The average America is pretty much ignorant about where or what Odessa is, the Donbas, or if Kiev is anything but a meal made with chicken.
The average American is about to get a very, very harsh education on geography, war, the end of empire, and worse, out of control inflation. The Federal Reserve is now boxed into a corner that will be the ultimate nightmare for the world. If the Fed raises rates into the teeth of an almost certain recession by the 3rd quarter, stagflation could easily U-turn within two quarters into out of control deflation. If the Fed fails to provide adequate liquidity to US and world markets, then a deflationary death spiral for assets is almost all but guaranteed.
The commodity price explosion will cause most of this in coordination with incompetent political leadership.
Gold has begun it’s run after the invasion as the traditional safe haven for the world, not cryptocurrency:
As the videos emerge of the carnage plus the sanctions increase, I would not be shocked to see gold top $2000 before this week ends.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude oil, the basis for gas prices, has skyrocketed past $100 per bbl (from CNBC.com):
The remainder of the energy complex is pretty much up 6% plus across the board. The immediate impact on that will be panic buying and hedging as remaining sanctions against Russia have yet to be announced and further destabilization of the energy complex is quite possible.
With the Ukrainian supply chain off the market for the foreseeable future, other metals plus the grain complex are also flying higher this morning:
The impacts of these sudden price changes and further shortages which will hit the world markets downstream have yet to be accounted for. In Paris, for example, wheat futures are up 15% and that’s before the new sanctions have been announced.
The world changed last night.
The bill is coming due.