Before these hallowed pages venture into the CPI report, another report was issued today which is a direct reflection of the stagflationary threat that the Fed might actually acknowledge at its next meeting.
Unless of course President Trump hauls all of the Fed Governors away in leg irons.
The Real Earnings report was released by the BLS this morning at 8:30 a.m. Eastern and weirdly enough it didn’t get as much coverage as the inflation report. The key excerpt pertains to hourly employees as measured versus CPI-W and has this one sentence which will catch my reader’s attention:
Decreased? But it’s the “Golden Age” or whatever we are calling this era now.
I. Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI
As my readers know this is this author’s favorite measure for persistent inflation as reflected at the consumer level and believe it or not it ticked up in December despite all of the proclamations by politicians and television economists.
If the FOMC cuts again, they deserve every bit of the derision serious economists lay on their doorstep.
II. CPI for Items Consumers Actually Buy or Pay For
I titled this for a reason as when one looks at some of the overlooked individual items, regardless of weighting, it becomes quite apparent that the “sticky” inflation is still there, still increasing, and destroying consumer confidence in the economy just like the 1970’s.
For this section, I shall simply let the charts tell the tale of the tape, all from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis’ FRED website.
Rent
Yikes. Hopefully I don’t have to look for roommates in my van down by the river.
Water, Sewer, and Trash Collection
Or maybe I had best get a roommate for my van so we can afford the garbage collection.
Electricity
I was told all those turbines, solar panels, and data centers would allow me to keep my Christmas Lights up year round. Guess not.
Apparel
Naked is still cheaper.
Ground Beef
And no, I won’t eat that plant based overpriced tripe either. Nor the worms.
Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice
Coffee
Scratch breakfast drinks off the menu for the poorest Americans.
A Good Stiff Drink
How can anyone look at these numbers sober?
This is just a sampling and no, these pages are not going to entertain anyone who posts the nonsensical propaganda about “health insurance” dropping in price again. Because those numbers are more fictional than the white notebooks the DoJ gave out full of the so-called Epstein files.
At some point the Federal Reserve has to acknowledge that they have eased too soon, too far, and too fast. A stagflationary threat exists in the first half of this year and they might be able to slow it but with base metal prices skyrocketing it would appear the secondary inflation wave is washing ashore, with or without the stupid tariffs.
The simple thing for my readers to consider is this; are you paying more for products and services than you did six months ago, one year ago, or even five years ago?
Unless you’re a cult member, the obvious answer is yes, and no sustained price declines are yet on the horizon.
