US DOLLAR

The Unofficial Presidential Debate Drinking Game: Porn King vs. Murderess

by John Galt October 9, 2016 17:00 ET Just when you think the Presidential race of 2016 couldn’t sink any lower, well, BOOM! There ya go. In the RED Corner we have the Perverted Purveyor of Pussy Policital Pontification, Donald “Grab ’em Where it Counts” Trump. In the BLUE Corner we have the Killer of Chappaqua, the Queen of Mean, the Butcher of Benghazi, the one, the only, Hillary “You’ll like me or I’ll kill you” Clinton. Bill Clinton will not be in attendance tonight as he wants to find some…


The Unofficial 2016 1st Presidential Debate Drinking Game Rules: Bullfest 2016

by John Galt September 26, 2016 17:00 ET Yup, the theme tonight is “don’t say facts, say bull!” Here is the Fox News live video link for the program tonight: Welcome to Bullfest 2016, America’s every 4 year fertilizer spreading festival known as the Presidential Debates. In the Blue corner, we have the nastiest woman alive, willing to kill soldiers, lawyers, and interns to stay in power regardless of how much bonking her husband engages in and regardless if they are of legal age or not. Her qualifications are that she…


What the Federal Reserve Really Said Today: We Despise Trump

by John Galt September 21, 2016 19:20 ET The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued their statement on interest rates and the always wrong economic outlook at 2 p.m. today (From the Federal Reserve webpage): Release Date: September 21, 2016 For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate…


When You See Stories Like This, the Market Top is In

by John Galt September 16, 2016 19:50 ET When you see stories like this one (via Business Insider): Yeah, it usually means the market top is in. When the pie in the sky insanity after years of predicting market crashes and booms winds down to the end of the a credit and business cycle, the insane stories start to appear attributing rallies to elections, Issac Newton, Trump’s belly button lint, or the length and duration of Hillary Clinton’s Parkinson seizures. The truth sucks but God forbid the pump and dumpers tell…


The Bull Market is Now Officially Over

by John Galt September 10, 2016 22:20 ET Before I go into any great details as to why I think this horrid bull market is over, albeit horrid only because it is Federal Reserve purchased and promoted bull, I wish to review the markets at the end of trading this past Friday, September 9 (courtesy of the Wall Street Journal). How bad was it really? -NYSE down ratio of 13:1 on 4.3 billion shares -Nasdaq down radio 6:1 on 2.18 billion shares meaning it could have been worse -Dow Transports down…


No Matter What Janet Yellen Says, She Will Trigger this Outcome

by John Galt August 26, 2016 05:15 ET Maximum pain is on the way. What is about to hit could have been avoided, but knowing the pragmatic nature of central bankers they will simply state what they think the markets and world wants to hear. This time it is different. Between what she says at Jackson Hole today, which will be released at 10 a.m. ET, and the news slowly leaking out of Europe, by the time we get to the October surprise for the markets, all hell will be breaking…



Welcome Back to the Stock Market Toppy, Top, Top, of Toppiness

by John Galt August 15, 2016 20:15 ET Yeah, okay, maybe not the best version of the song, but I think my readers understand my point. The S&P 500 closed at another already record super duper CNBCgasm high today on low volume and a very questionable economic and technical structure. Just like it did in 2007. While the insanity with in the major indexes reflect a mania, a bubble, a parabolic blow off, etc., etc., the off the radar investment warning signs are everywhere with dark pool deals which would make…


Marc Faber Sends a Chilling Warning: S&P 500 Could Decline 50%

by John Galt August 9, 2016 18:40 ET Marc Faber, often referred to as “Dr. Doom” among many other nicknames from the bulls who hate it when he turns super bearish (and some when he turns bullish for that matter), was on CNBC earlier today and dropped this bomb on the pump-and-dump stock infomercial network: For the mathematically challenged and government employees who might have heard what he said but failed to comprehend, that would put the S&P 500 around 1100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average somewhere between 9,000 and…


6 Years Later the PIIGS and Europe Still Wallow in Bear Markets

by John Galt July 31, 2016 10:00 ET Everything is great. All is quiet on the Western Front, Eastern Front, and Main Street economies with sluggish growth but new all time highs in key equity markets promoted for television purposes. The problems in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain are solved because CNBCCNNFBNFNCBBG does not want to cover them on a daily basis. Hence it’s all awesome: Right? Despite the fact that the over indebted United States has managed to hyperinflate its way into a new all time high in equity…


If China’s Big Mama’s are Buying Precious Metals, Why Aren’t YOU?

