by John Galt May 15, 2012 05:30 ET After several days of just horrid technical destruction and weak trading action, look for equities to start their Facebook dead cat bounce phase. Today, if it plays out as most bear market moves do, should see a rise in prices in the morning, fade after lunch, and then it is a coin toss if the markets finish flat or lower. If there is major selling into the morning rally then that is a very ominous...
by John Galt May 9, 2012 18:25 ET From Reuters: Equity funds lose most since start of year -ICI How bad was it? From the article: Oops. So much for the CNBC propaganda.
by John Galt May 6, 2012 19:15 ET US Equity futures as of a 1/2 hour ago: That was not hard to predict. Neither was the emergence of anti-austerity leftist and extreme right wing parties becoming viable in Europe. As a result of the elections in France, Germany (local), Greece, and Serbia, it would appear the Euro will be punished severely and traders have broken out the chairs and whips tonight: That chart looks good compared to the reaction of...
by John Galt April 8, 2012 11:00 ET The anticipation building up for the open of U.S. futures tonight is highlighted by the action in the Israeli and Arab markets which were open for trading today. In lieu of the non-farm payroll data, the theory is that there will be a decent sized plunge at the open of the US markets. The Saudi market probably illustrates the pattern the S&P 500 and DJIA will probably take; a sharp dive at the open with an...
by John Galt April 4, 2012 23:00 ET The United States Equity Markets declined today. Now that Mr. Obvious has spoken… Gang, I’ll be the first to admit that technical analysis of THESE markets is an insane, stupid, waste of time. When the Federal Reserve is buying, logic, fundamentals, and technical analysis goes out the window. With that being established, Mr. Bernanke said the following in the FOMC minutes released this week: Now that the fun and games are over with, let’s address...
by John Galt January 17, 2012 05:20 ET The ChiComs broke out the heavy weaponry but then again, didn’t yours truly say they could do this? Yes, I did and reports are that China injected $30 billion into their equity and financial markets to insure that the selling would be stemmed regardless of the economic figures manufactured by the government. The one consistent result when governments monetize debt like the EU and Federal Reserve and interfere in the natural direction markets wish to go...
by John Galt January 10, 2012 05:15 ET Here we go again. The Republicans are holding their primary today in New Hampshire and like good little rally monkeys they will march to the polls and vote for a New England clone of George W. Bush because “this time it’s different” and Romney would never do any of the things that idiot Bush did. At least that’s what they would have you believe. With Alcoa reporting a quarterly loss, Italian 10 year yields over 7.10%,...
by John Galt January 9, 2012 05:15 ET Today is going to be a snoozer. With volumes anemic and the start of earnings season which is a total crap shoot this time around, do not look for any dramatic moves in any U.S. markets today barring some shocking geopolitical event. The head of the ECB is not named “Tebow” and the 1,321 summit between Sarkozy and Merkel is beginning to resemble a marriage counseling meeting rather than a serious attempt to resolve the...
by John Galt January 5, 2012 05:30 ET The implosion of the Euro is well under way and this will trigger a massive sell-off in the U.S. equity markets if the central banksters don’t break out their inner piggy and bail it out immediately. The technical condition is now shattered in the EUR/JPY swap with new decade plus lows being made daily and this morning being no exception: (from ForexPros.com – live 5 minute chart updates automatically) 96 is now in play in that...
by John Galt January 4, 2012 05:20 ET Buckle your seat belt, make sure you keep your arms inside the car at all times, and please secure all loose objects. All of the sudden yesterday’s “rally” isn’t looking so hot as the news broke this morning that usage of the ECB’s deposit facility hit an all time high yesterday of €453.18 billion and the volume in the U.S. markets was disappointing to the bulls and technicians. The Asian markets did not follow through with...
By John Galt January 3, 2012 07:30 ET Happy New Year and enjoy the faux Wall Street party today because it will not last long. Futures are up this morning but not due to a sudden resurgence in the U.S. economy or some miracle created by Obamanomics. The reality is that everything is still tied to the actions in the Eurozone and price action in the Euro and each tick up in the S&P 500 can be tied directly to the USD/EUR and EUR/JPY...
JohnGaltFLA Predictions for 2012 By John Galt January 1, 2012 – 17:00 ET I. Geopolitical Predictions 1. The United States constructs a new large military base in Columbia near the Venezuelan border in anticipation of the collapse of the Chavez regime. The new focus on South America is seen as a desire to refocus American foreign policy as the Middle East rejects any further interference from the United States. Columbia welcomes the action as it intertwines the U.S. into their internal conflicts...
By John Galt December 30, 2011 07:50 ET Buckle up. 2012 is almost here. Last year I was so-so in my predictions and for 2012 I probably will be also. If you are meek put on your Depends for this show or just assume the fetal position when the theme music stops. In the first half hour I’ll cover the news of the day, the financial news and then begin the prognostications which cover geopolitics, sports, U.S. politics, the economy, weather, and whatever else...
