TROPICAL STORM


Tropical Storm Karl: Not looking so good Now but Still Projected to become a Hurricane

by John Galt September 16, 2016 04:55 ET This is one of those storms everyone should watch closely especially as it gets close to 60 degrees west longitude as it has all of the makings of a powerful Cape Verde hurricane in the classic sense. In the mean time, here is the usual advisory package until the NHC determines the exact path of the storm next week. LATEST NHC ADVISORY ========================================== 000 WTNT32 KNHC 181453 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100…


Tropical Storm Julia Forms over Land Heads into Georgia

by John Galt September 14, 2016 05:30 ET In what is a very rare event, Tropical Storm Julia has formed over land over the state of Florida overnight and started moving north into Georgia where it should rain out near Savannah. This rare occurrence happens less than 2% of the time in tropical cyclone history since records have been kept (per TWC) and certainly speaks to the bizarre hurricane season we are experiencing thus far. This will be the only first update on this storm with the usual package as it…


TS Hermine: 09.03 1300 – Tropical Storm Warnings From Long Island to Boston

by John Galt August 28, 2016 16:55 ET 09.02.16 – 18:30 ET – Just ugh. 09.02.16 – 17:00 ET – Boy oh boy oh boy. If this recent model run of the ECMWF (Euro) confirms, life is going to be VERY interesting in NJ and New York City: Tropical Storm Warnings have now been extended up to Sandy Hook, NJ with watches continuing for New York City and Long Island. So far the forecast does not anticipate the storm turning back into NJ/NY but the model runs from 1 week ago…


Hurricane Madeline: Hurricane WARNING Up for the Big Island of Hawaii

  by John Galt August 28, 2016 12:20 ET 08.30.16 20:35 ET – Just a heads up as storm number 1 approaches the big island of Hawaii as a strong Category 2 hurricane. Good luck out there all my friends! ************************************ 08.29.16 15:35 ET – FYI upgraded to a hurricane today… ******************************** The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Madeline which appears to be heading directly for the big island and will drop large amounts of rain, especially in the mountainous regions. Some meteorologists have speculated that…


Tropical Depression #8 Forms: Tropical Storm Warnings up for NC Coast

by John Galt August 28, 2016 12:40 ET 08.30.16 20:30 ET – No further updates as this storm is no longer a threat to the U.S. ************************************************************* It’s now a race against time. Will Mother Nature let North Carolina get the storm called Hermine or Ian. My money is on Hermine which appears to be getting its act together faster than Invest 99L which is not helping our rain situation down here in Florida. That is too much rain lately when adding the moisture and winds to an already soaked southern…


Tropical Storm Fiona Forms in Eastern Atlantic

by John Galt August 17, 2016 15:30 ET NOTE: Barring a sudden shift in the forward motion, intensity, or forecast this will be the only update on this storm after the 1700 ET NHC advisory. If this becomes a threat to Bermuda, I will start updating it at that time. Right now, this storm has ‘fish’ written all over it, but here is the usual package of models, etc: NHC ADVISORIES ================================================= 000 WTNT31 KNHC 172040 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016…


Hurricane Earl: 5th Named Storm Comes Ashore in Belize

by John Galt August 2, 2016 20:30 ET 08/04 19:45 ET – With the storm now dying out over Mexico, the update below from the NHC will be the final update on this thread. And into the busy part of the Hurricane season we go. Hopefully most of these storms remain Tropical Storms or minimal Hurricanes but don’t kid yourself, they can do quite a bit of damage also. I shall keep this thread ongoing and updated until the storm approaches final landfall in Mexico or Belize as this storm poses…


06.20 Tropical Storm Danielle to Form in Bay of Campeche

by John Galt June 20, 2016 05:00 ET FYI, since there is little time for this storm to intensify and it is making landfall as a minimal Tropical Storm later today, this will be the only update on this storm. As of this update it is a Tropical Depression but per the NHC will become a storm before landfall after lunch Central Time today, thus the title.   ************************************* NHC ADVISORIES 000 WTNT34 KNHC 200849 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400…


Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Thread: 06.07 0500 – SC/NC Your Turn

by John Galt June 5, 2016 11:05 ET You just have to love it when you finish updated then drift over to Accuweather to see this as your forecast tomorrow: UPDATE 06.05.16 18:00 ET: Recon has found sustained winds which justify an upgrade to  Tropical Storm Colin by the NHC. This is the earliest time in recorded history that a third Tropical Storm/Hurricane has ever formed since records have been kept by the US Government. UPDATED ADVISORY FROM NHC: 000 WTNT63 KNHC 052135 TCUAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS…


Heads Up GA/SC: It’s Hurricane Season 2016 (updated 5/25)

by John Galt May 24, 2016 16:45 ET One week from tomorrow, the annual Atlantic hurricane season begins. However, Mother Nature does not have a calendar. Thankfully this is only a model projection, the one named the “Euro” or ECMWF which happens to be one of the most accurate models last season, and it shows the potential for a tropical system to develop and ruin Memorial Day for residents in the Savannah, GA to Charleston, SC region (courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com): I shall keep my loyal readers updated should this actually develop…


HURRICANE Joaquin: It’s a Fish, Buh, Bye!

by John Galt September 29, 2015 05:00 ET 10/03/15 16:00 ET: 17:00 ET – 09.29 – Let’s hope this new track verifies as it indicates it might turn into a fish… —————————————————————————————- Here we go again gang. Let’s hope this does not turn into a Sandy type of situation but this is the time of year for that type of storms and the intensity forecasting is very imprecise. At this point in time however, if the short term models are any indication, there is a chance that once the storm turns…


08.23 0900 ET: Hurricane Danny 0800 Advisory Posted (Updated)

by John Galt August 18, 2015 17:10 ET Here we go again. In this quiet El Nino depressed hurricane season, the first major threat to the Caribbean islands has appeared with Tropical Storm Danny which just formed in the Eastern Atlantic. Once again, here are the standard photos, model runs, and advisories which will update automatically as the websites associated with them. UPDATE AUGUST 18, 2015 20:00 ET: Man, I hope this 14 day GFS model does not verify. If so, it is going to suck to live where I do….


Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forms near Puerto Rico

  by John Galt September  5, 2013 05:15 ET With the development of Tropical Storm Gabrielle overnight I feel that I must post this advisory thread at least for my readers in Puerto Rico and Bermuda as it would appear that is the path of the storm at this time. Since it is not expected to reach hurricane strength nor impact the United States, this will be the only update provided. All graphics will update themselves automatically. 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050840 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL…


Tropical Depression Dorian is the Storm that Will not Die

  by John Galt August 3, 2013 07:30 ET   Some two weeks after its original designation the storm has been re-upgraded to a Tropical Depression by the NHS this morning. Fortunately it has fish (going out to sea to swim) written all over it based on the wind patterns so it is no threat other than coastal rains in Florida. This will be my only update on the storm since it is no threat to the CONUS. 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030832 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS…


Tropical Storm Chantal: STORM CANCEL

 UPDATED July 10, 2013 20:55 ET: 000 WTNT33 KNHC 102035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 …CHANTAL DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE… …COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS… SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…16.5N 73.7W ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 260 MI…415 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1012 MB…29.88…


Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico-6/6 0500 Advisory added 60 mph Winds

  by John Galt June 6, 2013 21:00 ET This will probably be the final update on this storm as by this time tomorrow it will probably be extra-tropical and not much of a storm by the time it reaches the Mid-Atlantic states….2000 ET advisory posted at the bottom of this posting… Breaking news 6/6 1730 ET: The NHC has renumbered the Invest and declared it  Tropical Storm Andrea. We’ll update these pages at new data is posted by the US Navy and National Hurricane Center. Look for warnings beyond the…


