While there is so much I could write about starting with last Friday’s events, and believe me, this author will, the story of this fiasco hit home when I finally got off my lazy posterior and started to recover some of my really old writings off hard drives I keep in storage.
Low and behold what did this author find?
Before I start ranting about my favorite measure of everyday consumer inflation via my Dollar Tree indicator, here’s an example of the packaging shrinkflation and changes to the US dollar’s purchasing power that I found from my ancient writings from the Great Financial Crisis era, courtesy of Walgreens.
Smaller product, higher prices, yet we were being told in 2007 through 2020 that this was all a figment of our imagination.
So, why was this an inspiration for this particular article on a Sunday night?
Yesterday, Saturday August 2, 2025, my wonderful wife wanted to go slum around and see if there was anything cool at the Dollar Tree, a retailer I’m renaming the Tariff Tree. Obviously, armed with my cellphone camera, I’m going to see if the tariff impacts have begun to hit a retailer beaten by inflation with an initial increase in prices from $1.00 to $1.25 in 2021. So has it gotten worse?
Let’s review some history and compare to the current era the best that I can with a tough of hedonic snark added to the analysis.
First off, from the archives, this is what $6.00 purchased from the Dollar Tree in 2006.
Here is a photograph of the original receipt for verification.
Ah, those were the days when our dollar was still worth 16 cents in 1913 dollars.
After the increase in prices at the Dollar Tree in 2021, it became even more blatant there and at other retailers. For example, below is a comparison of Mountain Dew bottles from the recent post-pandemic inflationary surge.
But let’s fast forward to this weekend’s shopping trip compared to yesteryear to get some idea of just how much inflation we’ve endured thanks to Federal Reserve central planning, government incompetence, and the media willing to cover for the big lie from all parties involved.
The big issue is always the rear tissue (sorry, not sorry). In 2006 one could buy this, 704 sheets of 4.27×4 inch toilet paper for $1.00.
Compared to the toilet paper on the shelf today at the Dollar Tree which now costs $1.50 and provides one with 240 sheets of 3.8×4 inch toilet paper:
That is totally unsatisfactory, but to each his or hers own but obviously your dollar does not stretch nor wipe even close as much as it used to.
What about something simple, like the orange drink? From 2006:
1.06 liters for $1.00. Not bad. Let’s see what the modern day version provides for a similar quantity at $1.25:
I’m sure the “hedonic” adjustments say the same watered down sugary citrus drink is really only $0.80 cents after that because it’s in a better package for the consumer or something stupid like that.
What about the dish soap in the picture? 25 fluid ounces of what was a relative brand name for 2006 for $1.00.
Thankfully it’s only $1.50 for the modern “hedonically” better name brand with how many ounces again?
Does that say 9.7 fluid ounces?
Yes, it does and for the math impaired who think we are getting a 1200% reduction in our pharmaceutical drug prices, that breaks down like this.
2006: $0.04 per ounce
2025: $0.15 per ounce
But don’t worry, per the BLS statisticians, those are higher quality ounces.
I probably shouldn’t screw around with the light bulb analogy (sorry, not sorry again), but it’s worth analyzing what happen when one imports all of their light bulbs from China in 2006 when they were incandescent and still so in the modern era when they are now LED based.
First from 2006, where one could buy 4 for $1.00:
Now for the modern day version where one gets 2 big bulbs for $1.25:
Since the odds are pretty good both products will have similar lifespans, it’s not hard to figure out which one is a better deal, except our dollar is worth a lot less now.
How have the tariffs impacted the Dollar Tree beyond the representations above?
Let’s revisit the home cleaning department to get some idea of the stupidity where six common throwaway household sponges have increased from $1.00 to $1.50 in price.
That’s an increase of 36% since 2020 if one hasn’t been paying attention in math class.
Meanwhile, as the toy manufacturers have been warning, toy prices are on the increase and the Dollar Tree is no exception with prices up from $1.00 in 2020 to $1.75 today.
Again, that’s 43% for those who are pharmaceutical impaired.
Not all of these price increases are on President Trump’s trade war policies but as the rate of increase accelerates due to his tariff jihad, it’s an inescapable and logical conclusion that the poor, once again, will bear the brunt of absurdly bad policy decisions by our central banks and political elites.
Sadly, the level of deflationary policy impact necessary to reverse this course of permanent embedded inflation might well be too much for the economy and the people of this nation to handle.
These pages will attempt to continue updating these prices via my Dollar Tree Inflation Indicator as the quarters move forward.