By John Galt December 30, 2011 – 07:43 ET While many a commentator and bubblevisionista will argue that 2011 was a “safe” year with the Dow up about 6% for the year and the S&P 500 treading water but up slightly, the decline in the NASDAQ is the lesson of the year and a warning sign for stocks in early 2012. Traditionally during an election year markets rally as the election gets closer and I expect 2012 to be no exception. While timing is...
By John Galt December 29, 2011 – 05:25 ET There is nothing Santa can do now but go home to the North Pole and melt the ice with the good Mrs. now, as the markets are totally focused on the reality of the PIIGS problems once again. The Euro is hovering and barely holding the 1.29 level as I type this, gold is moving south once again preparing to make new lows, and the yields on the 10 year Italian bond is well above...
By John Galt December 28, 2011 – 08:15 ET When these pages say “preparing for the fall” I am not referring to a change in seasons. The one chart, a bear among the most bearish, says it all: The breakdown of of Goldman Sachs is a leading, not lagging indicator of future activity. This collapse after the death cross as pictured above is usually a warning for a stock and in this case the financials that further stresses are about to impact the markets....
By John Galt December 27, 2011 – 07:30 ET Now that the holidays are over with, the returns complete, it is time to prepare for a harsh reality once again. First, the continued crisis in Italy continues with the 10 year yield crossing 7% again this morning, despite massive intervention by the ECB and member banks. (chart via Bloomberg.com) Secondly, the EUR/JPY swap is signaling another leg down in the Euro currency is imminent, probably at the end of this week or the next...
By John Galt December 23, 2011 – 05:50 ET Grandmabear got runned over by a Plungerdeer Walking home from Wall Street Christmas Eve. You can say there’s no such thing as Santa rallies, But for me and Art Cashin, we believe. The bears had been drinkin’ too much eggnog, And we’d begged them to buy more Citigroup. But they’d believed too much in Whitney, So off the margin calls knocked them for a loop. When they found them Christmas mornin’, At the scene of...
By John Galt December 22 2011 – 04:59 ET This is the time of year where the idiots will tell the viewers of the various bubblevisions that the Santa Claus rally is a sign of underlying economic strength and that this portends a bullish 2012. They will claim it means a major economic turn around is coming and blah, blah, blah. Really? Did anyone tell Asia last night where Shanghai had its 4th negative close in a row and is in danger of crashing...
By John Galt December 20, 2011 – 05:20 ET Yesterday’s market action on thin volume was in a word, brutal. All of the indicators that Santa Claus was going to save the day failed. Gold rallied above $1600, then fell. Oil barely moved. Financial stocks scream of a disaster building cause in the markets. And despite the horrid yields, people are piling cash into the U.S. bond market, even accepting real and net negative yields to insure the return of capital. The S&P 500′s...
By John Galt December 19, 2011 – 15:40 ET Chart from CNBC.com for once: S&P 1200 is in doubt once again….bah humbug! Uh-oh…Sing it Petula!
By John Galt December 19, 2011 – 11:05 ET Goldman Sachs is beginning to look a lot like the Grinch that Stole the Christmas Rally. Check out their action today on the chart courtesy of Yahoo Finance: If GS breaks below 85 this week, the markets will follow suit and break severely before the holidays, setting up for a very negative start to 2012. Watch this sucker closely gang.
By John Galt December 19, 2011 – 08:20 ET A tad late this morning with the update but then again, I was up into the wee hours to see if the Dear Leader’s son was going to engage in a random act of kindness or stupidity. Fortunately it has been quiet beyond the traditional launching of a short range missile to scare the South Koreans and keep our boys in the peninsula on alert. The markets went no where fast last week besides dropping...
By John Galt December 16, 2011 – 05:30 ET A short note on this morning since it is quad witching and who knows where this market will end up today…. 1. 1220 is overhead resistance on the S&P 500 so look for the PPT to be quite active to kick start the Santa Claus rally. 2. Gold had best find a way to get back over $1600 or for the short term the break down will continue towards the $1533-$1540 level. 3. A dead...
By John Galt December 15, 2011 – 05:20 ET The collapse in commodity prices yesterday along with warning signs from credit markets around the world should provide the only guidepost one needs to know about the Euro circus causing problems worldwide. Since 1220 did not hold on the S&P500 it now becomes overhead resistance to an upside move which should be attempted today. After that folks, there isn’t much to watch but tears as this market will only move with the news. There is...
By John Galt December 14, 2011 – 10:57 ET No sooner than the ink did dry on my 2 out of 3 strike warning, than BOOM. Swing and amiss: (chart from FOREXPROS.com) All bets are now off without MASSIVE INTERVENTION by the central banksters. S&P 1092 could come into play rapidly unless the Forex markets are checked.
By John Galt December 14, 2011 – 10:30 ET I would call this a major concern for those who think that the European crisis is cured or that the markets can not crash in December. STRIKE 1: Gold violates 200 Day Moving Average (DMA) Next stop $1480 and a warning signal of short term deflation on the horizon. STRIKE 2: S&P 500 Violates key Support at 1220 below 50 DMA Next stop, $1152 if the markets can not recover the 50 DMA today above...