2013 Official JohnGaltFLA Hurricane Forecast: We are all Going to Die

  by John Galt May 24, 2013 19:00 ET     Nothing like the classics. However, I don’t think the hurricane season this year is any different than any recent years as Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell.com  has been so accurately stating that the North Atlantic is in a 1940’s-1950’s type of cycle with increased activity. Imagine that. It wasn’t caused by Algore inspired globalist warming. With that brief political statement, here is my forecast based on some back of the napkin, dartboard, and personal experience analysis: 27 named storms 13 Hurricanes…


Hurricane Sandy: A Historical Storm in the making for the U.S. East Coast

  by John Galt October 24, 2012 17:00 ET   —- UPDATE 10/25 23:00 ET —   Just unbelievable. This storm has all of the makings of one of the most historic storms to hit the U.S. mainland since records have been kept. As of this update, the storm has made some shifts that were unexpected but appears to be reorganizing before it intensifies just before landfall somewhere between the Delmarva region up to Cape Cod. Should the models continue to verify and the system become as strong as a few…


Tropical Storm Isaac: Heads up AL, MS, and NEW ORLEANS!!! (Updated 08.26 1100 ET)

by John Galt August 21, 2012 17:55 ET   UPDATED 08.26.12 11:15 ET   Ruh-Roh! New Orleans is now firmly entrenched in the cone of death and if this sucker gets its act together, watch out! I hope all of my friends, especially Doc who survived Katrina in Mississippi are able to hunker down as this storm could intensify rapidly. Full update below and sorry gang, better y’all than us, we really don’t need the rain along with the wind!!!   Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell.com just tweeted a concern about 1947:…


Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in Eastern Caribbean (updated 8/3 1700)

  by John Galt August 1, 2012 19:25 ET   Updated 8/2 1700 ET:   Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed per the NHC. Updates are below.   Here we go gang and the long term models and forecast could indicate trouble for the Gulf of Mexico potentially within a week or so.   8/1/12 19:25 ET:   Ugh. Welcome to August and the start of the peak of the hurricane season. I’ll use this thread to maintain the updates as it strengthens into Tropical Storm Ernesto then Hurricane Ernesto over the…


Tropical Storm Debby: T.S. Warnings/Watches Issued for Florida Panhandle/West Coast

  by John Galt June 23, 2012 16:15 ET   6/25 10:55 ET: AND NOW, I’m in the Tropical Storm Warning area. But this is a gully washer where rain is just dumping on us non-stop.   6/24 16:45: At least NOW I feel like I’m part of the Hurricane Season with the Tropical Storm Watch extended throughout my area. See details below with the latest advisory packages.   6/24 1500 ET: I’m just sayin’….     6/24 10:59 ET- It would appear the GFS model is winning. The West Coast…


UPDATED 06.21 – Chris becomes the First Hurricane of the 2012 Season

  by John Galt June 19, 2012 16:55 ET   ********* UPDATED 06.21.12 17:40 ET ********   It only lasted about 6 hours or so as a hurricane but it claims the honor of being the first of the season…   FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER:     000 WTNT33 KNHC 212033 TCPAT3   BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012 500 PM AST THU JUN 21 2012   …CHRIS BEGINS TO WEAKEN…NOW A TROPICAL STORM…   SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————-…


5.25.12 SubTropical Storm Beryl Forms off Carolina Coast

by John Galt May 25, 2012 23:30 ET   Sigh.   And it is not even the start of hurricane season. As usual, satellite and NHC graphics update automatically. This looks like it could become a LONG season again for those of us in Hurricane Alley.   SUB-TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY #1   000 WTNT32 KNHC 260242 TCPAT2   BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012   …SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC… …TROPICAL STORM WARNING…


