By John Galt
UPDATED 8/27 22:53 -
No update yet from the NHC but the 0500 news will be more important. In the mean time, here’s the NYC radar….
UPDATED 8/27 17:00 -
Instead of burying it below, here is the latest update as the storm is set to emerge back into the Atlantic and possibly get a little bit more energy and fuel to increase the storm strength slightly overnight.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 272055
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
…IRENE ABOUT TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…36.2N 76.0W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM SSE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 340 MI…545 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS…DELAWARE BAY…CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT…NEW
YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…LONG ISLAND SOUND…COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND…BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION
ACCOMPANIED BY A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT…AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES…465 KM.
A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE OBSERVING SITE AT OREGON INLET NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH…WITH A
GUST TO 81 MPH. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH WITH A GUST TO 74 MPH
WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB…28.05 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE
BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA…INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE…DESTRUCTIVE…AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC…AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES…FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS…
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS…COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS…AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
MARYLAND…DELAWARE…AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES…700 PM EDT AND 900 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
UPDATED 8/27 12:15-
Latest update from NHC is below. Windspeed down to 85 mph.
UPDATED 8/27 07:30 -
Thankfully some dry air is being sucked into the core which is weakening the storm but the surge and wave action will be an issue all the way up the Eastern Seaboard.
UPDATED 8/26 0500
And that’s why hurricanes drive the forecasters nuts some times. The storm looked as if it were going to strengthen last night then decided to weaken to a Cat 2 with 110 mph but due to the size of the storm it is still quite dangerous. Follow the instructions of local authorities and don’t wait until the surge is approaching to make the brilliant decisions of “duh I need to evacuate.” Do it when ordered to do so and don’t become one of the idiots on television deserving derision.
UPDATED 8/25 17:00 ET -
An eyewall replacement cycle looks almost complete which means she is intensifying; do not be shocked to see a strong Cat 3 or possibly Cat 4 by tomorrow morning.
UPDATED 8/25 05:00 ET -
Models are not looking good for the East Coast. A hurricane watch has been issued for most of the North Carolina coast. Folks, it’s time if you haven’t done so already, to get your preps in order if you live anywhere from Wilmington, NC to coastal Maine.
UPDATED 8/24 22:56 ET -
No U.S. Watches or Warnings; YET. I’ll post a full update with latest model runs at 0500 in the morning.
UPDATED 8/24 18:05 ET -
This is looking ugly. If the path confirms, Wall Street will NOT be open Monday, mark my words. Let’s hope it turns out to sea.
UPDATED 8/24 08:03 ET -
Now a Cat 3 and I think it could easily reach a high end Cat 4 before tomorrow. See advisory 16A below.
UPDATED 8/24 07:30 ET -
Now the panic seems to be starting on TWC and other news outlets. First the Bushquake and now the threat of a repeat of the Long Island Express hurricane quite possibly this weekend. The media will be more fun to track rather than the actual storm. However if you live anywhere from Eastern North Carolina to Nova Scotia, now is the time to review your hurricane preps and check list.
UPDATED 8/23 05:15 ET -
Thankfully it would appear my neck of the woods will get passed by this storm based on the latest data. Unfortunately the entire Eastern seaboard of the U.S. could be dealing with Irene before all is said and done. Hopefully it will recurve out to sea and miss the U.S. but that seems unlikely now. Models have been updated with the latest runs below.
UPDATED 8/22 17:30 ET -
While this “appears” to be a non-Florida bound storm, some models hint at a NC then Northeastern Seaboard solution which is far worse. Imagine a storm hitting the shorelines of NJ, NY, CT, RI, and MA on Labor Day weekend.
Let’s hope it does recurve out to sea.
The model runs at 0000Z and tomorrow at 1200Z will really set the table for either panic or calm.
UPDATED 8/22 07:28 ET -
The model runs this morning are looking more favorable to my neck of the woods but if the move towards South Carolina bears out, there is the potential for a major hurricane impacting that region causing major problems. All interests in Florida up to the Carolinas need to start reviewing their hurricane plans. Updated model runs are included.
UPDATED 8/21 07:15 ET -
Well, Florida is now well under the “cone of death” so if things look bad here at the end of the week, needless to say my updates will be more focused on the storm rather than other affairs in the world. - John
Quick edit….
This is why I am concerned about this particular storm:
Definition of a “Hebert Box” from Wikipedia (I’ll post the Weather Channel video if it becomes available again soon):
An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert’s Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]
That’s why my personal interest is at a major peak and updates will be daily on these pages.
Satellite photos will update automatically from the NHC:
NOAA VISIBLE IMAGE - T.S. IRENE
And the infrared updates automatically also:
NOAA INFRARED - T.S. IRENE
SWFMUD & NCAR runs (click to enlarge to full size):
HURRICANE IRENE advisories – 8/27 1100 EDT ADVISORY#29:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 271448
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
…IRENE BATTERING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…35.2N 76.4W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM W OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.11 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND FROM MERRIMACK RIVER NORTHWARD
TO EASTPORT MAINE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS…DELAWARE BAY…CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT…NEW
YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…LONG ISLAND SOUND…COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND…BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES…415 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 87 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 63 MPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB…28.11 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA…INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE…DESTRUCTIVE…AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC…AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES…FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS…
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS…COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS…AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA…EASTERN MARYLAND…DELAWARE…AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
=================================================
Forecast Discussion#26 8/26 1700 EDT:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 262049
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY HIGHER WINDS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT…DATA FROM NEAR THE CONCLUSION OF THE
FLIGHT SUPPORT A SLIGHT LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DID
REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF
50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER…SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF
THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT
225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS
ERODED. ALTHOUGH IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER DURING THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS…THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY RESTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST…IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER…IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS…STORM SURGE FLOODING…AND EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND.
IRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UP
THE EAST COAST…AND BE MOVING AT ABOUT 15-17 KT AS IT APPROACHES
LONG ISLAND…MUCH SLOWER THAN NORMAL FOR STORMS IN THIS
AREA…WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN MANY AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
CYCLES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 31.7N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 33.4N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 35.5N 76.3W 75 KT 85 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 38.2N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 28/1800Z 41.8N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 50.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/1800Z 56.5N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z 58.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
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