By John Galt December 14, 2011 – 07:55 ET All you need to know (chart from INO.com): While everyone is focusing on the imploding EUR/USD trade, the EUR/JPY trade is far more fascinating as not only is it approaching the September-October lows, it appears that that the European Union is having to choose between which foreign currency to counter. With a reported dollar shortage in Europe and some Asian nations, the swap lines are wide open but the Euros can’t win in a multi-front...
By John Galt December 13, 2011 – 05:20 ET Yesterday’s price action was violent yet somewhat inconsequential due to low volume other than to indicate that the 1264 level on the S&P 500 cash index is now a hard resistance area with 1220 acting as a strong support region. Consequentially, odds are this trading range will hold for another day or two until the next news driven event causes a massive move up or down in equities worldwide, probably starting in Europe as has...
By John Galt December 12, 2011 – 05:20 ET One chart says it all. Unfortunately for equity traders, that just happens to be a chart of gold which should have soared on Friday to a climatic year end move and run at $1800 then $1900 if the markets believed that the world’s central banksters had cured the European nightmare. With the gold futures down some $26.50 as this is being written, obviously the world is voting on the lack of a Eurozone commitment to...
By John Galt December 9, 2011 – 05:30 ET If yesterday’s decline is any indication, then today’s continuation of voting by the U.S. short term Treasuries should provide anyone with an open mind the true feelings of how large investors and nations feel about about the alleged EU resolution and the ongoing crisis since August: No my fellow readers, your eyes are not deceiving you. Just as during the heights of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, people fled all other investments and drove U.S. yields...
By John Galt December 7 2011 – 05:40 ET Without further ado, here is your rumor selection of the day from Europe: a. Europe will create 7 new bailout programs and print faster than the Fed. b. The new Eurobond will be called the “Transformer Bond” and it will change shape, yield, and form with each corresponding drop in equities (aka the Megatron bond) c. Merkel agrees to marry Sarkozy. d. Sarkozy agrees to marry his dog. e. All of the above In reality...
By John Galt December 5, 2011 – 07:40 ET All is well with the world once again. Santa Merkel has hung her Grinch suit in the closet and donned her stunning old school statist outfit to prove that she can out-Bernank the Fed. Sarkozy had put on the French Poodle outfit in an obedient manner as a good lap dog for Germany would be expected to do. Of course the French President has yet to move his offices to Vichy but that’s just a...
By John Galt December 2, 2011 – 05:30 ET I’ll keep this one brief with some numbers: Gold should head north of $1780 today, fail and pull back at the close. The BLS NFP dart board prediction from myself: +163 K U-6 Remains above 15.2% S&P 500 approaches 1265-1266 on light volume and starts to fail before the close. The main thing is to watch the 3 month US Treasury and the reaction of the financials to the drip, drip, drip of news out...
By John Galt December 1, 2011 – 05:25 ET Now that the thrill is gone and so is the short covering rally, reality will return to the markets and in a violent sort of manner. Look for today to be a very mild trading day with weak volume and conviction compared to yesterday’s thrill ride. The markets should trade up or down within a 0.5 to 1% range at the most with 1265 on the S&P 500 cash acting as upward resistance. That number...
By John Galt November 30, 2011 – 09:00 ET No words are necessary to tell you what is happening next, so I thought I would let the 2008 charts speak for themselves. (Click to enlarge/reduce chart size) Sept 2008 S&P 500: Aug 2008-Dec 2008 S&P 500: Sept 2008 Gold: Notice the spike as gold rallied on the dollar swap liquidity announcement. Aug – Dec 2008 Gold:
By John Galt November 29, 2011 – 05:30 ET The news this morning is simple: The EFSF is hollow and will not work. There is no grand bailout plan for the PIIGS or other European nations. France and Germany still hate each other. Poland has offered to surrender to Germany again this morning. And the United States is being led by cartoon characters. This means the S&P 500 should make another run at 1194, then 1200, and finally 1220 before capitulating once again due...
By John Galt November 28, 2011 Live 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. EST TONIGHT: Well, I can now officially call myself a “victim” as my wife caused me great pain this weekend, but I still love her, but in reality, she deserves to be condemned to the same punishment I have for the next month (watching the Bucs). The world news is as doomerific as always if not worse. The economic news sucks. So where can I find something to smile about? I’ll Tebow...
By John Galt November 28, 2011 – 07:20 ET After the latest rumor de jour was crushed by facts: IMF Denies Italian Bailout Package Talks The markets do not care. The Eurorumor of the day was enough to juice the futures and Asian markets overnight moving money out of the Forex safe currencies and into speculative plays for window dressing in the equities markets. The big movers were obviously EUR/USD and EUR/JPY with a nice gap in both as highlighted in this hourly chart...
By John Galt November 22, 2011 – 22:00 ET Just a quick note before I crash for 4 hours: FUGLY. Wow. (ALL CHARTS FROM FOREXPROS.COM…click here to see all of their futures charts) U.S. Futures down hard: Down 13.10 at this posting. But what is scarey is the FOREX futures…. Aussie v. USD: Canadian Dollar v. USD: Hang-Seng Index (down 2.05% at the moment): Stay tuned, this could get super ugly with a holiday in the U.S. on Thursday and massive uncertainty about Europe’s...
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