Tropical Storm Alberto forms off South Carolina Coast

by John Galt May 20, 2012 07:00 ET   In what can only be described with the word “ugh” as in here we go again, the first tropical storm of the season has formed off of the coast of South Carolina. Alberto is the earliest tropical storm to form since 2008 and almost three weeks before the official start of the hurricane season. With that little gem of good news, a reminder that the satellite photos and graphics from the NHC update themselves automatically, model runs will be updated in this…


12.30 V of Galt: Predictions 2012 Live and in Color

By John Galt December 30, 2011 07:50 ET Buckle up. 2012 is almost here. Last year I was so-so in my predictions and for 2012 I probably will be also. If you are meek put on your Depends for this show or just assume the fetal position when the theme music stops. In the first half hour I’ll cover the news of the day, the financial news and then begin the prognostications which cover geopolitics, sports, U.S. politics, the economy, weather, and whatever else I feel like. There are no guarantees,…


11/8 1700 Tropical Storm Sean: Warnings issued for Bermuda

By John Galt November 8, 2011 17:45 This will be the only update I post on Tropical Storm Sean (formerly sub-tropical) which is set to impact Bermuda tomorrow. One thing for certain; even though the U.S. has escaped a direct hit from a major storm this has been one heck of an active season. Hopefully this will be the end of it. Satellite photos will update automatically from NOAA:   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ NCAR/SWFMUD MODEL PLOTS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ (click to enlarge/reduce charts) +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL…


10/27 0500 Hurricane Rina Update: Storm Cancel

By John Galt October 27, 2011 05:30 And that’s why these suckers are so hard to forecast. Cancun gets wet. The U.S. gets zilch. Storm cancel. This will be the final update on this thread barring a radical shift in the storm. October 26, 2011 17:45 Needless to say, tons of rain, a breeze (30-60 mph) and alcohol will not stop Fantasy Fest. In fact, it might enhance it. Models are now updated below, it has fizzled somewhat so let’s pray no one gets hurt. October 26, 2011 07:50 So far,…


Tropical Storm Philippe: No threat to the CONUS but Storm #17 in a busy season

By John Galt September 24, 2011 17:15 No further updates other than this entry as this storm is projected to become a hurricane then fizzle in the North Atlantic as a fish. The fascinating storyline though is that the season is still quite active and running far above the averages. Let’s hope this doesn’t mean October and November mean a lot of action for those of us in the Southeastern U.S.   Satellite photos will update automatically from NOAA:   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ NCAR/SWFMUD MODEL PLOTS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ (click to enlarge/reduce charts) +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ TROPICAL…


9/21 Tropical Storm Ophelia: A weak storm but worth watching

By John Galt September 23, 05:15 She looks like she’s fading fast and no further updates after this morning’s advisory will be posted on this storm. September 22, 2011 05:00 She looks like she’s trying to get more organized but shear is strong and the probability of a recurve out to sea via Bermuda is growing stronger. We’ll check this again tonight at 17:00 ET.   September 21, 2011 05:00 This one is forecast to be impacted by massive shear so it may not amount to much of anything if it…


Tropical Storm Maria: Getting her Act Together finally

By John Galt September 12, 2011 08:55 This will be the final update. Advisory is below. Storm does not appear to be a threat to the U.S. September 11, 2011 08:30 She’s getting her act together but after a trip through Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands it does not look like it will be a threat except possibly to Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane. September 10, 2011 08:00 Latest report is looking like this could become a fizzle soon so let’s up. Discussion and public advisory updated below. September…


Tropical Storm Nate: Soon to sip some Tequila?

