The videos are everywhere, the fake videos are everywhere, the fog of fog is everywhere.
But the reality is that it would appear that the use of older drones to soak up IDF air defenses to clear a path for ballistic missiles might have been effective in some parts of Israel tonight.
The response against Iran however, has also been telegraphed by the Netanyahu government is that a response is forthcoming (via Israel National News):
Sunday, 2:00 a.m.: Israeli officials say there will be a strong response to the Iranian attacks.
The problem is that if the response is as severe as the Israelis indicate, the UIOLI factor comes into effect. There were all kinds of Fox News “experts” on claiming that because the Iranian regime is unpopular with their people and that any secondary attack would be muted.
As one of my old social media friends posted, the counterstrike will probably be quite severe with just this one photo now burned into the IDF and IAF leadership’s mind.
This brings the story forward to the next 24 hours. When Israel retaliates against Iran, if anyone thinks the mullahs won’t suddenly be heroes to their own people and many citizens in the Arab world when civilians start to lose their life due to Israel Air Force strikes, then your knowledge of the region is zero.
That flamethrower already on a pile of dry tinder in the region due to war in Gaza will inflame the streets throughout the region and push the Mullahs to engage in an action known as UIOLI:
Use It or Lose It
This would mean unleashing everything they can in their arsenal in coordination with militias in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and of course Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The decades of warfare involving western powers and Israel has taught the region’s leaders a very powerful lesson and that is there is no victory without martyrs. This also means the efforts will be made to use every part of the vast missile arsenal before Israeli, and possibly US forces decide to liquidate weapon stores, launch sites, and the Iranian nuclear program.
The next twelve to twenty-four hours will be crucial and require rapid dissection of any communications between Tehran, Beijing, Jerusalem, Washington, and Moscow. The risk of a violent spiral out of control exists and will require someone blinking, the problem is that once everything has been expended, then basically it becomes an issue for the streets of Islamic cities around the world.
And that’s when even worse events can occur as the planned stability of the region’s current leadership can be overthrown without warning.
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