures on the S&P 500 e-Minis have turned…


Happy Leap Year Day Spooky Video Courtesy of a Major Hedge Fund

by John Galt February 29 2016 17:20 ET Remember this scene from the movie Margin Call? Perhaps if you are not familiar with the movie, you should be. Because the bank it was roughly based on does exist and was bailed out by the U.S. taxpayer, gambled on and won on a Federal Reserve and U.S. Government funded phony recovery, and worse, now is impervious as it is THE bank that it is too big to fail. Why is this relevant today when employment is allegedly booming, the economy growing at…



RED ALERT: S&P 500 Action Today means Assume the Crash Position!

by John Galt February 23, 2016 22:15 ET So how bad has the past week’s action been in equities? Even Apple can’t get it’s app up! The first warning sign of what we are about to endure was issued back in August of 2015, but the financial MSM gave cover to leading stocks like AAPL because they HAD to maintain the illusion of economic expansion and the bull market would continue for political reasons. A total economic implosion or recession is bad for business and the big money needed time to…


02.11 U.S. MARKETWATCH: It’s going to be a Bloodbath if S&P 1780 Does not Hold

by John Galt February 11, 2016 05:30 ET With each new day, a new crisis in deflationary acceleration occurs and thus markets retreat closer and closer to danger levels which could trigger massive crashes. Today’s headlines are no different: Swedish national bank, the Riksbank cuts rates FURTHER into negative interest rate territory from -0.35% to -0.50% The Japanese Yen has risen further against the USD now down over 400 pips to 111 since last night Gold is up over $20 as everyone appears to be abandoning fiat currencies and returning to…


And the Chinese GDP Number Is: A Miss, 6.8% vs 6.9% projected

by John Galt January 18, 2016 21:10 ET Bloomberg just broadcast the number moments ago: With bad good news like this, apparently the expectation is the Federal Reserve will respond and bail out the world. All is well, remain calm. Of course markets are rallying expecting a massive central bank bail out rally tomorrow where the Fed buys SPY options like Bill Clinton rents interns. Thus remain calm, all is well, and short into these rallies to make even more money (allegedly): Of course the US Dollar Index calls BS and…


01.11 Oh No Not Again Market DEATBURGER Watch: Paging Janet Yellen, Economy Crapping out on Line 3

by John Galt January 10, 2016 18:50 ET So it’s Sunday night once again. My DFS teams all went to hell in a hand basket yesterday because players with concussions, blown up knees and ankles, and torn groin muscles could not gut it out. I mean seriously J.J. Watt, couldn’t you tough it out, you won’t need your nuts until your career is over anyways. But I digress. The U.S. Futures had a warning sign before they opened at 18:00 ET and that was simple, to to point and a stark,…


01.08 WONTONDEATHBURGER Marketwatch: Will They or WON’t they? 20% decline or 20% Rally? Run Kitty Run…

by John Galt January 7, 2016 19:50 ET So tonight begins, the first episode ever, of the Chinese Stock Markets without their safety vest and life boat, allegedly. UPDATE 20:33 ET: ALL IS WELL, IT’S NOT CAT, EAT ALL YOU WANT, IT’S A BUFFET! UPDATE 20:05 ET..RUH-ROH: Of course stale leftover stocks could really, really suck. Heading into the Asian markets tonight, here is where we are at: Japan’s Nikkei 225 is a wrong, wrong way away from 20, 000: However it is only down 1.08% as of this posting so…


01.06 BREAKING NEWS: CHINESE STOCK MARKET STOPS TRADING AFTER 30 MINUTES 7% DECLINE

by John Galt January 6, 2016 21:07 ET Breaking live on all financial media now. CHINESE STOCK EXCHANGE CLOSES AFTER 30 MINUTES OF TRADING AFTER HITTING 7% LIMIT DOWN THRESHOLD The headline from Bloomberg says it all: China Stocks Halted for Rest of Day After CSI 300 Tumbles 7% And here is the chart of the flatlined Chinese Stock Market from tonight’s brief session after the 15 minute trading halt then crash: Meanwhile U.S. stock futures have taken a steep dump after the news: Gold is on the verge of a…


01.06.15 N. Korean Nuclear Deathburger Marketwatch: Nork Test Causes Almost 200 Point US Futures Plunge!

by John Galt January 5, 2016, 2015 22:25 ET   Yeah, so much for a quiet day in trading today on low volume and a mixed close. North Korea apparently has put an end to that with their reported nuclear test this evening. Guess what time the test occurred on this chart (via Investing.com): Yup, first the China news posted here earlier then right after 9 p.m. ET real panic set in as the realization that the short little twerp is up to no good again; except this time he has…


01.05 21:00 ET BREAKING NEWS: China Blinks, Rescinds Order Allowing Large Equity Bloc Trading on 01.09

by John Galt January 5, 2016, 2015 21:00 ET Translated via Google: Holdings of major shareholders of listed companies in the way of new regulations frequently locked holdings 2016-01-06 07:48:21 Source: China Securities Network [Editor’s note] as a response to abnormal fluctuations in the stock market last year major shareholders of listed companies, one of a package of emergency policy “ban reduced order” will expire on Friday, came out trillions of restricted shares centralized rumors orders index, investor sentiment both under pressure. Plate before yesterday, the Commission issued information that the…


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