By John Galt September 9, 20111 05:10 Nate is starting to look better and appears to be a Mexico storm thus this will be my last update unless there is a dramatic shift in the models or upper air patterns.   September 8, 2011 15:45 This storm does not appear to be a threat to the U.S. despite the apparent weird model run amok during the last run. Updates will only occur once daily unless it shifts and becomes a threat to South Texas. Welcome to the teeth of the active…


Hurricane Katia: 9/7 0500 Update, down to 90 mph, starting to weaken and recurve out to sea

By John Galt September 7, 2011 07:10- Since this storm is behaving and will recurve back out to sea, this will be the final update on it unless there is a sudden change in direction. Last updates from NHC in this posting below. If you wish to follow the storm further, please consult the NHC website. September 5, 2011 17:25- Another major hurricane but thankfully this is looking as if it will recurve out to sea. I’ll continue to update until it’s no longer a threat to the U.S. New models…


Tropical Storm Lee 9/2 1700 Update: Rain and Flood threat to Louisiana

By John Galt September 2, 2011 – 17:50 ET Now that I’ve rejoined the 21st Century, the hurricane season accelerates. Pray for New Orleans folks and pray this storm does not stall. Usual and full package below. Satellite photos from NOAA will update automatically along with track updates from the NHC: ************************************************ NHC ADVISORIES ************************************************ 000 WTNT33 KNHC 022051 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011 …TROPICAL STORM LEE DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST…SQUALLS…


Tropical Storm Jose forms near Bermuda-Storm Warnings Issued for minimal T.S.

By John Galt August 28, 2011 – 09:15 ET This is a very minimal tropical storm with little threat to life and limb thus this will be the only posting on this system. The Bermuda government has issued a tropical storm warning and that should be about the extent of the threat. The satellite photo’s below exhibit why this is such a minimal threat: NHC advisory #1 (only one I’ll be posting): 000 WTNT31 KNHC 281213 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1…CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL…


Irene Hits New York City as a Tropical Storm

By John Galt August 28, 2011 – 09:11 ET I smell a whole lot of “I survived Hurricane Irene” with the New York City outline in the background t-shirts heading for the donation bin…. 0900 EDT update from the NHC: 000 WTNT64 KNHC 281302 TCUAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 900 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 …CENTER OF IRENE MOVES OVER NEW YORK CITY… REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER…


Tropical Storm Harvey: Central American Rain Event

By John Galt August 19, 2011 Only update for this storm folks as it is a Central American event. Pray for those poor people as it could get ugly with mudslides and flooding. 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192353 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 …AIRCRAFT FINDS HARVEY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS… SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…16.1N 84.6W ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 255 MI…415…


7th Tropical Storm of Season forms: Bermuda meet Gert

By John Galt August 14, 2011 – 15:20 ET The seventh named storm of the season has formed but Gert is no threat to the US and more like an afternoon annoyance to the well prepared citizens of Bermuda. Enjoy the wind and rain my friends and listeners on the Rock. This will be the only thread on the storm and advisory I shall post, and as usual, the NHC satellite photos will update automatically. And the infrared version: Here is the most recent advisory from the NHC: 000 WTNT22 KNHC…


8/4 0500 ET Tropical Storm Emily is driving forecasters nuts

By John Galt August 4, 2011 Here we go again boys and girls as 91L grew up while I was on the air. The storm appears to be somewhat more interesting now with the path but model forecasts are still way to early to be precise. 8/4 1700ET update:  And just like that, poof, it’s gone…. Satellite photos will update automatically… Infrared view: Tracking Map/Watches/Warnings from the NHC:   From the Southwest Florida Water Management District model page: (CLICK TO ENLARGE/REDUCE) From Colorado State University’s model page: (CLICK TO ENLARGE/REDUCE) LATEST…


Tropical Season Heats Up: Invest 91L 100% chance of development

By John Galt July 30, 2011 It would appear that July might mew out like a kitten with a very weak storm named Don, but with the activity picking up in the Atlantic basin August could be roaring in like 2005. I personally hope not because who wants to go through that again. From the National Hurricane Center in Miami: (CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ENLARGE or REDUCE SIZE) This will probably be the last satellite photo for this thread we’ll see today before I start a Tropical Storm/Hurricane Emily thread:…


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