by John Galt July 17, 2016 21:45 ET The “Big Mothers” in China are buying gold in much larger quantities because they expect global instability and currency rate disruptions No, no, no, not that Big Mama, more like the women shopping here: The truth is astonishing as this story tonight from the South China Morning Post reveals: Hong Kong hits the jackpot as mainland China’s ‘Big mothers’ hoard gold amid troubled times Excerpt: Chinese customs data released last week showed imports from Hong Kong to the mainland increased in May mainly…


Meet the Swaption Another $25 Trillion Time Bomb

by John Galt July 11, 2016 00:15 ET Wow. Another all time high in the S&P 500, just like 2007: In June of 2007, the S&P 500 hit an all time high price even as Bear Stearns was bailing out two major hedge funds which imploded due to the real estate crisis and complex derivative investment instruments (via the Wall Street Journal in 2007): Two Big Funds At Bear Stearns Face Shutdown Two big hedge funds at Bear Stearns Cos. were close to being shut down last night as a rescue…


Deutsche Bank Implodes to New Record Low Prices in Europe

by John Galt July 6, 2016 05:30 ET Whatever caused the snap, kerplunk, or “BOOM” at 04:30 ET this morning, it has continued with Deutsche Bank deteriorating rapidly now down over 5% in European trading: Whatever is happening, it has driven the German 10 Year Bund to a record -0.20% and the US 10 Year Treasury yield to new record lows close to 1.320%! Somewhere the smart money knows there is a major shoe about to drop, be it Italy, the United States, or Asia and they understand that it will…


The Shellacking Continues as Britain is Just the Tip of the Real Estate Iceberg

by John Galt July 5, 2016 20:50 ET The absolutely bull whipping of investors in foreign real estate continued today as 2 more property funds in the United Kingdom froze redemptions after Standard Life started the ball rolling on July 4th. M&G became the third company to shut down redemptions from its property fund as it stated (via Bloomberg): “Investor redemptions in the fund have risen markedly because of the high levels of uncertainty in the U.K. commercial property market since the outcome of the European Union referendum. Redemptions have now…


The Smart Money is Betting on More Economic Pain Today

by John Galt July 5, 2016 05:15 ET The smart money, as I warned about last week, is ignoring the so-called low volume rally and fleeing to safety. Need proof? Check these two charts out: If the US 10 Year breaks below the 1.35% yield, odds are it will fly down to 1.25% then on to a flat 1% yield. Regardless of what the bubbleheads say on financial television this will be a massive shift of billions of dollars out of potential investment pools for equities which will further squeeze a…


Brexit is the Bear Stearns/Lehman Bros. Moment

by John Galt July 4, 2016 17:40 ET The United States equity and bond markets resume trading on Tuesday July 5th, but whoa be it for those who are unprepared. Tonight the breaking news in the English media indicates that Brexit is not only a Bear Stearns v2.0 Moment as ZeroHedge puts it, but in fact could be a lot worse. The details have made it to the front pages of the U.K. press, starting with the Guardian: Standard Life shuts property fund amid rush of Brexit withdrawals Excerpted: Investors in…


Stock Market Bellwether Update: Going Nowhere Fast

by John Galt July 4, 2016 13:30 ET As America celebrates our 240th birthday and the central banksters of the world celebrate their short squeeze rally of the past five sessions, the truth about where this stock market is somewhat murky. I listen to many of the stock market “call in” radio shows not for advice; but to gauge the sentiment of the sheeple, those poor, stupid suckers who held on to Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, and General Motors because some “broker” on the radio told an old lady that they…



06.27 Market Deathburger: The EuroCarnage Continues after Brexit

by John Galt June 26, 2 016 15:30 ET I shall keep this as a running update as trading and markets open. Needless to say, currency markets in Asia have opened and the carnage continues unabated so look for Bank of Japan and Swiss intervention soon enough. 05:00 ET – While equity futures are not indicating panic, the bond market is screaming a move into safety. This could be another long day and the key level to watch on the S&P 500 is 2020 as a violation of that figure at…


06.24 US MARKET DEATHBURGER: Black Friday Brexit Burgers Now Being Served

by John Galt June 24, 2016 02:00 ET I have never been so happy to be so wrong in all my life. I honest to God did not think my limey crazy assed brethren had the jewels to vote for Brexit, but they did. If TPTB do not stop them through a technicality or loophole in the Parliament, then this move is nothing more than a vindication of the insanity we are witnessing in American politics where an unconvicted felon is allowed to run against a reality TV show millionaire/billionaire. Thus…




06.23 BREXIT Updates: The End of Great Britain, the Start of French Britain

by John Galt June 23, 2018 18:00 ET I remember reflecting on history at one time where I said if the United Kingdom ever succumbs to the evil lure of globalism and refuses to act proud and independent, then the Western world may well be lost. It would appear, barring a miracle, that the news will reflect a victory for “remain” and the British empire which was once a proud lion, will instead join the world community of cowardly lions which submit to every whim of the global banking syndicates. Of…


Monday was NOT a Good Day for the Stock Market

by John Galt June 21, 2016 05:00 ET The stock market on Monday was a lot like the Trump campaign; it looked good from the outside but when you lifted the hood it was a complete and total wreck. Yesterday was a complete and total technical disaster. Huge rally on light volume, selling into each hourly rally, then failing to close anywhere near the highs with selling into the close. This morning futures are up but once the gap is filled in the 2091-2097 range look for more selling as anyone…


Bellwether Weekly Update: AAPL & GS Clank Again this Past Week

by John Galt June 19, 2016 21:30 ET   So another week and another warning from my bellwether stocks, Apple and Goldman Sachs. There is no serious middle class consumer demand and there appears to be no desire to invest in further expansion of companies unless it is to use cash on the balance sheet to buy smaller companies like Microsoft did with LinkedIn. Thus based on futures tonight we might get a dead iPhone bounce or maybe even a better dead Bankster bounce from Goldman but in the end, the…


MSCI will NOT Include China A-Shares in Emerging Market Index

by John Galt June 14, 2016 17:14 ET WOW! This will not help the Shanghai markets tonight and probably will cause massive tankage in Hong Kong also. Via CNBC: Key MSCI emerging markets index rejects Chinese mainland stocks, again MSCI on Tuesday said it would delay inclusion of the mainland-traded Chinese A shares in its key emerging market index. In a release, MSCI said investors needed more time to assess the effectiveness of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program (QFII) investment quota allocation, capital mobility policy changes and the effectiveness of…


German 10 Yr Bund Yield Goes Negative for First Time in History

by John Galt June 14, 2016 04:50 ET Just when anyone in the investing world thought it couldn’t get any more nuts than it has been, German government bonds send the most alarming signal ever with their 10 year Bund yield dropping into negative territory for the first time in history: Meanwhile, US 10 Year Treasuries are now have a yield with a 1.5 handle this morning: If the US 10 year breaks below 1.50% that usually correlates with a stock market some 10-15% below current levels. This really ties the…


Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Why I am voting to leave the EU

by John Galt June 12, 2016 20:10 ET In what can only be called a stunning editorial in tonight’s edition of the UK Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard hammers it home with a stunning rebuke of the pro-European Union forces inside the United Kingdom with this editorial: Brexit vote is about the supremacy of Parliament and nothing else: Why I am voting to leave the EU Holy smokes! This is somewhat earth shattering as the conventional economic thought inside England was to remain and muddle through with a partnership both with France and…


Market Trouble Ahead as the Bellwethers Break

by John Galt June 12, 2016 19:40 ET I’m going to keep this short, simple, but loaded with graphs so everyone can see what happened last week to the 2 bellwether stocks in the equities markets, Apple, Inc. and Goldman Sachs. Why I have tagged those two issues is irrelevant; I just advise everyone to remember 2007-2009 when General Motors and IBM were the bellwethers and what happened to the markets after they broke down. Both of these stocks are widely held, usually reliable leaders in bull markets and vice-versa, and…


China Drops a Silent Economic Bomb: Hints at Bankruptcy Rules for Financial Sector

by John Galt June 12, 2016 17:55 ET The one thing that foreign investors had always been able to count on with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the Communist Party of China was that no matter how bad the conditions in their financial sector may get, the government and PBOC will always find away to restructure the debts or ensure the continued operation of the entities to avoid an outright default. Sunday, during the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, that theory was turned on its head. From the South China…


06.08 21:10 ET BREAKING: Bank of Korea Cuts Key Interest Rate to 1.25% in Surprise Move

by John Galt June 8, 2016 21:10 ET In the ever perpetual currency war and race to zero, the Bank of Korea surprised markets tonight with a cut in their key overnight rate to 1.25% from 1.50% after experts and analysts saw no cut forthcoming. This is the first move for the Korean Central Bank since June 2015 and needless to say the Korean Won moved quickly against the USD by 0.7% but shortly after pared the move to half of its intended consequences:


It’s Not 2008, Don’t Worry, It’s Fine!

by John Galt June 1, 2016 21:30 ET The stock market is possibly poised to break out to new highs, just like it threatened to do in 2007. As the rest of the economy was in shambles, the hucksters in financial media and so-called stock advisors made a cottage industry on selling to willing pension funds, speculators, and individual investors the stocks of the very corporations and banks that they knew were already technically insolvent. Then came the Obama administration after the crash and he was presented with a deal by…


China’s Caixin PMI Edges down to 49.4 in March

by John Galt May 2, 2016 22:25 ET The sugar coated version of tonight’s release came from the newspaper Shanghai Daily via Xinhua: Caixin China manufacturing PMI edges down to 49.4 From the somewhat softened release: The Caixin General China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an indicator of manufacturing activity, edged down to 49.4 in April, a private survey showed on Tuesday. The reading was fractionally down from 49.7 in March, signalling marginal deterioration in operating conditions, according to the survey conducted by financial information service provider Markit and sponsored by…


Another 20% Dollar Tree Inflationary Warning

by John Galt May 2, 2016 20:20 ET A little over a decade ago, I pointed out the hypocrisy of product size inflation in an old article about my Dollar Tree inflation indicator. I noted, of course simple things like 4 packs of batteries being changed to 3, 16 oz. of dry cereal being reduced to 12 oz., and candy bars being reduced from 6 oz. to microscopic specs of something wrapped in paper. Today, I encountered something amazing at the U.S. discount retailer the Dollar Tree which should alert everyone…


Warren Buffett Sees Derivatives as a Potential “Time Bomb” for Financial Markets

by John Galt May 1, 2016 22:40 ET Weird. CNBC did not report on this subject on their web page. Marketwatch did not make a big deal about this story either: The Financial Times of London, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, hell, even that rag the New York Times Business section do not even have this headline: Buffett sees derivatives as potential “time bomb” in financial markets So my American readers can thank the Communist Chinese government’s semi-official official propaganda outlet, Xinhua?!?!?! Yup: OMAHA, Nebraska, April 30 (Xinhua) — Warren Buffett, Berkshire…


$1294.90

by John Galt May 1, 2016 19:05 ET Gold closed on Friday with a price of $1294.90. Why is that significant? Because it should alert any sane person that a long term trend line has been broken but more importantly, the three month consolidation and base building period is now over. First a little chartistic charsima courtesy of gold: Way, way, back when Jim Cramer was telling us it was still safe to own Bear Stearns, the precious metals markets experienced a similar consolidation and decline following a rally above $600…


04.27 23:05 ET: Bank of Japan Screws Yellen, TAKES NO ACTION!

by John Galt April 27, 2016 23:05 ET Japan has elected to maintain its current levels of funding with rates and stimulus unchanged. Kuroda basically just told Janet Yellen to go fawk herself. The Japanese Yen just soared against the U.S. Dollar on the announcement (screenshot via BloombergTV): The candlestick on the 1 minute chart via NetDania was even more impressive: Meanwhile in the U.S., S&P and Dow futures, well, shit the bed on the announcement: Everyone knew something was up when Kuroda delayed the announcement but to see this type…


The Fed Goes Full Retard Leaving Investors Totally Befuddled

by John Galt April 27, 2016 22:30 ET James Grant summed up today’s FOMC meeting better than any other talking head today (via Bloomberg-TV): “They remind me in the aggregate of the most novice of novice retail investors” That actually sums up the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee quite nicely. What did they say today to trigger this response? From the Federal Reserve website: Press Release Release Date: April 27, 2016 For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor…


04.18 0500 Market Update: Cue the Pump Monkeys, OPEC panic Fading

by John Galt April 18, 2016 05:00 ET Last night’s Asian session was interesting as the Japanese earthquakes and OPEC disaster in Doha provided the deflationary double whammy which scared investors out of Tokyo and Shanghai with sizable drops in those markets(charts via YahooFinance): With a 3.4% drop that was pretty nasty. Shanghai was down 1.44%: Meanwhile, US equity futures have recovered substantially since last night’s initial fall as the central bankers began intervening when Europe opened:   With Europe beginning to recover and crude oil prices pausing in their declines…


04.17 DeathCamelBurger Edition: Saudis Choke in Doha, WTI Crashes below $40 on the Open, Stock Futures Falling

by John Galt April 17, 2016 19:15ET Apparently the House of Saud would rather eat their rides than finance them as today’s Doha, Qatar OPEC meeting ended in discord and disaster for the now flailing for a reason to exist organization. The results? WTI-Crude opened up down over 6% along with Brent and created a huge disaster for the longs that enjoyed the short covering rally of the past few weeks (Charts courtesy of Finviz.com/prices delayed 15 mins):   Note: WTI rolled over to the June 2016 contract starting today; on…


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